Prediction Markets
World odds
As of October 2026, these are the most active world prediction markets — geopolitics, conflict, and global events — priced live across Polymarket and Kalshi. Each YES price is the market-implied probability the event resolves true.
Polymarket$72k
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
18%YES▬
resolves 3moTrade on Polymarket ↗
Polymarket$55k
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?
8%YES▼2
resolves 2moTrade on Polymarket ↗
Polymarket$299k
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?
95%YES▲1
resolves 2dTrade on Polymarket ↗
Polymarket$141k
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
1%YES▬
resolves 21dTrade on Polymarket ↗
Polymarket$249k
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?
79%YES▲4
resolves 21dTrade on Polymarket ↗