Analysis
Long-form, weekly
Deep dives on prediction market dynamics, crypto-gambling moves, poker ecosystem shifts, and the regulatory landscape — written by our editorial team and AI desk.
What the Prediction-Market Tape Is Saying This Week
Eight Polymarket contracts collapsed in unison this week, shedding a combined 325 percentage points. The volume signatures reveal where prediction-market liquidity is really concentrating.
10 min read
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PredictionAug 24What the Prediction-Market Tape Is Saying This Week
Eight resolved Cincinnati Open contracts processed $15.85M in 24 hours. The repricing cascade — led by Cobolli, Nakashima, and Borges upsets — is the week's real signal.
10 min read
PredictionAug 20The CFTC Is Drawing Lines — And Kalshi Is Racing Past Them
From New York's $36B lawsuit to South Korea's Polymarket block, this week's regulation news has one through-line: who actually rules prediction markets.
10 min read
PredictionAug 17What the Prediction-Market Tape Is Saying This Week
This week's Polymarket tape across eight tennis and MLB markets tells one story: narrative pricing corrected violently by on-court reality, with $13.7M in 24h volume.
10 min read
PredictionAug 10What the Prediction-Market Tape Is Saying This Week
The National Bank Open generated $9.66M in resolved tennis contracts while Boston's 8-game streak leaves the White Sox priced at a suspicious 41%.
10 min read
PredictionAug 6Kalshi's Preemption Theory Is Cracking
Utah summary judgment and New York's $36B suit moved in parallel this week, accelerating a circuit split that could reach the Supreme Court by 2027.
11 min read
PredictionAug 52026 US Midterm Elections: Preview, Odds & Key Races
The 2026 US Midterms arrive November 3, 2026. Democrats hold an 85% House edge but face a steeper Senate climb. Here's every key race, date, and market to watch.
7 min read
PredictionAug 3What the Prediction-Market Tape Is Saying This Week
Eight live positions, $14.67M in 24-hour volume, and one geopolitical market that barely flinched despite Trump cancelling planned Iran strikes.
10 min read
PredictionJul 30Prediction Markets' Compliance Reckoning Arrives at Once
Four stories, one signal: prediction markets are scaling faster than their compliance architecture. Here's what this week's regulatory wave actually changes.
11 min read
PredictionJul 27What the Prediction-Market Tape Is Saying This Week
Six of eight tracked markets resolved this week, generating $10M+ in volume. The Whitmer 1% is the only forward-looking price worth studying.
11 min read
PredictionJul 20What the Prediction-Market Tape Is Saying This Week
Eight Polymarket contracts, $11.1M in daily volume, and six prices at 0–1%. The tape has settled — but the residual tails, repricing speeds, and one live 16% are still telling a story.
10 min read
PredictionJul 19World Cup 2026 Final Day: Spain vs. Argentina Briefing
Spain and Argentina meet in the 2026 World Cup Final at MetLife Stadium on July 19. Spain enter favourites with a record 6 clean sheets; Argentina lean on Messi and late-game resilience.
7 min read
PredictionJul 18World Cup 2026 Briefing: Bronze Final & Final Odds
July 18 briefing: England and France meet for bronze in Miami at 5 p.m. ET. Spain enter Sunday's final as -164 favorites; Argentina's Messi chases Golden Boot and history.
6 min read
PredictionJul 17World Cup 2026 Briefing: Spain vs. Argentina Final Set
July 17, 2026: No fixtures today, but the World Cup Final is set. Spain face Argentina on Sunday — live title odds, key stats and Golden Boot tracker inside.
7 min read
PredictionJul 16World Cup 2026 Briefing: Spain vs. Argentina Final Set
Spain and Argentina are confirmed as the 2026 FIFA World Cup finalists. Full semifinal results, live title odds, and a tactical preview of Sunday's decider at MetLife Stadium.
7 min read
PredictionJul 16The CFTC vs. the States: Prediction Markets' Defining Week
The CFTC ordered Kalshi to defy a Michigan court for the first time ever. The Czech Republic blocked Polymarket. Gibraltar launched the world's first purpose-built prediction market regime. This week rewrote the rules.
10 min read
PredictionJul 15World Cup 2026 Daily Briefing: England vs. Argentina
Spain eliminated France 2-0 on July 14 and are -156 favourites to win the final. England face Argentina in Atlanta at 3 p.m. ET today — track live odds at WeeBet.
