GOP Lawmaker Moves to Add Prediction Markets to Stock Ban

Rep. Bryan Steil plans to amend the House congressional stock ban bill to explicitly cover prediction market platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, according to Decrypt (as of June 2026).

Why It Matters

If the amendment passes, members of Congress would face the same trading restrictions on prediction markets that the bill proposes for individual stocks — closing a loophole that currently lets lawmakers bet on political and economic outcomes they may directly influence. Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi have grown sharply in volume and mainstream visibility, making them an increasingly attractive venue for anyone with advance policy knowledge. The move signals that legislators now view prediction markets as functionally equivalent to securities trading when insider-information risk is present. For Kalshi especially — a CFTC-regulated exchange operating in the U.S. — a federal prohibition on congressional participation would carry significant legal and reputational weight.

Context

The broader congressional stock ban bill targets the long-standing controversy over lawmakers trading individual equities while crafting legislation that moves markets. Prediction markets operated in a regulatory grey zone for years, but Kalshi's 2023 court victory over the CFTC expanded its permitted contract types, and Polymarket's U.S. re-engagement has kept both platforms in the regulatory spotlight as of 2026. Steil's addition reflects growing bipartisan unease that existing ethics rules have not kept pace with new financial instruments.

What's Next

The amended bill must clear committee before reaching a full House vote; no markup date has been publicly confirmed as of June 2026. Kalshi and Polymarket have not yet issued formal responses to Steil's announcement, and lobbying activity on both sides is expected to intensify.

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