The Odds Desk · live
What the markets are saying
Real probabilities for the events people are watching — priced across Polymarket and Kalshi, refreshed continuously, never paywalled.
Biggest movers · live
Polymarket▼ 44 pts
Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader in 2026?
18%
Polymarket▼ 26 pts
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?
15%
Polymarket▼ 17 pts
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?
6%
Polymarket▲ 15 pts
Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?
61%
Polymarket▲ 14 pts
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?
40%
Polymarket▲ 14 pts
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?
67%
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Politics
See all politics →Polymarket$116k
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
8%YES▬
resolves 6moTrade on Polymarket ↗
Polymarket$77k
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
6%YES▼1
resolves 3moTrade on Polymarket ↗
Sports
See all sports →Polymarket$7.4M
Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Novak Djokovic
89%YES▲9
resolves 5dTrade on Polymarket ↗
All markets
Every active market, ranked by activity across both platforms.
49 markets
| Market | Platform | YES | 24h Vol | Resolves | Watch / alert |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Novak DjokovicWimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Novak Djokovic | polymarket | 89%▲9 | $7.4M | 4d | |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?World Cup Winner | polymarket | 16%▼3 | $3.2M | 9d | |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?World Cup Winner | polymarket | 18%▼2 | $1.8M | 9d | |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?World Cup Winner | polymarket | 39%▲7 | $4.6M | 9d | |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?World Cup Winner | polymarket | 16% | $1.5M | 9d | |
| Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?World Cup Winner | polymarket | 6% | $4.4M | 9d | |
| Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?Spain vs. Belgium | polymarket | 61%▲2 | $4.2M | 2h | |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-07-10?Spain vs. Belgium | polymarket | 16% | $1.9M | 2h | |
| Spain vs. Belgium: Team to AdvanceSpain vs. Belgium - More Markets | polymarket | 75% | $3.0M | 2h | |
| Will Spain vs. Belgium end in a draw?Spain vs. Belgium | polymarket | 24% | $712k | 2h | |
| UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) | polymarket | 68%▲1 | $1.6M | 1d | |
| Spain vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5Spain vs. Belgium - More Markets | polymarket | 56%▲1 | $2.1M | 2h | |
| Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles DodgersColorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | polymarket | 9%▼23 | $2.1M | 5d | |
| Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Belgium?Spain vs. Belgium - Exact Score | polymarket | 11%▼1 | $435k | 2h | |
| Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Belgium?Spain vs. Belgium - Exact Score | polymarket | 12%▲1 | $897k | 2h | |
| Exact Score: Spain 2 - 2 Belgium?Spain vs. Belgium - Exact Score | polymarket | 6% | $230k | 2h | |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?Putin out as President of Russia by...? | polymarket | 8% | $116k | 5mo | |
| Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles DodgersColorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | polymarket | 49%▲14 | $1.9M | 3d | |
| Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Belgium?Spain vs. Belgium - Exact Score | polymarket | 12% | $528k | 2h | |
| Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Belgium?Spain vs. Belgium - Exact Score | polymarket | 7% | $274k | 2h | |
| Exact Score: Spain 1 - 2 Belgium?Spain vs. Belgium - Exact Score | polymarket | 5% | $205k | 2h | |
| Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Belgium?Spain vs. Belgium - Exact Score | polymarket | 7% | $421k | 2h | |
| Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Belgium?Spain vs. Belgium - Exact Score | polymarket | 12%▲1 | $1.0M | 2h | |
| Will Norway vs. England end in a draw?Norway vs. England | polymarket | 27% | $124k | 1d | |
| Will England win on 2026-07-11?Norway vs. England | polymarket | 52% | $454k | 1d | |
| San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles DodgersSan Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | polymarket | 96%▲62 | $1.4M | 2d | |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?Argentina vs. Switzerland | polymarket | 58% | $359k | 1d | |
| Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Belgium?Spain vs. Belgium - Exact Score | polymarket | 8%▲1 | $282k | 2h | |
| New York Mets vs. Atlanta BravesNew York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves | polymarket | 74%▲28 | $1.2M | 3d | |
| Bogota: Valerio Aboian vs Luis Carlos AlvarezBogota: Valerio Aboian vs Luis Carlos Alvarez | polymarket | 11%▼57 | $1.1M | 2d | |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis CardinalsMilwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals | polymarket | 85%▲33 | $1.0M | 3d | |
| Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?Norway vs. England | polymarket | 23% | $612k | 1d | |
| Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Which continent will win the World Cup? | polymarket | 82%▲6 | $97k | — | |
| Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to AdvanceArgentina vs. Switzerland - More Markets | polymarket | 75% | $269k | 1d | |
| Will there be a recession in 2026? — Starts | kalshi | 9% | $10k | 6mo | |
| Spread: Spain (-1.5)Spain vs. Belgium - More Markets | polymarket | 36%▲2 | $708k | 2h | |
| Norway vs. England: Team to AdvanceNorway vs. England - More Markets | polymarket | 36% | $766k | 1d | |
| Spain vs. Belgium: Both Teams to ScoreSpain vs. Belgium - More Markets | polymarket | 55%▲2 | $423k | 2h | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | polymarket | 5% | $215k | 20d | |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...? | polymarket | 6% | $189k | 5mo | |
| Cary: Timo Legout vs Braden ShickCary: Timo Legout vs Braden Shick | polymarket | 6% | $175k | 2d | |
| Contrexeville: Rebeka Masarova vs Francesca CurmiContrexeville: Rebeka Masarova vs Francesca Curmi | polymarket | 6%▼68 | $677k | 4d | |
| Bastad: Kajsa Rinaldo Persson vs Kaitlin QuevedoBastad: Kajsa Rinaldo Persson vs Kaitlin Quevedo | polymarket | 4% | $180k | 4d | |
| Contrexeville: Clara Burel vs Alicia Herrero LinanaContrexeville: Clara Burel vs Alicia Herrero Linana | polymarket | 8%▼80 | $587k | 5d | |
| Spain leading at halftime?Spain vs. Belgium - Halftime Result | polymarket | 45%▲2 | $166k | 2h | |
| Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 | polymarket | 6%▼1 | $77k | 3mo | |
| Cleveland Guardians vs. Minnesota TwinsCleveland Guardians vs. Minnesota Twins | polymarket | 29%▼18 | $563k | 5d | |
| Newport: Jacob Fearnley vs Stefan KozlovNewport: Jacob Fearnley vs Stefan Kozlov | polymarket | 70% | $558k | 6d | |
| Spain vs. Belgium: Draw at halftime?Spain vs. Belgium - Halftime Result | polymarket | 41% | $201k | 2h |
How to read this
A YES price ≈ the market-implied probability the outcome happens. 24h volume and open interest are liquidity proxies — thin markets move fast on small trades. Always read the full resolution criteria on the source platform before trading.