The Odds Desk · live
What the markets are saying
Real probabilities for the events people are watching — priced across Polymarket and Kalshi, refreshed continuously, never paywalled.
Biggest movers · live
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in August?
42%
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
24%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?
11%
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?
20%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in August?
49%
Will FUT Esports Win the CS2 EWC 2026?
23%
- Licensed (CFTC-regulated DCM)
- No min deposit
- Since 2021
Advertising disclosure: WeeBet earns a commission if you sign up via this link — it doesn't affect our rating. 18+/21+ · Gamble responsibly.
Politics
See all politics →Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Economy
See all economy →Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
Sports
See all sports →World
See all world →Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
All markets
Every active market, ranked by activity across both platforms.
| Market | Platform | YES | 24h Vol | Resolves | Watch / alert |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | polymarket | 18%▼5 | $2.0M | 4mo | |
| Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia PhilliesMiami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies | polymarket | 5%▼32 | $269k | 2h | |
| Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay RaysBaltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays | polymarket | 11%▼28 | $983k | 2h | |
| Will there be a recession in 2026? — Starts | kalshi | 7% | $2k | 5mo | |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado RockiesLos Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies | polymarket | 82%▲17 | $843k | 2d | |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | polymarket | 17% | $234k | 4mo | |
| New York Mets vs. Chicago White SoxNew York Mets vs. Chicago White Sox | polymarket | 4%▼52 | $314k | 5d | |
| Athletics vs. Houston AstrosAthletics vs. Houston Astros | polymarket | 94%▲61 | $694k | 5d | |
| LoL: GIANTX vs G2 Esports (BO3) - LEC Regular SeasonLoL: GIANTX vs G2 Esports (BO3) - LEC Regular Season | polymarket | 58%▲42 | $675k | 3h | |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...? | polymarket | 4% | $123k | 4mo | |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?Putin out as President of Russia by...? | polymarket | 8% | $57k | 4mo | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | polymarket | 6% | $72k | 1mo | |
| Atlanta Braves vs. Minnesota TwinsAtlanta Braves vs. Minnesota Twins | polymarket | 10%▼41 | $610k | 1d | |
| Washington Nationals vs. Texas RangersWashington Nationals vs. Texas Rangers | polymarket | 5%▼39 | $606k | 3d | |
| Chicago White Sox vs. Chicago CubsChicago White Sox vs. Chicago Cubs | polymarket | 19%▼22 | $594k | 4h | |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Which party will win the House in 2026? | polymarket | 88% | $72k | 2mo | |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Spencer Johnson vs Cristian GarinUS Open, Qualification ATP: Spencer Johnson vs Cristian Garin | polymarket | 53% | $193k | 6d | |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Los Angeles DodgersPittsburgh Pirates vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | polymarket | 28%▼4 | $562k | 4d | |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York YankeesToronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees | polymarket | 4%▼30 | $546k | 4d | |
| Chicago White Sox vs. Chicago CubsChicago White Sox vs. Chicago Cubs | polymarket | 36%▼3 | $546k | 1d | |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Erika Andreeva vs Mariam BolkvadzeUS Open, Qualification WTA: Erika Andreeva vs Mariam Bolkvadze | polymarket | 18% | $123k | 6d | |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | polymarket | 8%▲1 | $355k | 4mo | |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Joel Schwaerzler vs Gustavo HeideUS Open, Qualification ATP: Joel Schwaerzler vs Gustavo Heide | polymarket | 60% | $128k | 6d | |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Mia Ristic vs Ayana AkliUS Open, Qualification WTA: Mia Ristic vs Ayana Akli | polymarket | 48% | $63k | 6d | |
| Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 | polymarket | 5% | $54k | 26mo | |
| Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in August?What price will Bitcoin hit in August? | polymarket | 80%▲77 | $507k | 7d | |
| Detroit Tigers vs. Pittsburgh PiratesDetroit Tigers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates | polymarket | 44%▲2 | $498k | 1d | |
| Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee BrewersAtlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewers | polymarket | 7%▼39 | $489k | 4d | |
| Los Angeles Angels vs. Texas RangersLos Angeles Angels vs. Texas Rangers | polymarket | 5%▼39 | $371k | 5d | |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election? | polymarket | 71%▲1 | $104k | 1mo | |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Los Angeles DodgersPittsburgh Pirates vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | polymarket | 5%▼24 | $423k | 5d | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | polymarket | 36%▲4 | $120k | 4mo | |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red SoxArizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red Sox | polymarket | 77%▲34 | $418k | 2d | |
| Chicago Cubs vs. Seattle MarinersChicago Cubs vs. Seattle Mariners | polymarket | 35%▼16 | $415k | 4d | |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Fed Decision in September? | polymarket | 67%▼2 | $414k | 22d | |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Brazil Presidential Election | polymarket | 63%▼1 | $90k | 1mo |
How to read this
A YES price ≈ the market-implied probability the outcome happens. 24h volume and open interest are liquidity proxies — thin markets move fast on small trades. Always read the full resolution criteria on the source platform before trading.