Most Americans Oppose Election Betting, Reuters Poll Finds
New public opinion data hands regulators ammunition to restrict prediction market election contracts.
A Reuters poll published as of October 2026 finds that most Americans oppose legalizing prediction market betting on elections, posing a direct challenge to platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi that have built election wagering into their core product.
Why It Matters
Public opinion is a leading indicator of regulatory pressure, and majority opposition gives legislators political cover to restrict or ban election prediction markets outright. The prediction market industry currently allows users to stake real money on U.S. election outcomes alongside sporting events, according to CoinTelegraph. If Congress or the CFTC — which has already sparred with Kalshi over election contracts — moves to align policy with public sentiment, platforms relying on election volume could face existential product decisions. For crypto-native prediction markets operating offshore, enforcement risk also rises when domestic polling hardens against the category. Gambling always carries financial risk; election markets add reputational and regulatory layers on top.
Context
Prediction markets occupy a legal grey zone in the U.S.: the CFTC regulates event contracts, and courts have been inconsistent about where political betting sits relative to commodity trading law. Kalshi won a federal court ruling in 2024 permitting it to list election contracts, but that decision energized opponents who now have fresh polling data to cite. The Reuters survey adds quantitative weight to what had been largely an ideological debate between free-market advocates and critics who argue election betting distorts democratic incentives.
What's Next
Watch for the Reuters poll figures to surface in Congressional hearings or CFTC comment periods targeting prediction market rulemaking in the coming months. Any formal proposal to exclude election contracts from legal event-contract definitions would force platform operators to pivot their product roadmaps fast.
Source: CoinTelegraph / Reuters. Gambling involves risk; prediction markets may carry additional regulatory and liquidity risks.
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