Bernstein: Robinhood Prediction Markets to Hit $1.7B by 2028
Analysts raise HOOD revenue estimates as prediction markets projected to overtake crypto income.
Bernstein analysts project Robinhood's prediction markets division will add $1.7 billion to annual revenue by 2028, surpassing the company's crypto segment — while holding their HOOD price target steady at $160, according to reporting by CoinTelegraph (October 2026).
Why It Matters
Prediction markets have long sat at the fringes of retail finance, but Bernstein's revised estimates signal that Wall Street now views them as a primary growth engine for Robinhood — not a side experiment. If the $1.7 billion forecast proves accurate, it would represent a structural shift in how retail platforms monetise user engagement, moving beyond transaction-fee-dependent crypto trading. For iGaming and prediction market operators, the implicit message is stark: a well-capitalised, regulated platform like Robinhood entering at scale compresses the addressable market for smaller players. Gambling always involves risk, and the same applies to the equities tied to this sector — HOOD's actual performance will depend heavily on regulatory tolerance for prediction markets in key U.S. jurisdictions as of October 2026.
Context
Robinhood has been expanding its prediction market offerings as U.S. regulatory sentiment toward event contracts has shifted this year. Bernstein raised revenue estimates across both the 2026 and 2028 forecast horizons, suggesting analysts see near-term momentum, not just long-range speculation. The crypto revenue benchmark that prediction markets are projected to overtake is itself substantial, given Robinhood's crypto trading volumes have ranked among the highest for U.S. retail brokerages.
What's Next
The clearest milestone is whether Robinhood's prediction market volumes through the remainder of 2026 track toward Bernstein's revised estimates — watch Q4 2026 earnings for the first concrete data points. Regulatory developments in Washington around event-contract platforms will likely determine whether the $1.7 billion figure is a floor or a ceiling.
Source: CoinTelegraph, October 2026
Gambling and investment in gambling-adjacent equities involves risk. Past analyst estimates are not guarantees of future performance.
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