What are the odds of Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

As of September 2026, the prediction market on Polymarket implies a 4% probability of YES.

Where can I trade Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

This contract trades on Polymarket. WeeBet links you to the source platform — we don't accept wagers.

When does this market resolve

It is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027, at which point YES or NO pays out based on the platform's resolution source.

PolymarketOther

☆ Watch

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

As of September 2026, Polymarket traders give “Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?” a 4% chance of resolving YES. $50.6k has traded in the last 24 hours, and it resolves on January 1, 2027. A YES price of 4% is the market-implied probability the event happens — not a guarantee. Verify the full resolution criteria on Polymarket before trading.

YES

4¢

96¢

24h volume

$50.6k

Open interest

—

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Polymarket

as of Sep 24, 2026

4%

0 pts(24h)

0 pts(7d)

Flat

YES probability for "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?" moved from 4% to 4% across 575 points. Current 4%. Data points: Aug 26: 4%, Aug 26: 4%, Aug 26: 4%, Aug 26: 4%, Aug 26: 4%, Aug 26: 4%, Aug 26: 4%, Aug 26: 4%, Aug 26: 4%, Aug 26: 4%, Aug 26: 4%, Aug 26: 4%, Aug 26: 4%, Aug 26: 4%, Aug 26: 4%, Aug 26: 4%, Aug 26: 4%, Aug 26: 4%, Aug 26: 4%, Aug 26: 4%, Aug 26: 4%, Aug 26: 4%, Aug 26: 4%, Aug 26: 4%, Aug 26: 4%, Aug 26: 4%, Aug 26: 4%, Aug 26: 4%, Aug 26: 4%, Aug 26: 4%, Aug 26: 4%, Aug 26: 4%, Aug 26: 4%, Aug 26: 4%, Aug 26: 4%, Aug 26: 4%, Aug 26: 4%, Aug 26: 4%, Aug 26: 4%, Aug 26: 4%, Aug 26: 4%, Aug 26: 4%, Aug 26: 4%, Aug 26: 4%, Aug 26: 4%, Aug 26: 4%, Aug 26: 4%, Aug 26: 4%, Aug 27: 4%, Aug 27: 4%, Aug 27: 4%, Aug 27: 4%, Aug 27: 4%, Aug 27: 4%, Aug 27: 4%, Aug 27: 4%, Aug 27: 4%, Aug 27: 4%, Aug 27: 4%, Aug 27: 4%, Aug 27: 4%, Aug 27: 4%, Aug 27: 4%, Aug 27: 4%, Aug 27: 4%, Aug 27: 4%, Aug 27: 4%, Aug 27: 4%, Aug 27: 4%, Aug 27: 4%, Aug 27: 4%, Aug 27: 4%, Aug 27: 4%, Aug 27: 4%, Aug 27: 4%, Aug 27: 4%, Aug 27: 4%, Aug 27: 