Prediction Markets
World odds
As of June 2026, these are the most active world prediction markets — geopolitics, conflict, and global events — priced live across Polymarket and Kalshi. Each YES price is the market-implied probability the event resolves true.
Polymarket$2.6M
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
7%YES▼3
resolves 5dTrade on Polymarket ↗
Polymarket$1.1M
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
16%YES▲2
resolves 13dTrade on Polymarket ↗
Polymarket$698k
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
20%YES▼10
resolves 28dTrade on Polymarket ↗
Polymarket$532k
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?
4%YES▼2
resolves 13dTrade on Polymarket ↗