Will there be a recession in 2026? — Starts
As of July 2026, Kalshi traders give “Will there be a recession in 2026? — Starts” a 10% chance of resolving YES. $3.1k has traded in the last 24 hours, and it resolves on January 31, 2027. A YES price of 10% is the market-implied probability the event happens — not a guarantee. Verify the full resolution criteria on Kalshi before trading.
YES
10¢
NO
89¢
24h volume
$3.1k
Open interest
$805.6k
Will there be a recession in 2026? — Starts
KalshiYES probability for "Will there be a recession in 2026? — Starts" moved from 12% to 10% across 104 points. Current 10%. Data points: Jun 17: 12%, Jun 17: 12%, Jun 17: 12%, Jun 17: 11%, Jun 18: 10%, Jun 18: 10%, Jun 18: 10%, Jun 18: 9%, Jun 19: 9%, Jun 19: 9%, Jun 19: 10%, Jun 19: 10%, Jun 20: 10%, Jun 20: 10%, Jun 20: 10%, Jun 21: 10%, Jun 21: 10%, Jun 21: 10%, Jun 21: 10%, Jun 22: 10%, Jun 22: 9%, Jun 22: 9%, Jun 22: 9%, Jun 22: 9%, Jun 22: 9%, Jun 22: 9%, Jun 22: 9%, Jun 22: 9%, Jun 22: 10%, Jun 22: 9%, Jun 22: 9%, Jun 22: 9%, Jun 22: 10%, Jun 23: 10%, Jun 23: 10%, Jun 23: 10%, Jun 23: 10%, Jun 23: 10%, Jun 23: 11%, Jun 24: 12%, Jun 24: 9%, Jun 24: 9%, Jun 24: 9%, Jun 24: 9%, Jun 25: 9%, Jun 25: 10%, Jun 25: 9%, Jun 25: 9%, Jun 25: 9%, Jun 25: 9%, Jun 25: 10%, Jun 25: 9%, Jun 25: 9%, Jun 26: 9%, Jun 26: 10%, Jun 26: 10%, Jun 26: 10%, Jun 26: 10%, Jun 26: 10%, Jun 27: 9%, Jun 27: 9%, Jun 27: 9%, Jun 28: 10%, Jun 28: 10%, Jun 28: 10%, Jun 28: 10%, Jun 28: 10%, Jun 29: 10%, Jun 29: 9%, Jun 30: 10%, Jun 30: 10%, Jun 30: 10%, Jul 2: 10%, Jul 3: 8%, Jul 3: 8%, Jul 5: 7%, Jul 5: 7%, Jul 6: 8%, Jul 6: 9%, Jul 6: 9%, Jul 7: 8%, Jul 7: 8%, Jul 7: 8%, Jul 7: 8%, Jul 8: 10%, Jul 8: 10%, Jul 9: 9%, Jul 9: 10%, Jul 10: 9%, Jul 11: 10%, Jul 11: 10%, Jul 13: 11%, Jul 13: 9%, Jul 13: 10%, Jul 13: 10%, Jul 13: 11%, Jul 14: 11%, Jul 14: 10%, Jul 14: 9%, Jul 15: 10%, Jul 15: 10%, Jul 16: 9%, Jul 16: 10%, Now: 10%
The WeeBet Angle
there be a recession in 2026? — Starts on Kalshi
10% — Thin market — noisy price.
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FAQ
- What are the odds of Will there be a recession in 2026? — Starts?
- As of July 2026, the prediction market on Kalshi implies a 10% probability of YES.
- Where can I trade Will there be a recession in 2026? — Starts?
- This contract trades on Kalshi. WeeBet links you to the source platform — we don't accept wagers.
- When does this market resolve?
- It is scheduled to resolve on January 31, 2027, at which point YES or NO pays out based on the platform's resolution source.