When does this market resolve

It is scheduled to resolve on October 5, 2026, at which point YES or NO pays out based on the platform's resolution source.

PolymarketPolitics

☆ Watch

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

As of September 2026, Polymarket traders give “Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?” a 41% chance of resolving YES, down 1 point over the past 24 hours. $116.3k has traded in the last 24 hours, and it resolves on October 5, 2026. A YES price of 41% is the market-implied probability the event happens — not a guarantee. Verify the full resolution criteria on Polymarket before trading.

YES

41¢

down 1 point 24h

59¢

24h volume

$116.3k

Open interest

—

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Polymarket

as of Sep 29, 2026

41%

−1 pts(24h)

0 pts(7d)

Flat

YES probability for "Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?" moved from 55% to 41% across 927 points. Current 41%. Data points: Sep 3: 55%, Sep 4: 54%, Sep 4: 54%, Sep 4: 55%, Sep 4: 55%, Sep 4: 55%, Sep 4: 54%, Sep 4: 55%, Sep 4: 55%, Sep 4: 55%, Sep 4: 55%, Sep 4: 55%, Sep 4: 55%, Sep 4: 55%, Sep 4: 55%, Sep 4: 55%, Sep 4: 55%, Sep 4: 54%, Sep 4: 54%, Sep 4: 54%, Sep 4: 54%, Sep 4: 55%, Sep 4: 55%, Sep 4: 54%, Sep 4: 55%, Sep 4: 55%, Sep 4: 56%, Sep 4: 56%, Sep 4: 56%, Sep 4: 56%, Sep 4: 56%, Sep 4: 55%, Sep 4: 56%, Sep 4: 55%, Sep 4: 56%, Sep 4: 55%, Sep 4: 56%, Sep 4: 55%, Sep 4: 56%, Sep 4: 56%, Sep 4: 55%, Sep 4: 55%, Sep 4: 55%, Sep 4: 55%, Sep 4: 56%, Sep 4: 56%, Sep 4: 56%, Sep 5: 56%, Sep 5: 56%, Sep 5: 56%, Sep 5: 56%, Sep 5: 56%, Sep 5: 56%, Sep 5: 55%, Sep 5: 56%, Sep 5: 56%, Sep 5: 56%, Sep 5: 55%, Sep 5: 56%, Sep 5: 56%, Sep 5: 56%, Sep 5: 55%, Sep 5: 55%, Sep 5: 55%, Sep 5: 55%, Sep 6: 55%, Sep 6: 55%, Sep 6: 55%, Sep 6: 55%, Sep 6: 55%, Sep 6: 55%, Sep 6: 55%, Sep 6: 55%, Sep 6: 55%, Sep 6: 55%, Sep 6: 56%, Sep 6: 56%, Sep 6: 56%, Sep 6: 56%, Sep 6: 56%, Sep 6: 56%, Sep 6: 56%, Sep 6: 55%, Sep 6: 55%, Sep 6: 55%, Sep 6: 55%, Sep 6: 56%, Sep 6: 56%, Sep 6: 56%, Sep 6: 56%, Sep 6: 56%, Sep 6: 55%, Sep 6: 57%, Sep 6: 57%, Sep 6: 57%, Sep 6: 58%, Sep 6: 58%, Sep 6: 58%, Sep 6: 58%, Sep 6: 58%, Sep 6: 57%, Sep 6: 57%, Sep 6: 57%, Sep 7: 57%, Sep 7: 58%, Sep 7: 58%, Sep 7: 58%, Sep 7: 58%, Sep 7: 58%, Sep 7: 57%, Sep 7: 57%, Sep 7: 58%, Sep 7: 58%, Sep 7: 56%, Sep 7: 56%, Sep 7: 56%, Sep 7: 57%, Sep 7: 57%, Sep 7: 57%, Sep 7: 57%, Sep 7: 57%, Sep 7: 56%, Sep 7: 56%, Sep 7: 57%, Sep 7: 56%, Sep 7: 57%, Sep 7: 57%, Sep 7: 57%, Sep 7: 57%, Sep 7: 57%, Sep 7: 57%, Sep 7: 56%, Sep 7: 57%, Sep 7: 58%, Sep 7: 58%, Sep 7: 58%, Sep 7: 58%, Sep 7: 58%, Sep 7: 59%, Sep 7: 59%, Sep 7: 59%, Sep 7: 58%, Sep 7: 58%, Sep 7: 59%, Sep 7: 59%, Sep 7: 59%, Sep 7: 59%, Sep 7: 58%, Sep 7: 59%, Sep 7: 59%, Sep 7: 59%, Sep 8: 59%, Sep 8: 59%, Sep 8: 59%, Sep 8: 59%, Sep 8: 56%, Sep 8: 56%, Sep 8: 56%, Sep 8: 56%, Sep 8: 55%, Sep 8: 54%, Sep 8: 54%, Sep 8: 54%, Sep 8: 55%, Sep 8: 55%, Sep 8: 57%, Sep 8: 57%, Sep 8: 56%, Sep 8: 57%, Sep 8: 55%, Sep 8: 56%, Sep 8: 55%, Sep 8: 55%, Sep 8: 55%, Sep 8: 55%, Sep 8: 55%, Sep 8: 56%, Sep 8: 54%, Sep 8: 55%, Sep 8: 56%, Sep 8: 56%, Sep 8: 54%, Sep 8: 54%, Sep 8: 54%, Sep 8: 53%, Sep 8: 53%, Sep 8: 53%, Sep 8: 52%, Sep 8: 53%, Sep 8: 53%, Sep 8: 53%, Sep 8: 53%, Sep 8: 53%, Sep 8: 53%, Sep 8: 53%, Sep 8: 52%, Sep 8: 52%, Sep 