The WeeBet Edge Index
How much the market disagrees with itself
The Edge Index is a single number summarizing how far Polymarket and Kalshi diverge on equivalent markets — the closest thing to a canonical gauge of prediction-market mispricing. Higher = more disagreement = more potential edge.
Polymarket and Kalshi are in tight agreement
The Edge Index reads near zero when equivalent markets price the same outcome similarly. Disagreement opens up around fresh news and during US trading hours — check back, or get it weekly in the newsletter.
See the live Odds Desk →How the Edge Index is calculated
For every pair of equivalent markets trading on both Polymarket and Kalshi, we take the absolute price gap (in probability points). The Edge Index is the average gap across all matched pairs, scaled by the natural log of the pair count — so a market with many small disagreements and one with a few large ones are weighed sensibly. It is a read on mispricing, not a guarantee: a gap can mean one venue is thin or hasn't caught up to news. See our odds methodology.
Prediction desk
Where Polymarket and Kalshi disagree — weekly.
The biggest cross-venue price gaps, the markets repricing on news, and the WeeBet Edge read. Straight to your inbox each Friday.
Free. Unsubscribe in one click. We'll never sell your email.