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Edge of the day
PolymarketFed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?
Moved up 19 points in 24 hours — the market is repricing on something. Worth checking what news drove it before the price settles.
What moved, and where the market disagrees
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?
Major repricing — something changed; check the news.
82%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
Major repricing — something changed; check the news.
81%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
Major repricing — something changed; check the news.
20%
Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in September?
Major repricing — something changed; check the news.
95%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September?
Major repricing — something changed; check the news.
30%
Fed rate hike in 2026?
Real money is repricing this.
87%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 30?
Real money is repricing this.
72%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?
Real money is repricing this.
64%
Starts in 52 days · Politics · Midterms
2026 US Midterm Elections
Latest News
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BreakingCrypto51m agoESMA: Prediction Markets 'Rife With Inside Trading'
Prediction4h agoKalshi Blocked: No Prediction Markets at NFL Melbourne
Poker8h agoCoinPoker Sets Record With 3,628-Entry CoinMillion Field
Poker10h agoSwede Wins First WSOP Bracelet in $5K PLO Championship
Crypto12h agoESMA Flags Crypto Contagion Risk to Traditional Finance
Prediction12h agoKalshi, Catalist Relaunch Streaming Deal With Regulatory Fix
Featured Analysis
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2026 US Open Day 18: Shelton Stuns Alcaraz, Semis Set
Ben Shelton ousted defending champion Carlos Alcaraz at 3:33 AM in US Open history's latest finish. Thursday brings both women's semis at Arthur Ashe.
6 min read
Kalshi's Federal Shield Is Cracking: What This Week's Rulings Mean
Kalshi lost injunction bids in Utah, Iowa, and Michigan this week. The circuit split is real, but 35 of 41 procedural rulings have gone to the states.
11 min read
US Open 2026 Day 11: Shelton Stuns Alcaraz
Ben Shelton eliminated defending champion Carlos Alcaraz at 3:30 a.m. ET. Three women's quarterfinals — Gauff, Rybakina, Pegula — complete the last-eight picture on Day 11.
6 min read
Hot Takes
Crypto Casino VIP Programs: Gilded Trap or Real Edge?
Most crypto-casino VIP and rakeback programs return a fraction of a fraction of player losses. Only wager-free rakeback on low-edge games delivers real value.
5 min read
Sports Contracts Won. Now They Must Live With It.
Sports event contracts already dominate prediction-market volume at 80%+. The 2026 World Cup is cementing it — and forcing a reckoning with what the category actually is.
7 min read
Provably Fair: Genuine Tool or Trust Theater?
Provably fair cryptography does eliminate one specific cheat, but leaves players exposed to withdrawal fraud, insolvency, and exit scams. Know exactly what it covers.
5 min read
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