The Odds Desk · live
What the markets are saying
Real probabilities for the events people are watching — priced across Polymarket and Kalshi, refreshed continuously, never paywalled.
Biggest movers · live
Polymarket▲ 44 pts
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 16, 2026?
90%
Polymarket▼ 43 pts
Bitcoin Up or Down on October 15?
9%
Polymarket▼ 29 pts
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in October?
33%
Polymarket▲ 27 pts
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in October?
92%
Polymarket▼ 25 pts
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 15?
70%
Polymarket▲ 22 pts
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
73%
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Politics
See all politics →Polymarket$63k
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
37%YES▼1
resolves 20dTrade on Polymarket ↗
Polymarket$49k
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
63%YES▬
resolves 20dTrade on Polymarket ↗
Economy
See all economy →Polymarket$1.7M
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
73%YES▲22
resolves 14dTrade on Polymarket ↗
Polymarket$811k
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
25%YES▼22
resolves 14dTrade on Polymarket ↗
Sports
See all sports →Polymarket$657k
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Arthur Fils vs Botic van de Zandschulp
6%YES▼79
resolves 4dTrade on Polymarket ↗
Polymarket$901k
Wuhan Tennis Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Jelena Ostapenko
4%YES▬
resolves 7dTrade on Polymarket ↗
World
See all world →Polymarket$90k
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
13%YES▼1
resolves 3moTrade on Polymarket ↗
Polymarket$232k
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?
80%YES▼1
resolves 16dTrade on Polymarket ↗
Polymarket$55k
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?
8%YES▼2
resolves 2moTrade on Polymarket ↗
All markets
Every active market, ranked by activity across both platforms.
55 markets
| Market | Platform | YES | 24h Vol | Resolves | Watch / alert |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseBalance of Power: 2026 Midterms | polymarket | 63% | $84k | 19d | |
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Which party will win the Senate in 2026? | polymarket | 37%▼1 | $63k | 19d | |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HouseBalance of Power: 2026 Midterms | polymarket | 29% | $61k | 19d | |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Which party will win the Senate in 2026? | polymarket | 63% | $49k | 19d | |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Which party will win the House in 2026? | polymarket | 10% | $80k | 19d | |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Which party will win the House in 2026? | polymarket | 91% | $552k | 19d | |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseBalance of Power: 2026 Midterms | polymarket | 9%▼1 | $72k | 19d | |
| Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?Indiana enacts data center moratorium by...? | polymarket | 13%▼5 | $2.1M | 14mo | |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Fed Decision in October? | polymarket | 73%▲22 | $1.7M | 13d | |
| Seahawks vs. BroncosSeahawks vs. Broncos | polymarket | 57%▼2 | $518k | 10h | |
| Spread: Seahawks (-2.5)Seahawks vs. Broncos | polymarket | 51%▲1 | $73k | 10h | |
| Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?Anthropic announces bankruptcy by...? | polymarket | 9% | $64k | 14mo | |
| Shanghai Rolex Masters: Arthur Fils vs Botic van de ZandschulpShanghai Rolex Masters: Arthur Fils vs Botic van de Zandschulp | polymarket | 6%▼79 | $657k | 3d | |
| Wuhan Tennis Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Jelena OstapenkoWuhan Tennis Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Jelena Ostapenko | polymarket | 4% | $901k | 6d | |
| Will there be a recession in 2026? — Starts | kalshi | 4% | $2k | 3mo | |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Fed Decision in October? | polymarket | 25%▼22 | $811k | 13d | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | polymarket | 13%▼1 | $90k | 2mo | |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | polymarket | 5% | $47k | 2mo | |
| Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay RaysCleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays | polymarket | 94%▲53 | $767k | 4d | |
| Shanghai Rolex Masters: Learner Tien vs Casper RuudShanghai Rolex Masters: Learner Tien vs Casper Ruud | polymarket | 4%▼56 | $299k | 3d | |
| Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?Next French Presidential Election | polymarket | 46%▲1 | $130k | 6mo | |
