The Odds Desk · live
What the markets are saying
Real probabilities for the events people are watching — priced across Polymarket and Kalshi, refreshed continuously, never paywalled.
Biggest movers · live
Polymarket▲ 69 pts
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?
86%
Polymarket▲ 51 pts
Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?
56%
Polymarket▲ 37 pts
Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 October 5-11?
38%
Polymarket▲ 27 pts
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 9?
77%
Polymarket▼ 23 pts
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in October?
58%
Polymarket▼ 21 pts
Thunder vs. Hawks
34%
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Politics
See all politics →Polymarket$85k
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
63%YES▼1
resolves 26dTrade on Polymarket ↗
Polymarket$98k
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
36%YES▬
resolves 26dTrade on Polymarket ↗
Polymarket$185k
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
10%YES▬
resolves 26dTrade on Polymarket ↗
Economy
See all economy →Polymarket$89k
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
15%YES▼1
resolves 20dTrade on Polymarket ↗
Polymarket$129k
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
85%YES▲1
resolves 20dTrade on Polymarket ↗
Sports
See all sports →Polymarket$1.6M
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs
42%YES▲1
resolves todayTrade on Polymarket ↗
Polymarket$1.4M
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Mariano Navone vs Pablo Carreno Busta
10%YES▼54
resolves 4dTrade on Polymarket ↗
Polymarket$1.2M
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Yi Zhou vs Lorenzo Musetti
53%YES▲34
resolves 7dTrade on Polymarket ↗
World
See all world →Polymarket$72k
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
18%YES▬
resolves 3moTrade on Polymarket ↗
All markets
Every active market, ranked by activity across both platforms.
48 markets
| Market | Platform | YES | 24h Vol | Resolves | Watch / alert |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseBalance of Power: 2026 Midterms | polymarket | 63%▼1 | $80k | 25d | |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Which party will win the House in 2026? | polymarket | 91% | $147k | 25d | |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Which party will win the Senate in 2026? | polymarket | 63%▼1 | $85k | 25d | |
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Which party will win the Senate in 2026? | polymarket | 36% | $98k | 25d | |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Which party will win the House in 2026? | polymarket | 10% | $185k | 25d | |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HouseBalance of Power: 2026 Midterms | polymarket | 28%▲1 | $150k | 25d | |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseBalance of Power: 2026 Midterms | polymarket | 9% | $70k | 25d | |
| Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - ESL Pro League PlayoffsCounter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs | polymarket | 42%▲1 | $1.6M | 6h | |
| Shanghai Rolex Masters: Mariano Navone vs Pablo Carreno BustaShanghai Rolex Masters: Mariano Navone vs Pablo Carreno Busta | polymarket | 10%▼54 | $1.4M | 4d | |
| Will North Carolina enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026?North Carolina enacts data center moratorium by...? | polymarket | 5%▼2 | $58k | 2mo | |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta BravesLos Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves | polymarket | 94%▲44 | $1.3M | 4d | |
| Shanghai Rolex Masters: Yi Zhou vs Lorenzo MusettiShanghai Rolex Masters: Yi Zhou vs Lorenzo Musetti | polymarket | 53%▲34 | $1.2M | 7d | |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Diego PadresMilwaukee Brewers vs. San Diego Padres | polymarket | 16%▼29 | $1.2M | 4d | |
| Will there be a recession in 2026? — Starts | kalshi | 4% | $3k | 3mo | |
| Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?Anthropic announces bankruptcy by...? | polymarket | 9% | $148k | 14mo | |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | polymarket | 15% | $117k | 2mo | |
| China Open: Jelena Ostapenko vs Elise MertensChina Open: Jelena Ostapenko vs Elise Mertens | polymarket | 5%▼37 | $256k | 2d | |
| Samsun: Alicia Dudeney vs Ayla AksuSamsun: Alicia Dudeney vs Ayla Aksu | polymarket | 12%▼54 | $119k | 4d | |
| Shanghai Rolex Masters: Marcos Giron vs Sebastian BaezShanghai Rolex Masters: Marcos Giron vs Sebastian Baez | polymarket | 11%▼45 | $268k | 4d | |
| Villena: Daniel Rincon vs Pedro MartinezVillena: Daniel Rincon vs Pedro Martinez | polymarket | 12%▼54 | $212k | 5d | |
| Shanghai Rolex Masters, Qualification: Hugo Gaston vs Liam DraxlShanghai Rolex Masters, Qualification: Hugo Gaston vs Liam Draxl | polymarket | 14% | $181k | 2d | |
| Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?Indiana enacts data center moratorium by...? | polymarket | 11%▼4 | $100k | 14mo | |
| Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?Next French Presidential Election | polymarket | 41%▼2 | $64k | 6mo | |
| Will Ohio enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026?Ohio enacts data center moratorium by...? | polymarket | 4%▼1 | $53k | 2mo | |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Diego PadresMilwaukee Brewers vs. San Diego Padres | polymarket | 95%▲52 | $619k | 5d | |
| Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit (BO3) - ESL Pro League PlayoffsCounter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs | polymarket | 42%▼3 | $335k | 7h | |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Fed Decision in October? | polymarket | 15%▼1 | $89k | 19d | |
| Villena: Francesco Maestrelli vs Oliver TarvetVillena: Francesco Maestrelli vs Oliver Tarvet | polymarket | 12%▼25 | $272k | 3d | |
| Palermo: Federico Arnaboldi vs Kalin IvanovskiPalermo: Federico Arnaboldi vs Kalin Ivanovski | polymarket | 14% | $206k | 2d | |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | polymarket | 5%▼1 | $82k | 2mo | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | polymarket | 18% | $72k | 2mo | |
| Villena: Oliver Tarvet vs Laslo DjereVillena: Oliver Tarvet vs Laslo Djere | polymarket | 11% | $196k | 5d | |
| Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?UEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion | polymarket | 22%▲1 | $51k | 7mo | |
| Shanghai Rolex Masters: Mattia Bellucci vs Yi ZhouShanghai Rolex Masters: Mattia Bellucci vs Yi Zhou | polymarket | 16% | $469k | 4d | |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Presidential Election Winner 2028 | polymarket | 20% | $182k | 25mo | |
| Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-10-09?BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. SV Werder Bremen | polymarket | 72%▼1 | $70k | 4h | |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? | polymarket | 36%▲1 | $94k | 18d | |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | polymarket | 5% | $53k | 2mo | |
| Shanghai Rolex Masters: Marco Trungelliti vs Rei SakamotoShanghai Rolex Masters: Marco Trungelliti vs Rei Sakamoto | polymarket | 5% | $91k | 4d | |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Presidential Election Winner 2028 | polymarket | 14%▲1 | $52k | 25mo | |
| Will Bitcoin be above $99,999.99 by Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET? | kalshi | 29% | $6k | 2mo | |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Fed Decision in October? | polymarket | 85%▲1 | $129k | 19d | |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 | polymarket | 15% | $76k | 25mo | |
| Will there be a recession in 2027? — Yes | kalshi | 18% | $6k | 15mo | |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Presidential Election Winner 2028 | polymarket | 5% | $71k | 25mo | |
| Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028?Anthropic announces bankruptcy by...? | polymarket | 20%▲3 | $144k | 27mo | |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Presidential Election Winner 2028 | polymarket | 7%▼1 | $186k | 25mo | |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Texas Senate Election Winner | polymarket | 38%▲3 | $116k | 25d |
How to read this
A YES price ≈ the market-implied probability the outcome happens. 24h volume and open interest are liquidity proxies — thin markets move fast on small trades. Always read the full resolution criteria on the source platform before trading.