Prediction Markets
Economy odds
As of October 2026, these are the most active economy prediction markets — Fed decisions, inflation, jobs, and recession odds — priced live across Polymarket and Kalshi. Each YES price is the market-implied probability the event resolves true.
Polymarket$2.7M
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
75%YES▼4
resolves 14dTrade on Polymarket ↗
Polymarket$153k
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?
0%YES▬
resolves 14dTrade on Polymarket ↗
Polymarket$1.6M
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
25%YES▲5
resolves 14dTrade on Polymarket ↗
Polymarket$901k
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?
0%YES▬
resolves 14dTrade on Polymarket ↗
Polymarket$219k
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
0%YES▬
resolves 14dTrade on Polymarket ↗
Polymarket$59k
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?
20%YES▼2
resolves 2moTrade on Polymarket ↗
Polymarket$59k
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?
79%YES▲3
resolves 2moTrade on Polymarket ↗