Prediction Markets
Economy odds
As of August 2026, these are the most active economy prediction markets — Fed decisions, inflation, jobs, and recession odds — priced live across Polymarket and Kalshi. Each YES price is the market-implied probability the event resolves true.
Polymarket$164k
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?
0%YES▬
resolves 16dTrade on Polymarket ↗
Polymarket$211k
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?
1%YES▬
resolves 16dTrade on Polymarket ↗
Polymarket$567k
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
1%YES▬
resolves 16dTrade on Polymarket ↗
Polymarket$584k
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
48%YES▼3
resolves 16dTrade on Polymarket ↗
Polymarket$465k
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
53%YES▲6
resolves 16dTrade on Polymarket ↗