What are the odds of Fed rate hike in 2026?

As of July 2026, the prediction market on Polymarket implies a 66% probability of YES (down 9 points in the last 24h).

Where can I trade Fed rate hike in 2026?

This contract trades on Polymarket. WeeBet links you to the source platform — we don't accept wagers.

When does this market resolve

It is scheduled to resolve on December 9, 2026, at which point YES or NO pays out based on the platform's resolution source.

PolymarketEconomy

☆ Watch

Fed rate hike in 2026?

As of July 2026, Polymarket traders give “Fed rate hike in 2026?” a 66% chance of resolving YES, down 9 points over the past 24 hours. $911.3k has traded in the last 24 hours, and it resolves on December 9, 2026. A YES price of 66% is the market-implied probability the event happens — not a guarantee. Verify the full resolution criteria on Polymarket before trading.

YES

66¢

down 9 points 24h

34¢

24h volume

$911.3k

Open interest

—

Fed rate hike in 2026?

Polymarket

as of Jul 30, 2026

66%

−9 pts(24h)

−1 pts(7d)

Slight downtick

YES probability for "Fed rate hike in 2026?" moved from 55% to 66% across 412 points. Current 66%. Data points: Jul 1: 55%, Jul 1: 55%, Jul 1: 54%, Jul 1: 55%, Jul 1: 55%, Jul 1: 55%, Jul 1: 55%, Jul 2: 53%, Jul 2: 53%, Jul 2: 53%, Jul 2: 48%, Jul 2: 47%, Jul 2: 47%, Jul 3: 46%, Jul 3: 46%, Jul 3: 46%, Jul 3: 46%, Jul 7: 49%, Jul 8: 50%, Jul 8: 50%, Jul 8: 50%, Jul 8: 50%, Jul 8: 50%, Jul 8: 50%, Jul 8: 50%, Jul 8: 50%, Jul 8: 50%, Jul 8: 53%, Jul 8: 53%, Jul 8: 59%, Jul 8: 59%, Jul 8: 59%, Jul 8: 58%, Jul 12: 58%, Jul 12: 58%, Jul 12: 58%, Jul 12: 58%, Jul 12: 63%, Jul 12: 62%, Jul 12: 64%, Jul 12: 64%, Jul 12: 64%, Jul 12: 64%, Jul 12: 64%, Jul 12: 64%, Jul 12: 64%, Jul 12: 64%, Jul 12: 64%, Jul 12: 64%, Jul 12: 62%, Jul 12: 62%, Jul 12: 62%, Jul 12: 62%, Jul 12: 60%, Jul 12: 60%, Jul 12: 60%, Jul 12: 59%, Jul 12: 59%, Jul 12: 59%, Jul 12: 59%, Jul 12: 59%, Jul 12: 59%, Jul 12: 60%, Jul 12: 61%, Jul 12: 61%, Jul 12: 61%, Jul 12: 61%, Jul 12: 61%, Jul 12: 61%, Jul 12: 61%, Jul 12: 61%, Jul 12: 63%, Jul 12: 63%, Jul 13: 60%, Jul 13: 58%, Jul 13: 62%, Jul 13: 60%, Jul 13: 59%, Jul 13: 59%, Jul 13: 71%, Jul 13: 69%, Jul 13: 70%, Jul 13: 73%, Jul 13: 72%, Jul 13: 72%, Jul 13: 72%, Jul 13: 72%, Jul 13: 72%, Jul 13: 72%, Jul 14: 70%, Jul 14: 71%, Jul 14: 71%, Jul 14: 71%, Jul 14: 71%, Jul 14: 71%, Jul 14: 70%, Jul 14: 70%, Jul 