4%, Aug 27: 4%, Aug 27: 4%, Aug 27: 4%, Aug 27: 4%, Aug 27: 4%, Aug 27: 4%, Sep 5: 4%, Sep 5: 4%, Sep 5: 4%, Sep 5: 4%, Sep 5: 4%, Sep 5: 4%, Sep 5: 4%, Sep 5: 4%, Sep 5: 4%, Sep 5: 4%, Sep 5: 4%, Sep 5: 4%, Sep 5: 4%, Sep 5: 4%, Sep 5: 4%, Sep 5: 4%, Sep 5: 4%, Sep 5: 4%, Sep 5: 4%, Sep 5: 4%, Sep 5: 4%, Sep 5: 4%, Sep 5: 4%, Sep 5: 4%, Sep 5: 4%, Sep 6: 4%, Sep 6: 4%, Sep 6: 4%, Sep 6: 4%, Sep 6: 4%, Sep 6: 4%, Sep 6: 4%, Sep 6: 4%, Sep 6: 4%, Sep 6: 4%, Sep 6: 4%, Sep 6: 4%, Sep 6: 4%, Sep 6: 4%, Sep 6: 4%, Sep 6: 4%, Sep 6: 4%, Sep 6: 4%, Sep 6: 4%, Sep 6: 4%, Sep 6: 4%, Sep 6: 4%, Sep 6: 4%, Sep 6: 4%, Sep 6: 4%, Sep 6: 4%, Sep 6: 4%, Sep 6: 4%, Sep 6: 4%, Sep 6: 4%, Sep 6: 4%, Sep 6: 4%, Sep 6: 4%, Sep 6: 4%, Sep 6: 4%, Sep 6: 4%, Sep 6: 4%, Sep 6: 4%, Sep 6: 4%, Sep 7: 4%, Sep 7: 4%, Sep 7: 4%, Sep 7: 4%, Sep 7: 4%, Sep 7: 4%, Sep 7: 4%, Sep 7: 4%, Sep 7: 4%, Sep 7: 4%, Sep 7: 4%, Sep 7: 4%, Sep 7: 4%, Sep 7: 4%, Sep 7: 4%, Sep 7: 4%, Sep 7: 4%, Sep 7: 4%, Sep 7: 4%, Sep 7: 4%, Sep 7: 4%, Sep 7: 4%, Sep 7: 4%, Sep 7: 4%, Sep 7: 4%, Sep 7: 4%, Sep 7: 4%, Sep 7: 4%, Sep 7: 4%, Sep 7: 4%, Sep 7: 4%, Sep 7: 4%, Sep 8: 4%, Sep 8: 4%, Sep 8: 4%, Sep 8: 4%, Sep 8: 4%, Sep 8: 4%, Sep 8: 4%, Sep 8: 4%, Sep 8: 4%, Sep 8: 4%, Sep 8: 4%, Sep 8: 4%, Sep 8: 4%, Sep 8: 4%, Sep 8: 4%, Sep 8: 4%, Sep 8: 4%, Sep 8: 4%, Sep 8: 4%, Sep 8: 4%, Sep 8: 4%, Sep 8: 4%, Sep 8: 4%, Sep 8: 4%, Sep 8: 4%, Sep 8: 4%, Sep 9: 4%, Sep 9: 4%, Sep 9: 4%, Sep 9: 4%, Sep 9: 4%, Sep 9: 4%, Sep 9: 4%, Sep 9: 4%, Sep 9: 4%, Sep 9: 4%, Sep 9: 4%, Sep 9: 4%, Sep 9: 4%, Sep 9: 4%, Sep 9: 4%, Sep 9: 4%, Sep 9: 4%, Sep 9: 4%, Sep 9: 4%, Sep 9: 4%, Sep 9: 4%, Sep 13: 4%, Sep 13: 4%, Sep 13: 4%, Sep 13: 4%, Sep 13: 4%, Sep 13: 4%, Sep 13: 4%, Sep 13: 4%, Sep 13: 4%, Sep 13: 4%, Sep 13: 4%, Sep 13: 4%, Sep 13: 4%, Sep 13: 4%, Sep 13: 4%, Sep 13: 4%, Sep 14: 4%, Sep 14: 4%, Sep 14: 5%, Sep 14: 5%, Sep 14: 5%, Sep 14: 5%, Sep 14: 5%, Sep 14: 5%, Sep 14: 5%, Sep 14: 5%, Sep 14: 5%, Sep 14: 5%, Sep 14: 5%, Sep 14: 5%, Sep 14: 5%, Sep 14: 5%, Sep 14: 5%, Sep 14: 5%, Sep 14: 5%, Sep 14: 5%, Sep 14: 5%, Sep 14: 5%, Sep 14: 5%, Sep 14: 5%, Sep 14: 5%, Sep 14: 5%, Sep 14: 4%, Sep 14: 4%, Sep 14: 4%, Sep 14: 4%, Sep 