Prediction Markets
Economy odds
As of July 2026, these are the most active economy prediction markets — Fed decisions, inflation, jobs, and recession odds — priced live across Polymarket and Kalshi. Each YES price is the market-implied probability the event resolves true.
Polymarket$248k
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?
0%YES▬
resolves 12dTrade on Polymarket ↗
Polymarket$564k
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
0%YES▬
resolves 12dTrade on Polymarket ↗
Polymarket$487k
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?
0%YES▬
resolves 12dTrade on Polymarket ↗
Polymarket$473k
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
96%YES▬
resolves 12dTrade on Polymarket ↗
Polymarket$399k
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
4%YES▬
resolves 12dTrade on Polymarket ↗