Prediction Markets
World odds
As of October 2026, these are the most active world prediction markets — geopolitics, conflict, and global events — priced live across Polymarket and Kalshi. Each YES price is the market-implied probability the event resolves true.
Polymarket$79k
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
14%YES▬
resolves 3moTrade on Polymarket ↗
Polymarket$321k
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?
80%YES▼1
resolves 17dTrade on Polymarket ↗
Polymarket$55k
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?
8%YES▼2
resolves 2moTrade on Polymarket ↗
Polymarket$86k
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?
76%YES▼1
resolves 20dTrade on Polymarket ↗
Polymarket$231k
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?
99%YES▲1
resolves 1dTrade on Polymarket ↗
Polymarket$70k
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
1%YES▬
resolves 17dTrade on Polymarket ↗