14: 70%, Jul 14: 71%, Jul 14: 71%, Jul 14: 71%, Jul 14: 69%, Jul 14: 69%, Jul 14: 70%, Jul 14: 69%, Jul 14: 70%, Jul 14: 70%, Jul 14: 69%, Jul 14: 70%, Jul 14: 70%, Jul 14: 70%, Jul 14: 60%, Jul 14: 62%, Jul 14: 65%, Jul 14: 65%, Jul 14: 55%, Jul 14: 56%, Jul 14: 53%, Jul 14: 52%, Jul 14: 51%, Jul 14: 51%, Jul 14: 51%, Jul 14: 52%, Jul 14: 52%, Jul 14: 52%, Jul 14: 52%, Jul 14: 52%, Jul 14: 52%, Jul 14: 52%, Jul 14: 52%, Jul 14: 52%, Jul 14: 53%, Jul 14: 53%, Jul 14: 53%, Jul 14: 53%, Jul 14: 53%, Jul 15: 53%, Jul 15: 53%, Jul 15: 53%, Jul 15: 53%, Jul 15: 53%, Jul 15: 53%, Jul 15: 53%, Jul 15: 53%, Jul 15: 53%, Jul 15: 53%, Jul 15: 53%, Jul 15: 53%, Jul 15: 53%, Jul 15: 53%, Jul 15: 53%, Jul 15: 53%, Jul 15: 53%, Jul 15: 53%, Jul 15: 53%, Jul 15: 52%, Jul 15: 52%, Jul 15: 52%, Jul 15: 52%, Jul 23: 66%, Jul 23: 66%, Jul 23: 65%, Jul 23: 65%, Jul 23: 65%, Jul 23: 65%, Jul 23: 67%, Jul 23: 67%, Jul 23: 67%, Jul 23: 69%, Jul 23: 71%, Jul 23: 71%, Jul 23: 71%, Jul 23: 69%, Jul 23: 69%, Jul 23: 69%, Jul 23: 69%, Jul 23: 69%, Jul 23: 69%, Jul 23: 69%, Jul 23: 69%, Jul 23: 70%, Jul 23: 72%, Jul 23: 72%, Jul 23: 72%, Jul 23: 70%, Jul 23: 71%, Jul 23: 71%, Jul 23: 71%, Jul 23: 71%, Jul 23: 71%, Jul 23: 71%, Jul 23: 71%, Jul 23: 71%, Jul 23: 71%, Jul 23: 71%, Jul 23: 72%, Jul 23: 73%, Jul 23: 77%, Jul 23: 76%, Jul 23: 75%, Jul 23: 75%, Jul 23: 75%, Jul 24: 75%, Jul 24: 75%, Jul 24: 73%, Jul 24: 73%, Jul 24: 73%, Jul 24: 73%, Jul 24: 73%, Jul 24: 73%, Jul 24: 74%, Jul 24: 74%, Jul 24: 74%, Jul 24: 73%, Jul 24: 72%, Jul 24: 72%, Jul 24: 72%, Jul 24: 72%, Jul 24: 72%, Jul 24: 72%, Jul 24: 72%, Jul 24: 73%, Jul 24: 73%, Jul 24: 72%, Jul 24: 72%, Jul 24: 72%, Jul 24: 71%, Jul 24: 71%, Jul 24: 71%, Jul 24: 71%, Jul 24: 71%, Jul 24: 71%, Jul 24: 71%, Jul 25: 71%, Jul 26: 71%, Jul 26: 71%, Jul 26: 71%, Jul 26: 72%, Jul 26: 72%, Jul 26: 72%, Jul 26: 71%, Jul 26: 71%, Jul 26: 71%, Jul 26: 71%, Jul 26: 70%, Jul 26: 70%, Jul 26: 70%, Jul 26: 69%, Jul 26: 67%, Jul 26: 67%, Jul 26: 67%, Jul 26: 65%, Jul 26: 65%, Jul 26: 65%, Jul 26: 65%, Jul 26: 66%, Jul 26: 66%, Jul 26: 67%, Jul 27: 67%, Jul 27: 67%, Jul 27: 66%, Jul 27: 66%, Jul 27: 66%, Jul 27: 68%, Jul 27: 68%, Jul 27: 68%, Jul 27: 68%, Jul 27: 68%, Jul 27: 68%, Jul 27: 68%, Jul 27: 68%, Jul 27: 68%, Jul 27: 68%, Jul 27: 68%, Jul 27: 68%, Jul 27: 68%, Jul 27: 68%, Jul 27: 68%, Jul 27: 68%, Jul 27: 68%, Jul 27: 68%, Jul 27: 66%, Jul 27: 