Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?
As of October 2026, Polymarket traders give “Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?” a 0% chance of resolving YES, down 60 points over the past 24 hours. $2.82M has traded in the last 24 hours, and it resolves on October 5, 2026. A YES price of 0% is the market-implied probability the event happens — not a guarantee. Verify the full resolution criteria on Polymarket before trading.
YES
0¢
down 60 points 24h
NO
100¢
24h volume
$2.82M
Open interest
—
Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?
PolymarketYES probability for "Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?" moved from 70% to 0% across 129 points. Current 0%. Data points: Oct 1: 70%, Oct 1: 70%, Oct 1: 70%, Oct 1: 70%, Oct 1: 70%, Oct 1: 70%, Oct 1: 70%, Oct 1: 70%, Oct 1: 70%, Oct 1: 70%, Oct 1: 72%, Oct 1: 72%, Oct 1: 72%, Oct 1: 72%, Oct 1: 69%, Oct 1: 70%, Oct 1: 70%, Oct 1: 70%, Oct 1: 70%, Oct 1: 70%, Oct 1: 71%, Oct 1: 71%, Oct 1: 71%, Oct 2: 77%, Oct 2: 77%, Oct 2: 75%, Oct 2: 74%, Oct 2: 75%, Oct 2: 75%, Oct 2: 76%, Oct 2: 76%, Oct 2: 76%, Oct 2: 76%, Oct 3: 76%, Oct 3: 76%, Oct 3: 75%, Oct 3: 75%, Oct 3: 75%, Oct 3: 75%, Oct 3: 75%, Oct 3: 75%, Oct 3: 75%, Oct 3: 75%, Oct 3: 75%, Oct 3: 75%, Oct 3: 75%, Oct 3: 75%, Oct 3: 75%, Oct 3: 75%, Oct 3: 75%, Oct 3: 75%, Oct 3: 75%, Oct 3: 75%, Oct 3: 75%, Oct 3: 74%, Oct 3: 74%, Oct 3: 74%, Oct 3: 75%, Oct 3: 75%, Oct 3: 75%, Oct 3: 74%, Oct 3: 74%, Oct 3: 74%, Oct 3: 74%, Oct 3: 74%, Oct 3: 74%, Oct 3: 74%, Oct 3: 74%, Oct 3: 74%, Oct 3: 74%, Oct 3: 73%, Oct 3: 60%, Oct 3: 64%, Oct 4: 61%, Oct 4: 62%, Oct 4: 61%, Oct 4: 62%, Oct 4: 63%, Oct 4: 62%, Oct 4: 63%, Oct 4: 63%, Oct 4: 61%, Oct 4: 60%, Oct 4: 62%, Oct 4: 62%, Oct 4: 62%, Oct 4: 61%, Oct 4: 61%, Oct 4: 61%, Oct 4: 61%, Oct 4: 61%, Oct 4: 61%, Oct 4: 61%, Oct 4: 61%, Oct 4: 61%, Oct 4: 62%, Oct 4: 62%, Oct 4: 63%, Oct 4: 63%, Oct 4: 61%, Oct 4: 64%, Oct 4: 65%, Oct 4: 65%, Oct 4: 66%, Oct 4: 67%, Oct 4: 66%, Oct 4: 69%, Oct 4: 71%, Oct 4: 73%, Oct 4: 71%, Oct 4: 70%, Oct 4: 67%, Oct 4: 67%, Oct 4: 59%, Oct 4: 16%, Oct 4: 11%, Oct 4: 5%, Oct 4: 1%, Oct 4: 1%, Oct 4: 0%, Oct 5: 0%, Oct 5: 0%, Oct 5: 0%, Oct 5: 0%, Oct 5: 0%, Oct 5: 0%, Oct 5: 0%, Oct 5: 0%, Now: 0%
The WeeBet read
How we calculate this →- Implied probability
- 0%
- 24h move
- -60 pts
- Liquidity
- Deep
- Fair value
- 0%
Moved down 60 points in 24 hours — the market is repricing on something. Worth checking what news drove it before the price settles.
This market is closed
Trading has ended on this question. The price history above is the record of how the market read it.
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FAQ
- What are the odds of Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election??
- As of October 2026, the prediction market on Polymarket implies a 0% probability of YES (down 60 points in the last 24h).
- Where can I trade Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election??
- This contract trades on Polymarket. WeeBet links you to the source platform — we don't accept wagers.
- When does this market resolve?
- It is scheduled to resolve on October 5, 2026, at which point YES or NO pays out based on the platform's resolution source.