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Daily reporting on regulation, launches, and market moves across prediction markets, crypto, sweepstakes, and DFS — curated, never reposted.
New York Keeps Gambling Rules on Kalshi, For Now
A NY federal judge denied Kalshi's injunction request this week, letting the state enforce gambling laws against the prediction market platform while litigation continues.
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Prediction7h agoPrediction Markets Hit $30bn in World Cup Volume
Prediction markets processed $30bn in World Cup trading volume in June 2026. Kalshi and Polymarket both hit record highs, per PokerNews.
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Prediction15h agoPolymarket Files for Regulated Margin Trading in US
Polymarket has filed U.S. regulatory applications for margin trading, chasing Kalshi's March 2026 approval. Approval would open leveraged prediction markets to American users.
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Prediction19h agoPolymarket User Stakes $408K on Putin Losing Power
A Polymarket user bet $408,000 on Putin losing power by Dec. 31, 2026. The on-chain position underscores rising whale activity in prediction markets.
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BreakingPrediction1d agoESMA: Some Prediction Markets Are Banned Binary Options
Prediction1d agoPolymarket Launches U.S. Blitz After Four-Year Ban
BreakingPrediction2d agoNY Judge Denies Kalshi Injunction in NYSGC Dispute
BreakingPrediction2d agoKalshi Appeals NY Ruling on Sports Event Contracts
BreakingPrediction3d agoTraders Sue Polymarket Over Strategy BTC Sale Resolution
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Prediction4d agoSouth Korea Weighs Action Against Polymarket
South Korea's review body is considering a corrective action against Polymarket over gambling concerns. The platform will be heard before any decision is made.
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Prediction4d agoCan Prediction Markets Crack Europe's Gambling Rules?
Gaming in Europe webinar puts prediction markets on trial this week. Experts question whether Kalshi and Polymarket fit any existing European licence category.
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Prediction4d agoAmericans Bet $571M on Polymarket Despite U.S. Ban
U.S.-linked wallets traded $571M on Polymarket despite a legal ban, making Americans the platform's largest user group by volume.
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Prediction5d agoKalshi Fights State Regulators in Messy U.S. Legal War
Kalshi and prediction market rivals face mounting state-level legal challenges in July 2026, even as federal allies push back. Outcomes will shape the sector's U.S. viability.
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BreakingPredictionJul 3Spotify Pulls Branding From Kalshi and Polymarket
Spotify demanded Kalshi and Polymarket remove its branding after fake streams manipulated a $3M music bet. The incident exposes oracle fraud risk in prediction markets.
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PredictionJul 3US Dominates Polymarket Bets Despite Geoblock: Allium
Allium data show US wallets dominate Polymarket despite its geoblock. The finding raises fresh CFTC enforcement risk for the decentralised prediction platform.
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PredictionJul 3Warsh Eyes Prediction Markets as Fed Data Source
Kevin Warsh is exploring prediction markets as a Fed data tool. Institutional adoption could reshape the sector's regulatory and capital landscape.
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PredictionJul 2Gensler and CME Escalate War on Prediction Markets
Gary Gensler and the CME have challenged prediction-market expansion, adding legal and political pressure to CFTC oversight debates.
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BreakingPredictionJul 2Polymarket Sues New Mexico in Federal Court
Polymarket filed a federal suit against New Mexico's AG and Gaming Control Board this week. The case is one of 12+ active state disputes over prediction market legality.
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PredictionJul 2SafeBets Launches No-Wager Rival to Kalshi, Polymarket
SafeBets launched a no-wager prediction platform in July 2026, challenging Kalshi and Polymarket's risk-first model. The move tests whether mainstream users engage without financial stakes.
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PredictionJul 2Meta Eyes Prediction Markets as Kalshi Battles Illinois Tax
Meta is reportedly exploring prediction markets while Kalshi sues Illinois to block a new sector tax. Both moves could redefine the industry.
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PredictionJul 2Kalshi and Polymarket Hit $45B Volume in June
Kalshi and Polymarket combined for $45B in June volume, up 75% month-over-month. Kalshi alone grew 87.4% to $31.5B, per The Block.
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PredictionJul 2Kalshi Hits $100B Lifetime Volume and Daily Record
Kalshi surpassed $100B in lifetime trading volume this week, then broke its daily record twice by topping $1B on consecutive days.
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BreakingPredictionJul 1Michigan Court Blocks Kalshi Sports Contracts
Michigan judge bars Kalshi from offering sports event contracts via TRO. Two losses in days raise doubts about its federal-jurisdiction strategy.
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PredictionJul 1Kalshi Sues Ohio in State Court to Block $5M Fine
Kalshi sued Ohio's Casino Control Commission on June 29 to block a $5M fine. The case sharpens the federal-vs-state jurisdiction battle over prediction markets.
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BreakingPredictionJul 1Kalshi Sports Markets Banned in Michigan for 14 Days
A Michigan judge blocked Kalshi's sports markets on June 30, 2026. The 14-day order challenges the platform's federal preemption argument.
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BreakingPredictionJun 26Kalshi Targets $40B Valuation, Pulling Away From Polymarket
Kalshi is chasing a $40B valuation in a Q3 2026 funding round, per the Financial Times. The figure far exceeds rival Polymarket's last known worth.
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BreakingPredictionJun 26Zuckerberg Eyes Prediction Market App to Rival Polymarket
Meta's Zuckerberg is reportedly building a prediction market app modeled on Polymarket and Kalshi. The move could redraw the sector's competitive and regulatory map.
