Prediction Markets
Economy odds
As of August 2026, these are the most active economy prediction markets — Fed decisions, inflation, jobs, and recession odds — priced live across Polymarket and Kalshi. Each YES price is the market-implied probability the event resolves true.
Polymarket$175k
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?
0%YES▬
resolves 16dTrade on Polymarket ↗
Polymarket$202k
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?
1%YES▬
resolves 16dTrade on Polymarket ↗
Polymarket$612k
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
47%YES▼3
resolves 16dTrade on Polymarket ↗
Polymarket$492k
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
1%YES▬
resolves 16dTrade on Polymarket ↗
Polymarket$457k
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
52%YES▲5
resolves 16dTrade on Polymarket ↗