66%, Jul 27: 69%, Jul 27: 70%, Jul 27: 70%, Jul 27: 70%, Jul 27: 69%, Jul 27: 69%, Jul 27: 69%, Jul 27: 72%, Jul 27: 72%, Jul 27: 72%, Jul 27: 72%, Jul 27: 72%, Jul 27: 73%, Jul 27: 73%, Jul 27: 74%, Jul 27: 72%, Jul 27: 75%, Jul 27: 76%, Jul 28: 76%, Jul 28: 76%, Jul 28: 78%, Jul 28: 78%, Jul 28: 78%, Jul 28: 78%, Jul 28: 79%, Jul 28: 77%, Jul 28: 76%, Jul 28: 78%, Jul 28: 78%, Jul 28: 78%, Jul 28: 78%, Jul 28: 78%, Jul 28: 78%, Jul 28: 78%, Jul 28: 78%, Jul 28: 78%, Jul 28: 78%, Jul 28: 78%, Jul 28: 77%, Jul 28: 78%, Jul 28: 78%, Jul 28: 78%, Jul 28: 77%, Jul 28: 77%, Jul 28: 77%, Jul 28: 77%, Jul 28: 78%, Jul 28: 77%, Jul 28: 77%, Jul 28: 78%, Jul 28: 77%, Jul 28: 77%, Jul 28: 77%, Jul 28: 77%, Jul 28: 76%, Jul 28: 78%, Jul 28: 77%, Jul 28: 77%, Jul 28: 75%, Jul 28: 76%, Jul 28: 76%, Jul 28: 77%, Jul 28: 77%, Jul 28: 76%, Jul 28: 76%, Jul 28: 75%, Jul 29: 75%, Jul 29: 76%, Jul 29: 75%, Jul 29: 75%, Jul 29: 75%, Jul 29: 75%, Jul 29: 75%, Jul 29: 75%, Jul 29: 75%, Jul 29: 75%, Jul 29: 75%, Jul 29: 75%, Jul 29: 76%, Jul 29: 76%, Jul 29: 75%, Jul 29: 75%, Jul 29: 76%, Jul 29: 75%, Jul 29: 75%, Jul 29: 75%, Jul 29: 75%, Jul 29: 76%, Jul 29: 76%, Jul 29: 74%, Jul 29: 74%, Jul 29: 75%, Jul 29: 74%, Jul 29: 75%, Jul 29: 75%, Jul 29: 75%, Jul 29: 75%, Jul 29: 76%, Jul 29: 76%, Jul 29: 77%, Jul 29: 78%, Jul 29: 78%, Jul 29: 77%, Jul 29: 70%, Jul 29: 65%, Jul 29: 62%, Jul 29: 64%, Jul 29: 64%, Jul 29: 61%, Jul 29: 62%, Jul 29: 62%, Jul 29: 63%, Jul 29: 61%, Jul 29: 62%, Jul 30: 62%, Jul 30: 61%, Jul 30: 62%, Jul 30: 61%, Jul 30: 62%, Jul 30: 62%, Jul 30: 62%, Jul 30: 62%, Jul 30: 65%, Jul 30: 64%, Jul 30: 65%, Jul 30: 65%, Jul 30: 66%, Jul 30: 66%, Now: 66%

The WeeBet Angle

Fed rate hike in 2026 on Polymarket

66% — Real money is repricing this.

66%

Implied

$911.3k

Liquidity

−1pts

7-day momentum

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FAQ

What are the odds of Fed rate hike in 2026??: As of July 2026, the prediction market on Polymarket implies a 66% probability of YES (down 9 points in the last 24h).
Where can I trade Fed rate hike in 2026??: This contract trades on Polymarket. WeeBet links you to the source platform — we don't accept wagers.
When does this market resolve?: It is scheduled to resolve on December 9, 2026, at which point YES or NO pays out based on the platform's resolution source.

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