Prediction Markets
Politics odds
As of October 2026, these are the most active politics prediction markets — elections, nominations, and policy outcomes — priced live across Polymarket and Kalshi. Each YES price is the market-implied probability the event resolves true.
Polymarket$59k
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
36%YES▬
resolves 20dTrade on Polymarket ↗
Polymarket$49k
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
63%YES▬
resolves 20dTrade on Polymarket ↗
Polymarket$137k
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
9%YES▬
resolves 20dTrade on Polymarket ↗
Polymarket$118k
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
0%YES▬
resolves 25moTrade on Polymarket ↗
Polymarket$65k
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
0%YES▬
resolves 25moTrade on Polymarket ↗
Polymarket$63k
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
0%YES▬
resolves 25moTrade on Polymarket ↗
Polymarket$119k
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%YES▬
resolves 25moTrade on Polymarket ↗
Polymarket$88k
Will Alex Padilla win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
0%YES▬
resolves 25moTrade on Polymarket ↗
Polymarket$80k
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
0%YES▬
resolves 25moTrade on Polymarket ↗
Polymarket$122k
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
1%YES▬
resolves 25moTrade on Polymarket ↗
Polymarket$75k
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
0%YES▬
resolves 25moTrade on Polymarket ↗
Polymarket$878k
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
0%YES▼1
resolves 6moTrade on Polymarket ↗
Polymarket$146k
Will John McEntee win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
0%YES▬
resolves 25moTrade on Polymarket ↗
Polymarket$63k
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
44%YES▲1
resolves 6moTrade on Polymarket ↗
Polymarket$220k
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
0%YES▬
resolves 25moTrade on Polymarket ↗
Polymarket$86k
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
1%YES▬
resolves 25moTrade on Polymarket ↗
Polymarket$115k
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
0%YES▬
resolves 25moTrade on Polymarket ↗
Polymarket$67k
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
4%YES▲1
resolves 3moTrade on Polymarket ↗
Polymarket$63k
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
1%YES▬
resolves 25moTrade on Polymarket ↗
Polymarket$64k
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
0%YES▬
resolves 25moTrade on Polymarket ↗
Polymarket$47k
Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Democrats win the Senate?
10%YES▬
resolves 20dTrade on Polymarket ↗
Polymarket$54k
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?
12%YES▲1
resolves 6moTrade on Polymarket ↗
Polymarket$81k
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
6%YES▬
resolves 25moTrade on Polymarket ↗
Polymarket$63k
Will oil be below $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?
13%YES▼1
resolves 20dTrade on Polymarket ↗
Polymarket$54k
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
20%YES▲3
resolves 25moTrade on Polymarket ↗
Polymarket$373k
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
27%YES▼3
resolves 13dTrade on Polymarket ↗
Polymarket$72k
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
38%YES▲1
resolves 20dTrade on Polymarket ↗
Polymarket$63k
Will oil be below $85 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?
8%YES▬
resolves 20dTrade on Polymarket ↗
Polymarket$62k
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
0%YES▬
resolves 25moTrade on Polymarket ↗
Polymarket$385k
Will Chris Van Hollen win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
0%YES▲2
resolves 25moTrade on Polymarket ↗
Polymarket$110k
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
1%YES▬
resolves 25moTrade on Polymarket ↗
Polymarket$51k
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
63%YES▼1
resolves 20dTrade on Polymarket ↗
Polymarket$330k
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
2%YES▲1
resolves 25moTrade on Polymarket ↗
Polymarket$136k
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%YES▬
resolves 25moTrade on Polymarket ↗
Polymarket$63k
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
15%YES▼1
resolves 25moTrade on Polymarket ↗
Polymarket$329k
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
2%YES▲1
resolves 25moTrade on Polymarket ↗