The WeeBet Edge Index
How much the market disagrees with itself
The Edge Index is a single number summarizing how far Polymarket and Kalshi diverge on equivalent markets — the closest thing to a canonical gauge of prediction-market mispricing. Higher = more disagreement = more potential edge.
Cross-platform pairs: none matched this week — single-platform turbulence below
Movement breadth
10%
23 of 233 tradeable markets moved ≥5 pts in 24h
Avg 24h move
5.7 pts
across markets with a known move
Biggest mover
32 pts
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When marquee events list on more than one platform, matched pairs and the full Edge Index reading return automatically. See the live Odds Desk →
How the Edge Index is calculated
For every pair of equivalent markets trading on more than one of Polymarket and Kalshi, we take the absolute price gap (in probability points). The Edge Index is the average gap across all matched pairs, scaled by the natural log of the pair count — so a market with many small disagreements and one with a few large ones are weighed sensibly. It is a read on mispricing, not a guarantee: a gap can mean one venue is thin or hasn't caught up to news. See our odds methodology.
Download the data
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How to cite WeeBet data
WeeBet. “The WeeBet Edge Index — Prediction-Market Disagreement.” weebet.com. Accessed October 2026 (weekly).
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