What are the odds of Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

As of July 2026, the prediction market on Polymarket implies a 23% probability of YES (up 1 point in the last 24h).

Where can I trade Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

This contract trades on Polymarket. WeeBet links you to the source platform — we don't accept wagers.

When does this market resolve

It is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026, at which point YES or NO pays out based on the platform's resolution source.

PolymarketWorld

☆ Watch

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

As of July 2026, Polymarket traders give “Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?” a 23% chance of resolving YES, up 1 point over the past 24 hours. $672.3k has traded in the last 24 hours, and it resolves on December 31, 2026. A YES price of 23% is the market-implied probability the event happens — not a guarantee. Verify the full resolution criteria on Polymarket before trading.

YES

23¢

up 1 point 24h

77¢

24h volume

$672.3k

Open interest

—

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Polymarket

as of Jul 17, 2026

23%

+1 pts(24h)

+7 pts(7d)

Rising momentum

YES probability for "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?" moved from 13% to 23% across 434 points. Current 23%. Data points: Jun 18: 13%, Jun 18: 13%, Jun 18: 12%, Jun 18: 12%, Jun 18: 12%, Jun 20: 13%, Jun 21: 15%, Jun 21: 14%, Jun 21: 15%, Jun 21: 13%, Jun 21: 13%, Jun 21: 13%, Jun 21: 13%, Jun 21: 13%, Jun 21: 13%, Jun 21: 14%, Jun 21: 14%, Jun 21: 14%, Jun 21: 14%, Jun 21: 14%, Jun 22: 14%, Jun 22: 15%, Jun 22: 15%, Jun 22: 15%, Jun 22: 14%, Jun 22: 15%, Jun 22: 13%, Jun 22: 15%, Jun 22: 13%, Jun 22: 13%, Jun 22: 13%, Jun 22: 13%, Jun 22: 13%, Jun 22: 14%, Jun 22: 14%, Jun 22: 14%, Jun 22: 14%, Jun 22: 14%, Jun 22: 14%, Jun 22: 13%, Jun 22: 14%, Jun 22: 13%, Jun 22: 14%, Jun 22: 14%, Jun 22: 14%, Jun 22: 13%, Jun 22: 13%, Jun 22: 13%, Jun 22: 13%, Jun 22: 13%, Jun 22: 13%, Jun 22: 13%, Jun 22: 13%, Jun 22: 13%, Jul 7: 13%, Jul 7: 13%, Jul 7: 13%, Jul 7: 14%, Jul 7: 13%, Jul 7: 13%, Jul 7: 13%, Jul 7: 14%, Jul 8: 14%, Jul 8: 14%, Jul 8: 14%, Jul 8: 14%, Jul 8: 15%, Jul 8: 14%, Jul 8: 15%, Jul 8: 15%, Jul 8: 15%, Jul 8: 14%, Jul 8: 15%, Jul 8: 14%, Jul 8: 14%, Jul 8: 14%, Jul 8: 14%, Jul 8: 14%, Jul 8: 15%, Jul 8: 15%, Jul 8: 15%, Jul 8: 14%, Jul 8: 15%, Jul 8: 15%, Jul 8: 15%, Jul 8: 15%, Jul 8: 16%, Jul 8: 15%, Jul 8: 15%, Jul 8: 15%, Jul 8: 16%, Jul 8: 15%, Jul 8: 16%, Jul 8: 15%, Jul 8: 15%, Jul 8: 15%, Jul 8: 14%, Jul 8: 15%, Jul 8: 15%, Jul 8: 14%, Jul 8: 15%, Jul 8: 15%, Jul 8: 15%, Jul 8: 14%, Jul 8: 15%, Jul 8: 14%, Jul 8: 16%, Jul 8: 17%, Jul 8: 16%, Jul 8: 16%, Jul 9: 14%, Jul 9: 16%, Jul 9: 17%, Jul 9: 16%, Jul 9: 17%, Jul 9: 16%, Jul 9: 17%, Jul 9: 16%, Jul 9: 16%, Jul 9: 17%, Jul 9: 17%, Jul 9: 17%, Jul 9: 17%, Jul 9: 17%, Jul 9: 16%, Jul 9: 17%, Jul 9: 17%, Jul 9: 16%, Jul 9: 17%, Jul 9: 16%, Jul 9: 16%, Jul 9: 16%, Jul 9: 17%, Jul 9: 17%, Jul 9: 17%, Jul 9: 17%, Jul 9: 16%, Jul 9: 17%, Jul 9: 17%, Jul 9: 17%, Jul 9: 16%, Jul 9: 16%, Jul 9: 15%, Jul 9: 16%, Jul 9: 16%, Jul 9: 15%, Jul 9: 16%, Jul 9: 16%, Jul 9: 15%, Jul 9: 16%, Jul 9: 15%, Jul 9: 15%, Jul 9: 16%, Jul 9: 16%, Jul 9: 16%, Jul 9: 15%, Jul 9: 16%, Jul 9: 16%, Jul 10: 16%, Jul 10: 16%, Jul 10: 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23%, Jul 16: 23%, Jul 16: 23%, Jul 16: 24%, Jul 16: 23%, Jul 16: 24%, Jul 16: 24%, Jul 16: 24%, Jul 16: 24%, Jul 16: 23%, Jul 16: 24%, Jul 16: 23%, Jul 16: 25%, Jul 16: 24%, Jul 16: 24%, Jul 16: 23%, Jul 16: 23%, Jul 16: 24%, Jul 16: 23%, Jul 16: 23%, Jul 16: 23%, Jul 16: 24%, Jul 16: 23%, Jul 16: 24%, Jul 16: 24%, Jul 16: 23%, Jul 16: 24%, Jul 16: 22%, Jul 16: 23%, Jul 16: 23%, Jul 16: 22%, Jul 16: 22%, Jul 16: 23%, Jul 16: 22%, Jul 16: 24%, Jul 16: 22%, Jul 16: 23%, Jul 16: 24%, Jul 16: 23%, Jul 17: 22%, Jul 17: 23%, Jul 17: 23%, Now: 23%

The WeeBet Angle

the U.S. invade Iran before 2027 on Polymarket

23% — Drifting on a well-backed number.

23%

Implied

$672.3k

Liquidity

+7pts

7-day momentum

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FAQ

What are the odds of Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027??: As of July 2026, the prediction market on Polymarket implies a 23% probability of YES (up 1 point in the last 24h).
Where can I trade Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027??: This contract trades on Polymarket. WeeBet links you to the source platform — we don't accept wagers.
When does this market resolve?: It is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026, at which point YES or NO pays out based on the platform's resolution source.

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