Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
As of August 2026, Polymarket traders give “Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?” a 64% chance of resolving YES. $46.3k has traded in the last 24 hours, and it resolves on October 4, 2026. A YES price of 64% is the market-implied probability the event happens — not a guarantee. Verify the full resolution criteria on Polymarket before trading.
YES
64¢
NO
36¢
24h volume
$46.3k
Open interest
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Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
PolymarketYES probability for "Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?" moved from 60% to 64% across 147 points. Current 64%. Data points: Jul 23: 60%, Jul 23: 60%, Jul 23: 60%, Jul 23: 60%, Aug 1: 67%, Aug 1: 67%, Aug 2: 67%, Aug 2: 67%, Aug 2: 67%, Aug 2: 67%, Aug 2: 67%, Aug 2: 67%, Aug 2: 67%, Aug 2: 67%, Aug 2: 67%, Aug 2: 67%, Aug 2: 67%, Aug 2: 66%, Aug 2: 66%, Aug 2: 66%, Aug 2: 66%, Aug 2: 67%, Aug 2: 67%, Aug 2: 66%, Aug 2: 66%, Aug 2: 67%, Aug 2: 66%, Aug 2: 66%, Aug 2: 67%, Aug 2: 67%, Aug 2: 67%, Aug 2: 67%, Aug 2: 67%, Aug 2: 66%, Aug 2: 67%, Aug 2: 65%, Aug 2: 65%, Aug 2: 65%, Aug 2: 66%, Aug 2: 66%, Aug 2: 65%, Aug 2: 65%, Aug 2: 65%, Aug 4: 65%, Aug 4: 65%, Aug 4: 65%, Aug 4: 65%, Aug 4: 65%, Aug 4: 64%, Aug 4: 64%, Aug 4: 65%, Aug 4: 65%, Aug 4: 64%, Aug 4: 64%, Aug 4: 65%, Aug 4: 65%, Aug 4: 65%, Aug 4: 65%, Aug 4: 65%, Aug 4: 65%, Aug 4: 65%, Aug 4: 65%, Aug 4: 65%, Aug 4: 65%, Aug 4: 64%, Aug 4: 65%, Aug 5: 65%, Aug 5: 65%, Aug 5: 65%, Aug 5: 65%, Aug 5: 65%, Aug 5: 65%, Aug 5: 65%, Aug 5: 64%, Aug 5: 64%, Aug 6: 65%, Aug 6: 65%, Aug 6: 64%, Aug 6: 64%, Aug 6: 64%, Aug 6: 64%, Aug 6: 64%, Aug 6: 64%, Aug 6: 64%, Aug 6: 65%, Aug 6: 65%, Aug 6: 65%, Aug 6: 64%, Aug 6: 64%, Aug 6: 64%, Aug 6: 65%, Aug 6: 65%, Aug 6: 64%, Aug 6: 64%, Aug 6: 64%, Aug 6: 64%, Aug 6: 64%, Aug 6: 65%, Aug 6: 65%, Aug 6: 65%, Aug 6: 65%, Aug 6: 65%, Aug 6: 64%, Aug 6: 65%, Aug 9: 63%, Aug 9: 63%, Aug 9: 63%, Aug 9: 64%, Aug 9: 63%, Aug 9: 63%, Aug 9: 64%, Aug 9: 63%, Aug 9: 63%, Aug 9: 64%, Aug 9: 64%, Aug 9: 64%, Aug 10: 64%, Aug 10: 64%, Aug 10: 63%, Aug 10: 64%, Aug 10: 64%, Aug 10: 64%, Aug 10: 64%, Aug 10: 64%, Aug 10: 64%, Aug 10: 63%, Aug 10: 63%, Aug 10: 64%, Aug 10: 64%, Aug 10: 63%, Aug 10: 63%, Aug 10: 64%, Aug 10: 64%, Aug 10: 64%, Aug 10: 63%, Aug 10: 63%, Aug 10: 63%, Aug 10: 63%, Aug 10: 63%, Aug 10: 64%, Aug 10: 63%, Aug 10: 63%, Aug 10: 63%, Aug 10: 64%, Aug 15: 63%, Aug 15: 64%, Now: 64%
The WeeBet Angle
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election on Polymarket
64% — Drifting on a well-backed number.
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FAQ
- What are the odds of Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election??
- As of August 2026, the prediction market on Polymarket implies a 64% probability of YES.
- Where can I trade Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election??
- This contract trades on Polymarket. WeeBet links you to the source platform — we don't accept wagers.
- When does this market resolve?
- It is scheduled to resolve on October 4, 2026, at which point YES or NO pays out based on the platform's resolution source.