Prediction Markets
World odds
As of August 2026, these are the most active world prediction markets — geopolitics, conflict, and global events — priced live across Polymarket and Kalshi. Each YES price is the market-implied probability the event resolves true.
Polymarket$839k
US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15?
0%YES▼88
resolves 16dTrade on Polymarket ↗
Polymarket$355k
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
3%YES▬
resolves 30dTrade on Polymarket ↗
Polymarket$512k
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?
0%YES▼99
resolves 1dTrade on Polymarket ↗
Polymarket$55k
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
1%YES▬
resolves 15dTrade on Polymarket ↗
Polymarket$97k
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
0%YES▬
resolves 1dTrade on Polymarket ↗
Polymarket$82k
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
28%YES▼2
resolves 4moTrade on Polymarket ↗