14: 4%, Sep 14: 4%, Sep 14: 4%, Sep 14: 4%, Sep 14: 4%, Sep 14: 4%, Sep 14: 4%, Sep 14: 4%, Sep 14: 4%, Sep 14: 4%, Sep 14: 4%, Sep 14: 4%, Sep 14: 4%, Sep 14: 4%, Sep 14: 4%, Sep 15: 4%, Sep 15: 4%, Sep 15: 4%, Sep 15: 4%, Sep 15: 4%, Sep 15: 4%, Sep 15: 4%, Sep 15: 4%, Sep 15: 4%, Sep 15: 4%, Sep 15: 4%, Sep 15: 4%, Sep 15: 4%, Sep 15: 4%, Sep 15: 4%, Sep 15: 4%, Sep 15: 4%, Sep 15: 4%, Sep 15: 4%, Sep 15: 4%, Sep 15: 4%, Sep 16: 4%, Sep 16: 4%, Sep 16: 4%, Sep 16: 4%, Sep 16: 4%, Sep 16: 4%, Sep 16: 4%, Sep 16: 4%, Sep 16: 4%, Sep 16: 4%, Sep 16: 4%, Sep 16: 4%, Sep 16: 4%, Sep 16: 4%, Sep 16: 4%, Sep 16: 4%, Sep 16: 4%, Sep 16: 4%, Sep 16: 4%, Sep 16: 4%, Sep 16: 4%, Sep 16: 4%, Sep 16: 4%, Sep 16: 4%, Sep 16: 4%, Sep 16: 4%, Sep 16: 4%, Sep 16: 4%, Sep 16: 4%, Sep 16: 4%, Sep 16: 4%, Sep 16: 4%, Sep 16: 4%, Sep 16: 4%, Sep 16: 4%, Sep 16: 4%, Sep 16: 4%, Sep 16: 4%, Sep 16: 4%, Sep 16: 4%, Sep 16: 4%, Sep 16: 4%, Sep 16: 4%, Sep 17: 4%, Sep 17: 4%, Sep 17: 4%, Sep 17: 4%, Sep 17: 4%, Sep 17: 4%, Sep 17: 4%, Sep 17: 4%, Sep 17: 4%, Sep 17: 4%, Sep 17: 4%, Sep 17: 4%, Sep 17: 4%, Sep 17: 4%, Sep 17: 4%, Sep 17: 4%, Sep 17: 4%, Sep 17: 4%, Sep 17: 4%, Sep 17: 4%, Sep 17: 4%, Sep 17: 4%, Sep 17: 4%, Sep 17: 4%, Sep 17: 4%, Sep 17: 4%, Sep 17: 4%, Sep 17: 4%, Sep 17: 4%, Sep 17: 4%, Sep 17: 4%, Sep 17: 4%, Sep 17: 4%, Sep 17: 4%, Sep 17: 4%, Sep 17: 4%, Sep 17: 6%, Sep 17: 4%, Sep 17: 4%, Sep 17: 4%, Sep 17: 4%, Sep 17: 4%, Sep 17: 4%, Sep 17: 4%, Sep 17: 4%, Sep 17: 4%, Sep 17: 5%, Sep 18: 5%, Sep 18: 5%, Sep 18: 5%, Sep 18: 5%, Sep 18: 5%, Sep 18: 4%, Sep 18: 4%, Sep 18: 4%, Sep 18: 4%, Sep 18: 4%, Sep 18: 4%, Sep 18: 4%, Sep 18: 4%, Sep 18: 4%, Sep 18: 4%, Sep 18: 4%, Sep 18: 4%, Sep 18: 4%, Sep 18: 4%, Sep 18: 4%, Sep 18: 4%, Sep 18: 4%, Sep 18: 4%, Sep 18: 4%, Sep 18: 4%, Sep 18: 4%, Sep 18: 4%, Sep 18: 4%, Sep 18: 4%, Sep 18: 4%, Sep 18: 4%, Sep 18: 4%, Sep 18: 4%, Sep 18: 4%, Sep 18: 4%, Sep 18: 4%, Sep 18: 4%, Sep 18: 4%, Sep 18: 4%, Sep 18: 4%, Sep 18: 4%, Sep 18: 4%, Sep 18: 4%, Sep 18: 4%, Sep 18: 4%, Sep 18: 4%, Sep 18: 4%, Sep 18: 4%, Sep 19: 4%, Sep 19: 4%, Sep 19: 4%, Sep 19: 4%, Sep 19: 4%, Sep 19: 4%, Sep 19: 4%, Sep 19: 4%, Sep 19: 4%, Sep 19: 4%, Sep 