US Dominates Polymarket Bets Despite Geoblock: Allium
On-chain data from Allium reveal American wallets lead Polymarket political betting despite explicit US access restrictions.
US users are bypassing Polymarket's geoblock to place political bets in significant volumes, according to on-chain data from Allium published as of July 2026.
Why It Matters
Allium's data show that American wallets dominate activity on Polymarket despite the platform's explicit block on US participants — a finding with direct regulatory consequences. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has historically treated prediction markets as derivatives subject to US jurisdiction, meaning this activity could accelerate enforcement scrutiny. For crypto-native bettors, it signals that VPN and wallet-based circumvention is widespread enough to register at the data layer, not just anecdotally. Platforms operating in grey zones face compounding risk: user-side workarounds don't insulate operators from regulator action.
Context
Polymarket, a decentralised prediction market built on Polygon, geoblocks US IP addresses following CFTC pressure that resulted in a $1.4 million settlement in 2022. Because the platform settles via smart contracts and users hold their own wallets, enforcement at the user level is technically difficult. Allium's blockchain analytics approach — tracing wallet provenance rather than IP addresses — gives regulators a new evidentiary tool.
What's Next
Allium's report raises the likelihood of renewed CFTC or DOJ scrutiny of Polymarket's US user base as of July 2026; watch for any formal investigative announcements or subpoenas targeting the platform in the coming months. Polymarket has not publicly commented on the findings as of publication.
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Source: CoinTelegraph, July 2026
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