| KBO: SSG Landers vs. Kia TigersKBO: SSG Landers vs. Kia Tigers | polymarket | 10%▼12 | $642k | 1d | |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?US-Iran ceasefire continues through...? | polymarket | 80%▼1 | $232k | 16d | |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...? | polymarket | 5% | $73k | 2mo | |
| Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - Stake Pulse Beat III Group DCounter-Strike: MIBR vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - Stake Pulse Beat III Group D | polymarket | 34%▼23 | $566k | 2h | |
| Rovereto: Laura Mair vs Lucrezia StefaniniRovereto: Laura Mair vs Lucrezia Stefanini | polymarket | 12%▼11 | $295k | 3d | |
| Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?Next French Presidential Election | polymarket | 12%▲1 | $54k | 6mo | |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | polymarket | 17%▼1 | $63k | 2mo | |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 | polymarket | 6% | $81k | 25mo | |
| Will there be no Hormuz agreement?Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms? | polymarket | 89%▲4 | $168k | 19d | |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? | polymarket | 28%▼3 | $407k | 12d | |
| Olbia: Laurent Lokoli vs Georgii KravchenkoOlbia: Laurent Lokoli vs Georgii Kravchenko | polymarket | 6% | $329k | 4d | |
| Will oil be below $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?Who wins the Senate pending oil below $85 before the midterms? | polymarket | 13% | $63k | 19d | |
| Counter-Strike: 9z vs Team Falcons (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship Group ACounter-Strike: 9z vs Team Falcons (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship Group A | polymarket | 31% | $456k | 3h | |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Presidential Election Winner 2028 | polymarket | 20%▲3 | $54k | 25mo | |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Texas Senate Election Winner | polymarket | 38% | $60k | 19d | |
| Will there be no Hormuz agreement?Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23? | polymarket | 96%▲5 | $159k | 19d | |
| Will oil be below $85 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?Who wins the Senate pending oil below $85 before the midterms? | polymarket | 8% | $63k | 19d | |
| Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FURIA (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship Group BCounter-Strike: Legacy vs FURIA (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship Group B | polymarket | 43% | $386k | 8h | |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?UEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion | polymarket | 16%▲2 | $156k | 7mo | |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Texas Senate Election Winner | polymarket | 63%▼1 | $51k | 19d | |
| Will Bitcoin be above $99,999.99 by Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET? | kalshi | 30% | $1k | 2mo | |
| Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Democrats win the Senate?Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms? | polymarket | 6%▼3 | $75k | 19d | |
| Will Liverpool win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?UEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion | polymarket | 5% | $56k | 8mo | |
| Will there be a recession in 2027? — Yes | kalshi | 20% | $5k | 15mo | |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 | polymarket | 15%▼1 | $63k | 25mo | |
| Will oil be below $80 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?Who wins the Senate pending oil above or below $80 before the midterms? | polymarket | 8%▲2 | $63k | 19d | |
| Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?Who wins the Senate pending oil below $85 before the midterms? | polymarket | 51% | $49k | 19d | |
| Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 | polymarket | 6% | $75k | 25mo | |
| Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?Ohio Governor Election Winner | polymarket | 71%▲2 | $64k | 19d | |
| Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?Next French Presidential Election | polymarket | 13% | $55k | 6mo | |
| Will Ohio enact a data center moratorium by June 30, 2027?Ohio enacts data center moratorium by...? | polymarket | 16%▼4 | $46k | 8mo | |
| Olbia: Dimitar Kuzmanov vs Damir DzumhurOlbia: Dimitar Kuzmanov vs Damir Dzumhur | polymarket | 8%▼33 | $102k | 6d | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? | polymarket | 8%▼2 | $55k | 1mo | |
| Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-10-15?Olympique Lyonnais vs. Crystal Palace FC | polymarket | 36%▲5 | $73k | 3h |
How to read this
A YES price ≈ the market-implied probability the outcome happens. 24h volume and open interest are liquidity proxies — thin markets move fast on small trades. Always read the full resolution criteria on the source platform before trading.