19: 4%, Sep 19: 4%, Sep 19: 4%, Sep 19: 4%, Sep 19: 4%, Sep 19: 4%, Sep 19: 4%, Sep 20: 4%, Sep 20: 4%, Sep 20: 4%, Sep 20: 4%, Sep 20: 4%, Sep 20: 4%, Sep 20: 4%, Sep 20: 4%, Sep 20: 5%, Sep 20: 5%, Sep 20: 5%, Sep 20: 5%, Sep 20: 5%, Sep 20: 5%, Sep 20: 5%, Sep 20: 5%, Sep 20: 5%, Sep 20: 5%, Sep 20: 5%, Sep 20: 4%, Sep 20: 4%, Sep 20: 4%, Sep 20: 4%, Sep 20: 4%, Sep 20: 4%, Sep 20: 4%, Sep 20: 4%, Sep 20: 4%, Sep 20: 4%, Sep 20: 4%, Sep 20: 4%, Sep 20: 4%, Sep 20: 4%, Sep 20: 4%, Sep 20: 4%, Sep 20: 4%, Sep 20: 4%, Sep 20: 4%, Sep 20: 4%, Sep 20: 4%, Sep 21: 4%, Sep 21: 4%, Sep 21: 4%, Sep 21: 4%, Sep 21: 4%, Sep 21: 4%, Sep 21: 4%, Sep 21: 4%, Sep 21: 4%, Sep 21: 4%, Sep 21: 4%, Sep 21: 4%, Sep 21: 4%, Sep 21: 4%, Sep 21: 4%, Sep 21: 4%, Sep 21: 4%, Sep 21: 4%, Sep 21: 4%, Sep 21: 4%, Sep 21: 4%, Sep 21: 4%, Sep 21: 4%, Sep 21: 4%, Sep 21: 4%, Sep 22: 4%, Sep 22: 4%, Sep 22: 4%, Sep 22: 4%, Sep 22: 4%, Sep 22: 4%, Sep 22: 4%, Sep 22: 4%, Sep 22: 4%, Sep 22: 4%, Sep 22: 4%, Sep 22: 4%, Sep 22: 4%, Sep 22: 4%, Sep 22: 4%, Sep 22: 4%, Sep 22: 4%, Sep 22: 4%, Sep 22: 4%, Sep 22: 4%, Sep 22: 4%, Sep 22: 4%, Sep 22: 4%, Sep 22: 4%, Sep 22: 4%, Sep 22: 4%, Sep 22: 4%, Sep 22: 4%, Sep 22: 4%, Sep 22: 4%, Sep 22: 4%, Sep 22: 4%, Sep 24: 4%, Sep 24: 4%, Sep 24: 4%, Sep 24: 4%, Sep 24: 4%, Sep 24: 4%, Sep 24: 4%, Sep 24: 4%, Sep 24: 4%, Sep 24: 4%, Sep 24: 4%, Sep 24: 4%, Sep 24: 4%, Now: 4%

The WeeBet Angle

China invade Taiwan by end of 2026 on Polymarket

4% — Drifting on a well-backed number.

Implied

$50.6k

Liquidity

+0pts

7-day momentum

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FAQ

What are the odds of Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026??: As of September 2026, the prediction market on Polymarket implies a 4% probability of YES.
Where can I trade Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026??: This contract trades on Polymarket. WeeBet links you to the source platform — we don't accept wagers.
When does this market resolve?: It is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027, at which point YES or NO pays out based on the platform's resolution source.

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