Prediction Markets
World odds
As of July 2026, these are the most active world prediction markets — geopolitics, conflict, and global events — priced live across Polymarket and Kalshi. Each YES price is the market-implied probability the event resolves true.
Polymarket$1.4M
Will Mohammad Khatami be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
0%YES▬
resolves 6moTrade on Polymarket ↗
Polymarket$318k
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
1%YES▬
resolves 14dTrade on Polymarket ↗
Polymarket$795k
Will Mostafa Pourmohammadi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
0%YES▬
resolves 6moTrade on Polymarket ↗
Polymarket$128k
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?
5%YES▼2
resolves 33dTrade on Polymarket ↗
Polymarket$350k
Will Ali Motahari be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
0%YES▬
resolves 6moTrade on Polymarket ↗