Methodology
How we read the odds
Every number on WeeBet is plain arithmetic on prices that are already public — no black-box model, no paid feed, nothing you can't check yourself. We publish a read, never a guarantee. This page documents exactly how each figure is computed and — just as important — what it does not mean.
Process, not picks
We don't tell you what will happen or sell you “locks.” We show you what the market is pricing, where prices disagree, and how much money stands behind them — and we let you decide. A site that promises winners is a tipster; a site that shows its work is a tool. We're building the tool.
The numbers, defined
Implied probability
prediction price = probability · (decimal odds → 1 ÷ odds)On a prediction market a YES price of 0.38 simply is a 38% implied chance the event resolves YES. For sportsbook odds we convert: decimal odds of 2.50 imply 1 ÷ 2.50 = 40%. Limit: It is the market's estimate, not a fact. A 38% market still happens 38% of the time — often.
Bookmaker margin (the vig / overround)
(1 ÷ oddsA + 1 ÷ oddsB) − 1Add up the implied probabilities of both sides of a two-way market; the amount over 100% is the bookmaker's built-in margin. Example (Pinnacle's own): Nadal 1.926 / Federer 2.020 → 51.92% + 49.51% = 101.43% → a 1.43% margin.Limit: A lower margin means a fairer price. It's a cost, not an edge.
No-vig fair odds
each implied probability ÷ (1 + margin)Strip the margin back out and you get the market's honest estimate — the “fair” probability before the house's cut. This is the number worth comparing your own view against.Limit: Fair odds are only as good as the market they come from — thin or lopsided markets give noisy fair values.
Cross-venue gap & consensus
| priceA − priceB |, consensus = midpointWhen the same outcome trades at different prices on two venues (e.g. Polymarket vs Kalshi), the gap is a mispricing signal — the closest thing to “what the smart money is pricing.” We show both prices, the consensus midpoint as a fair anchor, and which venue offers the cheaper YES. Limit: A gap can simply mean one venue is thinly traded or hasn't caught up to news yet — not free money. Fees, liquidity, and resolution-wording differences can erase an apparent edge.
24-hour move
change in price over the last 24hHow far the price has travelled in a day. A big move means the market is repricing on new information — a prompt to find out what changed.Limit: Momentum is not prediction. Markets overreact and revert.
Liquidity tier
deep ≥ $50k · moderate ≥ $5k · thin belowHow much money stands behind a price tells you how much to trust it. A price in a deep market is a strong consensus; a thin-market price is a guess.Limit: Thin-market prices move on tiny volume — treat them as noisy.
On “edge” and closing-line value
The industry's honest test of skill is closing-line value (CLV): did you consistently get a better price than the market's final one, by more than the margin? Beating the close is the best available signal that a process is genuinely +EV.
But we're honest about its limits: CLV is necessary, not sufficient. It measures agreement with a sharp closing market, not guaranteed profit, and it breaks down in illiquid, prop, and prediction markets where no efficient closing line exists. We flag where our reads rest on thin or unusual markets.
How we make money — and why it doesn't change the read
When you sign up to a platform through one of our links, we may earn a commission. That's how WeeBet is funded. Two commitments keep it honest:
- The analysis is arithmetic on public odds — it can't be bought. The implied probability of a market is the same whether or not its platform pays us.
- We show the best price for you, even when it's on a venue we don't earn from. A read that steered you to a worse price to earn a commission would be worthless — and we'd lose you.
See our affiliate disclosure and editorial standards. WeeBet is not a gambling operator and does not accept wagers.