What are the odds of Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

As of August 2026, the prediction market on Polymarket implies a 16% probability of YES (up 2 points in the last 24h).

Where can I trade Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

This contract trades on Polymarket. WeeBet links you to the source platform — we don't accept wagers.

When does this market resolve

It is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027, at which point YES or NO pays out based on the platform's resolution source.

PolymarketWorld

☆ Watch

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

As of August 2026, Polymarket traders give “Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?” a 16% chance of resolving YES, up 2 points over the past 24 hours. $640.5k has traded in the last 24 hours, and it resolves on January 1, 2027. A YES price of 16% is the market-implied probability the event happens — not a guarantee. Verify the full resolution criteria on Polymarket before trading.

YES

16¢

up 2 points 24h

84¢

24h volume

$640.5k

Open interest

—

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Polymarket

as of Aug 31, 2026

16%

+2 pts(24h)

−1 pts(7d)

Slight downtick

YES probability for "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?" moved from 23% to 16% across 1168 points. Current 16%. Data points: Aug 1: 23%, Aug 1: 23%, Aug 1: 24%, Aug 1: 25%, Aug 1: 25%, Aug 1: 25%, Aug 1: 24%, Aug 1: 24%, Aug 1: 24%, Aug 1: 24%, Aug 1: 25%, Aug 1: 24%, Aug 1: 25%, Aug 1: 25%, Aug 1: 24%, Aug 1: 25%, Aug 1: 25%, Aug 1: 25%, Aug 1: 25%, Aug 1: 24%, Aug 1: 24%, Aug 1: 24%, Aug 1: 25%, Aug 1: 25%, Aug 1: 25%, Aug 1: 25%, Aug 1: 24%, Aug 1: 25%, Aug 1: 26%, Aug 1: 26%, Aug 1: 26%, Aug 1: 26%, Aug 1: 27%, Aug 1: 27%, Aug 1: 26%, Aug 1: 26%, Aug 1: 26%, Aug 1: 26%, Aug 1: 25%, Aug 1: 26%, Aug 1: 26%, Aug 1: 26%, Aug 2: 25%, Aug 2: 25%, Aug 2: 25%, Aug 2: 23%, Aug 2: 23%, Aug 2: 21%, Aug 2: 21%, Aug 2: 20%, Aug 2: 17%, Aug 2: 17%, Aug 2: 17%, Aug 2: 18%, Aug 2: 19%, Aug 2: 18%, Aug 2: 20%, Aug 2: 20%, Aug 2: 18%, Aug 2: 20%, Aug 2: 20%, Aug 2: 20%, Aug 2: 20%, Aug 2: 20%, Aug 2: 19%, Aug 2: 20%, Aug 2: 19%, Aug 2: 19%, Aug 2: 19%, Aug 2: 20%, Aug 2: 20%, Aug 2: 20%, Aug 2: 20%, Aug 2: 19%, Aug 2: 19%, Aug 2: 20%, Aug 2: 20%, Aug 2: 20%, Aug 2: 20%, Aug 2: 21%, Aug 2: 21%, Aug 2: 21%, Aug 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The WeeBet Angle

the U.S. invade Iran before 2027 on Polymarket

16% — Drifting on a well-backed number.

16%

Implied

$640.5k

Liquidity

−1pts

7-day momentum

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US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15?

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resolves 16dTrade on Polymarket ↗

FAQ

What are the odds of Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027??: As of August 2026, the prediction market on Polymarket implies a 16% probability of YES (up 2 points in the last 24h).
Where can I trade Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027??: This contract trades on Polymarket. WeeBet links you to the source platform — we don't accept wagers.
When does this market resolve?: It is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027, at which point YES or NO pays out based on the platform's resolution source.

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