6 min read
PredictionJul 14World Cup 2026 Daily Briefing: France vs. Spain Semifinal
France host Spain in a blockbuster Dallas semifinal on July 14, with Mbappé (8 goals) and Yamal set to meet for the first time at a World Cup. Title odds, team news, and what to watch.
7 min read
PredictionJul 13World Cup 2026 Briefing: Semis Set, France Lead Odds
The 2026 World Cup final four is confirmed. France lead title odds at +140 ahead of Tuesday's clash with Spain, while England face Argentina in Atlanta on Wednesday.
6 min read
PredictionJul 13What the Prediction-Market Tape Is Saying This Week
Seven World Cup contracts resolved to zero this week, generating $74M in 24h volume. The signal isn't in the prices — it's in the mechanics.
10 min read
PredictionJul 12World Cup 2026 Daily Briefing: July 12 — Final Four Set
All four 2026 World Cup semifinalists are confirmed. Argentina edged Switzerland 3–1 AET; England beat Norway 2–1. France vs. Spain and England vs. Argentina are next.
6 min read
PredictionJul 10Norway vs England: 2026 World Cup Quarter-Final Preview
Norway vs England kicks off 21:00 UTC on 11 July 2026 at Hard Rock Stadium. England are favoured but Norway's Haaland makes this a genuine contest for a semi-final place.
6 min read
PredictionJul 10World Cup 2026 Daily Briefing: July 10 Quarterfinals
France beat Morocco 2-0 on July 9 to reach the semis. Today Spain face Belgium at 3 PM ET in Inglewood. Full results, odds shifts, and what to watch.
6 min read
PredictionJul 9World Cup 2026 Briefing: France vs. Morocco Opens QFs
The 2026 World Cup quarterfinals begin July 9 with France vs. Morocco in Foxborough. All co-hosts are out; live odds and markets tracked at WeeBet.
6 min read
PredictionJul 9Prediction Markets' Three-Front Regulatory War Arrives
ESMA weaponised the 2018 binary options ban, Judge Torres denied Kalshi's preemption argument, and Polymarket faces a consumer-protection lawsuit over oracle governance. The industry's risk profile just changed.
11 min read
PredictionJul 8France vs Morocco: 2026 World Cup Quarter-Final Preview
France meet Morocco in the 2026 FIFA World Cup quarter-finals at 20:00 UTC on July 9. Les Bleus are –175 favourites, with Mbappé on seven goals and a 2022 semi-final edge to defend.
6 min read
PredictionJul 8Spain 1–0 Portugal: Merino Ends Ronaldo's World Cup
Spain eliminated Portugal 1–0 on July 6 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Round of 16, with Mikel Merino scoring a stoppage-time winner to end Cristiano Ronaldo's World Cup career.
5 min read
PredictionJul 8Switzerland vs Colombia: World Cup 2026 Round of 16 Preview
Switzerland face Colombia in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Round of 16 at BC Place, Vancouver. Colombia are slight favourites; the Swiss are unbeaten in 18. Full preview inside.
5 min read
PredictionJul 8Argentina vs Egypt: 2026 World Cup Round of 16 Preview
Argentina host Egypt at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on 7 July 2026 (16:00 UTC). La Albiceleste are -310 favourites; here's everything you need to know before kickoff.
5 min read
PredictionJul 7Norway 2–1 Brazil: Haaland Dumps Seleção Out of World Cup
Erling Haaland scored twice in the final 11 minutes as Norway stunned Brazil 2–1 on July 5, 2026, ending the Seleção's World Cup campaign in the Round of 16.
5 min read
PredictionJul 7USA vs. Belgium: 2026 World Cup Round of 16 Preview
USA host Belgium at Seattle Stadium on July 7, 2026 in the World Cup R16. Markets lean Belgium, but Balogun's reinstatement tightened the lines.
5 min read
PredictionJul 7Portugal vs Spain: 2026 World Cup Round of 16 Preview
Portugal face Spain on July 6, 2026 (19:00 UTC) in the 2026 World Cup Round of 16. Spain are heavy favorites per Opta (48.6%), while Ronaldo's Portugal carry the Nations League title.
5 min read
PredictionJul 7France 1–0 Paraguay: Mbappé Penalty Sends Les Bleus to QFs
France edged Paraguay 1–0 on July 4 in Philadelphia as Kylian Mbappé's 70th-minute penalty settled a tightly contested Round of 16 tie, confirming the moneyline favourite but busting the Over 2.5 total.
5 min read
PredictionJul 6Mexico vs England: 2026 World Cup Round of 16 Preview
Mexico host England at the Azteca on July 6 (00:00 UTC) in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Round of 16. England are favoured but face Mexico's unbeaten home record and Quinones in stunning form.
