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Daily reporting on regulation, launches, and market moves across prediction markets, crypto, sweepstakes, and DFS — curated, never reposted.
NFL, 39 States Back NJ Push for SCOTUS Kalshi Review
The NFL and 39 state AGs filed amicus briefs this week urging SCOTUS to hear NJ's challenge against Kalshi. The outcome could redraw federal vs. state gambling jurisdiction.
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BreakingPrediction1d agoNFL Tells Supreme Court Kalshi Contracts Are Gambling
The NFL filed a Supreme Court amicus brief this week backing New Jersey's bid to classify Kalshi's sports prediction contracts as gambling, not swaps.
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Prediction1d agoIllinois Judge Backs Kalshi, Calls Contracts Swaps
An Illinois federal judge ruled this week that Kalshi's sports contracts are likely swaps, stripping state regulators of licensing authority over the platform.
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Prediction2d agoGlobal Regulators Push Supreme Court to Hear Kalshi Case
IAGR and NAGRA filed a joint amicus brief Oct. 2, 2026, urging SCOTUS to hear NJ's case against Kalshi's federal preemption claim.
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Prediction2d agoPolymarket CEO Slams 100x Token Chasing as Irrational
Prediction3d agoKalshi Kills Volume Rewards After Wash Trade Heat
Prediction3d agoPolymarket V2 Swaps Gnosis Setup for ERC-1155 and pUSD
Prediction3d agoPolymarket Launches Protocol V2 Smart Contract Overhaul
Prediction3d agoUnderdog Revenue Doubles as IG Group Q3 Stumbles
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Prediction4d agoFederal Court Backs CFTC and Kalshi Against Illinois
Judge Martha Pacold granted preliminary injunctions blocking Illinois from regulating CFTC-registered prediction market operators. The Oct. 2 ruling is a rare win for the sector in 2026.
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Prediction4d agoPolymarket Appeals €420K KSA Fine in The Hague
Polymarket is challenging a €420,000 KSA penalty in The Hague after being blacklisted in the Netherlands for unlicensed gambling. A ruling could reshape EU prediction-market rules.
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Prediction6d agoEuropean Lotteries Pushes for Framework-Based Rules
European Lotteries wants EU regulators to govern prediction markets by legal function, not terminology. The move targets a compliance gap hurting licensed lottery operators.
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PredictionOct 2Crypto Billions Return, But the Premiums Are Gone
Kalshi seeks a $40B valuation and Blockchain.com pursues an IPO, but crypto treasury companies can no longer command bull-era premiums.
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BreakingPredictionOct 2Czech Republic Moves to Block Kalshi by Mid-October
Czech authorities added Kalshi to its unauthorised operator blacklist on 30 Sept 2026. ISPs must block the platform within 15 days.
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BreakingPredictionOct 1NCPG Chief Resigns After Kalshi Partnership Fallout
Heather Maurer resigned as NCPG executive director this week after member agencies quit over the council's Kalshi partnership. Leadership vacuum arrives as prediction markets expand.
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PredictionOct 1EL Warns Europe: Don't Regulate Prediction Markets Blindly
European Lotteries issued a formal caution in October 2026, warning regulators not to take prediction markets at face value when drafting policy.
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PredictionOct 1Kalshi Kills Volume Rewards Program Nearly a Year Early
Kalshi is terminating its Volume Incentive Program early per a Sept. 28 CFTC filing. Market makers and high-volume traders face immediate payout disruption.
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PredictionOct 1Kalshi Loses Sixth Circuit Appeal, Faces State Bans
The Sixth Circuit ruled against Kalshi on Sept 26 2026, clearing Ohio and Tennessee to ban its sports contracts. It's the platform's sixth appellate loss.
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BreakingPredictionOct 1New York Adds Polymarket to Its Prediction Market Crackdown
New York has extended its legal campaign against prediction markets to Polymarket, joining Kalshi as a target of state enforcement action.
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BreakingPredictionSep 30Kalshi Kills Incentive Program After Wash Trading Claims
Kalshi ends its liquidity incentive program amid wash trading allegations. September 2026 volume hit a record $52.98B, per The Block.
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BreakingPredictionSep 30CFTC Probes Kinzinger's Kalshi Bets on Own Pardon
The CFTC is investigating Adam Kinzinger for betting on Kalshi markets tied to his own pardon. He reported an $823 gain and denied holding inside information.
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BreakingPredictionSep 30Kalshi Eyes $40B Valuation in New Funding Round
Kalshi is in advanced talks to raise at a $40B valuation, up from $22B just four months ago. The round signals surging institutional confidence in regulated prediction markets.
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PredictionSep 29WSJ: Polymarket CEO Told Staff to Ignore Fraud
Polymarket's CEO directed staff to overlook payment fraud to keep growing, per the WSJ. The move puts users and regulators on high alert.
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BreakingPredictionSep 28New York Sues Polymarket Over Illegal Gambling Claim
New York sued Polymarket this week, alleging the crypto prediction market runs an illegal gambling operation. A court injunction could block platform access statewide.
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BreakingPredictionSep 26Kalshi Loses Appeal, Eyes Supreme Court Showdown
The 6th Circuit ruled against Kalshi in September 2026, backing state gambling laws. A Supreme Court petition now looms.
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BreakingPredictionSep 26Sixth Circuit Rules Kalshi Sports Contracts Aren't Swaps
The Sixth Circuit ruled Kalshi's sports contracts aren't swaps, removing CFTC cover. States now control regulatory oversight of those products.