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BreakingPredictionJun 25Kalshi Targets $40B Valuation in New Funding Round
Kalshi is in talks to raise capital at a $40B valuation, per the FT. The figure nearly doubles its last raise and cements prediction markets as mainstream.
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BreakingPredictionJun 25Kalshi Sues Illinois Over Prediction Market Law
Kalshi filed suit against Illinois this week over a state law regulating prediction markets, arguing federal CFTC authority preempts it.
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PredictionJun 24World Cup Lifts Kalshi OI Past $1 Billion First Time
Kalshi hit $1.16B in open interest for the first time ever while Polymarket volume jumped 300%, both fuelled by World Cup 2026 trading.
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PredictionJun 24Prediction Markets Threaten UK Harm Prevention Frame
Prediction markets risk undermining UK gambling harm programmes by operating outside safer-gambling rules. Reclassification debates are expected later in 2026.
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PredictionJun 23Cboe Eyes Shift to Crypto Perpetual Futures
Cboe is weighing a conversion of its BTC and ETH continuous futures into perpetual contracts as US rules shift. Coinbase and Kalshi are already expanding rival offerings.
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PredictionJun 23Kalshi Blocks India, Restricted List Hits 55 Markets
Kalshi added India to its 55-country restricted list in June 2026, following official warnings to VPN providers enabling offshore platform access.
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BreakingPredictionJun 22Trader Pockets $9M on Spain-Cape Verde Draw at Polymarket
A Polymarket trader netted ~$9M after Spain drew Cape Verde in a World Cup upset. The payout highlights prediction markets' asymmetric risk-reward vs. sportsbooks.
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BreakingPredictionJun 22Polymarket Staged $1.9M in Fake Bets via Influencers
Polymarket paid creators to fake winning bets on dummy sites. None of ~$1.9M shown in 1,100+ videos were real, per the WSJ.
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BreakingPredictionJun 22Kentucky Sues Kalshi and Polymarket Over Sports Betting
Kentucky sued Kalshi and Polymarket this week, calling their sports-outcome contracts illegal betting. The move widens a growing state-level legal offensive.
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PredictionJun 20NCPG Creates Prediction Markets Arm After $2M Kalshi Gift
The NCPG launched a prediction-markets subdivision this week after Kalshi donated $2 million. The move brings formal harm-reduction oversight to a fast-growing sector.
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PredictionJun 20Kalshi Explores IPO After Hitting $2B Revenue Mark
Kalshi is in early IPO discussions with investment banks after surpassing $2B in annualized revenue. Sports contract legal scrutiny complicates the path to a public listing.
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BreakingPredictionJun 20Nine EU Regulators Unite to Block Prediction Markets
Nine European regulators launched coordinated enforcement against unlicensed prediction markets this week. Polymarket and Kalshi are already blocked in several jurisdictions.
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PredictionJun 20Kalshi Expands to Canada; Polymarket Trader Loses Millions
Kalshi landed a Canadian market deal this week as a Polymarket trader lost millions on a shock World Cup result. Both stories expose the fault lines between regulated and decentralized prediction markets.
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PredictionJun 19Polymarket Bettor Drops $1M on Spain–Cape Verde Draw
A Polymarket user lost $1 million this week betting Spain would win its 2026 World Cup opener. Cape Verde's draw made the on-chain loss instant and public.
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PredictionJun 19Kalshi Opens IPO Talks at $22B Valuation
Kalshi is in early IPO talks with investment banks, per The Block. The platform is valued at $22B after a $1B Series F in May 2026.
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PredictionJun 18Wealthsimple Brings Kalshi Prediction Markets to Canada
Wealthsimple launched a Kalshi-powered prediction market app for Canadian investors in June 2026. The move follows regulatory approval and offers a potential blueprint for international expansion.
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PredictionJun 18Prediction Markets Lead Debate at SBC Summit Americas 2026
SBC Summit Americas 2026 foregrounded prediction market debates and new networking formats. Operators and regulators attended June 9–11 in Fort Lauderdale.
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BreakingPredictionJun 18Nine European Nations Unite to Block Prediction Markets
Nine European countries signed a collective agreement in June 2026 to monitor and block prediction market platforms during the FIFA World Cup.
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PredictionJun 18Polymarket Loses Injunction Bid Against Michigan
A federal judge denied Polymarket's preliminary injunction against Michigan this week, ruling the platform failed to prove irreparable harm.
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BreakingPredictionJun 18Kentucky Sues Kalshi, Polymarket in Prediction Market Clash
Kentucky sued Kalshi, Polymarket, and three brokerages in June 2026 over illegal sports prediction contracts. The case tests whether CFTC approval overrides state gambling law.
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PredictionJun 18Chalamet Kalshi Ad Triggers Fan Backlash
Timothée Chalamet's Kalshi ad drew fan mockery this week, spotlighting the reputational risks of celebrity deals in prediction markets.
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PredictionJun 17Kalshi Adds StarCompliance to Bolster Market Surveillance
Kalshi has partnered with StarCompliance to deploy trading surveillance tools as regulatory pressure on prediction markets intensifies in June 2026.
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BreakingPredictionJun 17KSA Fines Polymarket €420,000 for Dutch Market Breach
The KSA has fined Polymarket €420,000 after the platform ignored a February 2026 warning to exit the Netherlands market.
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