Prediction Markets
Economy odds
As of October 2026, these are the most active economy prediction markets — Fed decisions, inflation, jobs, and recession odds — priced live across Polymarket and Kalshi. Each YES price is the market-implied probability the event resolves true.
Polymarket$366k
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?
0%YES▬
resolves 21dTrade on Polymarket ↗
Polymarket$107k
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
84%YES▬
resolves 21dTrade on Polymarket ↗
Polymarket$144k
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?
0%YES▬
resolves 21dTrade on Polymarket ↗
Polymarket$436k
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
1%YES▬
resolves 21dTrade on Polymarket ↗
Polymarket$212k
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
16%YES▲1
resolves 21dTrade on Polymarket ↗
Polymarket$67k
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?
0%YES▬
resolves 2moTrade on Polymarket ↗
Polymarket$82k
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?
24%YES▼7
resolves 2moTrade on Polymarket ↗