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PredictionSep 25Kalshi Denies Accusations of Fake Crypto Perp Volume
Kalshi this week denied accusations it inflated crypto perpetual futures volume. The dispute poses serious reputational risk for the regulated prediction-market platform.
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PredictionSep 25Polymarket Pushes EU Regulators for Finance Status
Polymarket has launched a European lobbying push to gain financial services status. Success would open restricted EU markets and reshape prediction market regulation.
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BreakingPredictionSep 24New York Sues to Ban Polymarket as Illegal Gambling
New York filed a lawsuit this week to ban Polymarket, labelling it an illegal gambling operation lacking state licensure. The case could set a national precedent for prediction market regulation.
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- PredictionSep 24
NCPG Chief Defends Kalshi Deal as Members Quit
NCPG board president Derek Longmeier defended the Kalshi partnership this week as staff resigned and member groups quit. The split threatens NCPG's regulatory credibility.
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PredictionSep 23Kalshi Denies CFTC Probe Into Ether Perpetual Trading
Kalshi denied a CFTC investigation into its ether perpetual market, citing liquidity incentives. The denial comes as scrutiny of crypto prediction products intensifies.
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PredictionSep 23Kalshi Loses Again at Ninth Circuit as CA Tribes Win
The Ninth Circuit ruled against Kalshi again this week, siding with California tribes challenging its sports contracts. The loss deepens Kalshi's legal troubles in western U.S. markets.
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PredictionSep 22Kalshi Crypto Volumes Dominated by Repetitive Trades
A single $5,499 clip drove 57% of sampled ether-perpetual volume on Kalshi, raising market integrity questions. CoinDesk Markets published the findings September 22, 2026.
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PredictionSep 22Polymarket Lobbies Europe for Financial Service Status
Polymarket is lobbying UK and European regulators to classify its products as financial services, not gambling. The firm has already been banned in Italy, France, and the Netherlands.
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PredictionSep 21Prediction Markets Week 1: Bitcoin Rebounds, Senate Slips
Bitcoin rebound and Senate setback contracts led prediction-market volatility this week. Tanner Lux launches a recurring PokerNews movers series.
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BreakingPredictionSep 21Kalshi Faces Fake Volume Allegations on Ether Futures
A critic on X alleges Kalshi inflated ether perpetual futures volumes using identical $5,500 trades. Kalshi's crypto chief has responded publicly.
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BreakingPredictionSep 20Polymarket Hit by $10M Fraud Bid Amid Compliance Gaps
Polymarket faced a $10M fraud attempt and a 500-account hack as leadership deprioritised compliance, per WSJ and The Block.
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PredictionSep 19Kalshi Files for US Stock Perpetual Futures
Kalshi has filed to offer perpetual futures on individual US stocks, joining Coinbase and Bitnomial in seeking regulatory approval for the product.
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PredictionSep 18US Open: Did Kalshi's Prediction Markets Get It Right?
PokerNews analyzed Kalshi's pre-match probabilities across 254 US Open singles matches. The results test whether regulated prediction markets produce genuine price discovery.
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PredictionSep 18Ninth Circuit Backs Tribes Against Kalshi Sports Contracts
The Ninth Circuit ruled this week two California tribes will likely win their claim that Kalshi's sports contracts violate IGRA. The decision threatens Kalshi's broader US expansion.
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BreakingPredictionSep 17Genius Sports Launches Prediction.com Market Hub
Genius Sports launched Prediction.com, a prediction market comparison site built on its $1.2bn Legend acquisition. The platform aggregates prices across major operators.
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BreakingPredictionSep 17South Korea Charges 26 Polymarket Users for Illegal Gambling
South Korean police charged 26 Polymarket users under gambling law weeks after regulators blocked the platform. On-chain activity was traced to identifiable residents.
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BreakingPredictionSep 17Lithuania Blocks Polymarket in EU Prediction Market First
Lithuania's LPT has blocked Polymarket, the first prediction market restricted by the regulator. The move signals rising EU compliance risk for the sector.
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PredictionSep 17Kalshi, Polymarket Lead NFL Week 1 Prediction Markets
Kalshi and Polymarket topped all rivals in NFL Week 1 prediction market volume as of September 2026. Historic industry-wide output signals growing traction for event-contract platforms.
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PredictionSep 16Ohio Quits NCPG Over Kalshi; Massachusetts May Follow
Ohio is the third state regulator to quit the NCPG over its Kalshi stance. Massachusetts is now weighing the same move.
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BreakingPredictionSep 15Bitcoin Sheds 1.7% as Clarity Act Odds Collapse
Bitcoin fell to $76,862 on Sept 15 2026 as Polymarket odds on the Clarity Act halved. Crypto iGaming operators face compounded volatility risk.
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PredictionSep 14Kalshi Files for 24/7 Tesla and Nvidia Perps
Kalshi plans to seek U.S. approval for ~60 stock and ETF perpetual futures, including Tesla and Nvidia, for round-the-clock trading.
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BreakingPredictionSep 14ESMA Targets Polymarket and Kalshi Over EU Auth Gap
ESMA says Polymarket and Kalshi lack EU authorization and questions whether partial geo-blocks adequately exclude European users.
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PredictionSep 11Kalshi Blocked: No Prediction Markets at NFL Melbourne
Kalshi and rival prediction markets are banned in Australia, locking out fans at the NFL Melbourne game. Locally licensed sportsbooks remain the only legal option.
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PredictionSep 11Kalshi, Catalist Relaunch Streaming Deal With Regulatory Fix
Kalshi and Catalist Sports reannounced their live-streaming deal this week, adding regulatory language missing from the original. The episode highlights compliance pressure on prediction-market operators.
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