5 min read
PredictionJul 6Brazil vs Norway: 2026 World Cup Round of 16 Preview
Brazil host Norway at MetLife Stadium on July 5 (20:00 UTC) as -130 favourites, but face a side they have never beaten in four prior meetings.
6 min read
PredictionJul 6Paraguay vs France: 2026 World Cup Round of 16 Preview
France vs Paraguay, July 4, 2026, 21:00 UTC. Les Bleus carry five wins, 14 goals and tournament-record form into Philadelphia. Paraguay's fairytale run says otherwise.
5 min read
PredictionJul 6What the Prediction-Market Tape Is Saying This Week
Haaland's brace over Brazil and Germany's penalty exit drove the sharpest repricing of the tournament. Here's what $62.9M in 24-hour volume actually signals.
10 min read
PredictionJul 6Canada vs Morocco Preview: World Cup 2026 Round of 16
Morocco face co-hosts Canada in the 2026 World Cup Round of 16 at Houston Stadium on July 4 (17:00 UTC). Here's the form, key players, H2H, and what the odds say.
5 min read
PredictionJul 5Colombia vs Ghana: 2026 World Cup Round of 32 Preview
Colombia lead Ghana 1–0 in their 2026 FIFA World Cup Round of 32 tie at Kansas City Stadium. Jhon Arias struck on 14 minutes as Néstor Lorenzo's side control the match.
5 min read
PredictionJul 5Argentina vs Cape Verde: 2026 World Cup Round of 32 Preview
Argentina host historic debutants Cape Verde in the 2026 World Cup Round of 32 on July 3 at 22:00 UTC. Messi's side are -800 favourites. Full form, odds, and markets here.
5 min read
PredictionJul 5Australia vs Egypt Preview: 2026 World Cup Round of 32
Australia and Egypt meet in the 2026 World Cup Round of 32 on July 3 at 18:00 UTC. Egypt are slight favorites; live odds and match markets at WeeBet.
5 min read
PredictionJul 5Switzerland vs Algeria: 2026 World Cup Round of 32 Preview
Switzerland face Algeria in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Round of 32 at BC Place, Vancouver on July 3 at 03:00 UTC, with Opta giving La Nati a 63% chance of advancing.
5 min read
PredictionJul 4Portugal vs Croatia: 2026 World Cup Round of 32 Preview
Portugal face Croatia in the 2026 World Cup Round of 32 at 23:00 UTC on July 2. Ronaldo and Modrić headline a match loaded with legacy stakes and market intrigue.
5 min read
PredictionJul 4Spain vs. Austria: 2026 World Cup Round of 32 Preview
Spain take on Austria in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Round of 32 at SoFi Stadium on July 2. Here's the full pre-match breakdown — form, key players, head-to-head, and market positions.
5 min read
PredictionJul 4USA vs Bosnia & Herzegovina: 2026 World Cup Round of 32
USA beat Bosnia & Herzegovina 2–0 in the 2026 World Cup Round of 32, with Balogun scoring before a VAR red card and Tillman sealing it from a free kick.
5 min read
PredictionJul 4Belgium vs Senegal: 2026 World Cup Round of 32 Preview
Belgium face Senegal in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Round of 32 on July 1 at 20:00 UTC. The Red Devils are favoured, but Senegal's defensive cohesion and counter-attacking pace make this a genuine contest.
6 min read
PredictionJul 3England vs DR Congo: 2026 World Cup Round of 32 Preview
England face DR Congo in the 2026 World Cup Round of 32 at Atlanta Stadium on July 1 (16:00 UTC). Kane and Bellingham lead heavy favourites against a resilient Leopards side making their knockout debut.
5 min read
PredictionJul 3Mexico vs Ecuador: 2026 World Cup Round of 32 Preview
Mexico host Ecuador at 02:00 UTC on July 1 in the 2026 World Cup Round of 32. El Tri enter unbeaten and without conceding, but Ecuador's upset of Germany makes them dangerous.
5 min read
PredictionJul 3Colombia vs Portugal: Group K Decider Preview
Colombia host Portugal in a 2026 World Cup Group K finale at 23:30 UTC on June 27. Los Cafeteros need only a draw to finish first; live odds at WeeBet.
5 min read
PredictionJul 3Panama vs England Preview: 2026 World Cup Group L Finale
England are -600 favorites to beat already-eliminated Panama on June 27 at MetLife Stadium, needing a win to secure top spot in Group L.
5 min read
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