8: 52%, Sep 9: 52%, Sep 9: 53%, Sep 9: 52%, Sep 9: 52%, Sep 9: 52%, Sep 9: 53%, Sep 9: 53%, Sep 9: 52%, Sep 9: 53%, Sep 9: 53%, Sep 9: 53%, Sep 9: 53%, Sep 9: 53%, Sep 9: 52%, Sep 9: 52%, Sep 9: 52%, Sep 9: 52%, Sep 9: 52%, Sep 9: 53%, Sep 9: 52%, Sep 9: 52%, Sep 9: 53%, Sep 9: 53%, Sep 9: 52%, Sep 9: 53%, Sep 9: 53%, Sep 9: 53%, Sep 9: 52%, Sep 9: 52%, Sep 9: 53%, Sep 9: 53%, Sep 9: 53%, Sep 9: 52%, Sep 9: 52%, Sep 9: 52%, Sep 10: 53%, Sep 10: 52%, Sep 10: 52%, Sep 10: 52%, Sep 10: 52%, Sep 10: 51%, Sep 10: 51%, Sep 10: 51%, Sep 10: 51%, Sep 10: 51%, Sep 10: 51%, Sep 10: 51%, Sep 10: 51%, Sep 10: 52%, Sep 10: 52%, Sep 10: 52%, Sep 10: 52%, Sep 10: 52%, Sep 10: 51%, Sep 10: 51%, Sep 10: 51%, Sep 10: 51%, Sep 10: 51%, Sep 10: 51%, Sep 10: 51%, Sep 10: 47%, Sep 10: 48%, Sep 10: 47%, Sep 10: 48%, Sep 10: 46%, Sep 10: 45%, Sep 10: 45%, Sep 10: 45%, Sep 10: 44%, Sep 10: 43%, Sep 10: 42%, Sep 10: 44%, Sep 10: 43%, Sep 10: 43%, Sep 10: 44%, Sep 10: 43%, Sep 10: 44%, Sep 10: 44%, Sep 10: 44%, Sep 10: 44%, Sep 10: 44%, Sep 10: 44%, Sep 10: 44%, Sep 11: 46%, Sep 11: 46%, Sep 11: 45%, Sep 11: 46%, Sep 11: 47%, Sep 11: 47%, Sep 11: 47%, Sep 11: 47%, Sep 11: 46%, Sep 11: 47%, Sep 11: 47%, Sep 11: 47%, Sep 11: 42%, Sep 11: 40%, Sep 11: 40%, Sep 11: 43%, Sep 11: 44%, Sep 11: 44%, Sep 11: 44%, Sep 11: 45%, Sep 11: 44%, Sep 11: 44%, Sep 11: 43%, Sep 11: 44%, Sep 11: 43%, Sep 11: 44%, Sep 11: 44%, Sep 11: 45%, Sep 11: 44%, Sep 11: 45%, Sep 11: 44%, Sep 11: 45%, Sep 11: 42%, Sep 11: 43%, Sep 11: 43%, Sep 11: 42%, Sep 11: 43%, Sep 11: 43%, Sep 11: 43%, Sep 11: 44%, Sep 11: 45%, Sep 11: 45%, Sep 11: 44%, Sep 11: 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44%, Sep 27: 42%, Sep 27: 42%, Sep 27: 43%, Sep 27: 43%, Sep 27: 43%, Sep 28: 42%, Sep 28: 42%, Sep 28: 42%, Sep 28: 42%, Sep 28: 41%, Sep 28: 42%, Sep 28: 41%, Sep 28: 42%, Sep 28: 42%, Sep 28: 41%, Sep 28: 42%, Sep 28: 41%, Sep 28: 42%, Sep 28: 42%, Sep 28: 42%, Sep 28: 42%, Sep 28: 41%, Sep 28: 42%, Sep 28: 42%, Sep 28: 42%, Sep 29: 42%, Sep 29: 42%, Sep 29: 42%, Sep 29: 42%, Sep 29: 42%, Sep 29: 42%, Sep 29: 41%, Sep 29: 41%, Sep 29: 41%, Sep 29: 42%, Sep 29: 42%, Sep 29: 42%, Sep 29: 42%, Sep 29: 42%, Sep 29: 41%, Sep 29: 41%, Sep 29: 41%, Sep 29: 41%, Sep 29: 42%, Sep 29: 41%, Sep 29: 41%, Sep 29: 41%, Sep 29: 41%, Sep 29: 42%, Sep 29: 42%, Sep 29: 42%, Sep 29: 42%, Sep 29: 41%, Sep 29: 42%, Sep 29: 41%, Sep 29: 40%, Sep 29: 40%, Sep 29: 40%, Sep 29: 41%, Sep 29: 41%, Sep 29: 41%, Sep 29: 41%, Now: 41%

The WeeBet Angle

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election on Polymarket

41% — Drifting on a well-backed number.

41%

Implied

$116.3k

Liquidity

+0pts

7-day momentum

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FAQ

What are the odds of Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election??: As of September 2026, the prediction market on Polymarket implies a 41% probability of YES (down 1 point in the last 24h).
Where can I trade Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election??: This contract trades on Polymarket. WeeBet links you to the source platform — we don't accept wagers.
When does this market resolve?: It is scheduled to resolve on October 5, 2026, at which point YES or NO pays out based on the platform's resolution source.

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