US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
As of July 2026, Polymarket traders give “US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?” a 54% chance of resolving YES, up 14 points over the past 24 hours. $177.6k has traded in the last 24 hours, and it resolves on July 31, 2026. A YES price of 54% is the market-implied probability the event happens — not a guarantee. Verify the full resolution criteria on Polymarket before trading.
YES
54¢
up 14 points 24h
NO
46¢
24h volume
$177.6k
Open interest
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US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
PolymarketYES probability for "US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?" moved from 14% to 54% across 293 points. Current 54%. Data points: Jul 18: 14%, Jul 19: 15%, Jul 19: 15%, Jul 19: 15%, Jul 19: 15%, Jul 19: 15%, Jul 19: 15%, Jul 19: 15%, Jul 19: 15%, Jul 19: 15%, Jul 19: 15%, Jul 19: 15%, Jul 19: 15%, Jul 19: 15%, Jul 19: 15%, Jul 19: 16%, Jul 19: 16%, Jul 19: 17%, Jul 19: 17%, Jul 19: 17%, Jul 19: 17%, Jul 19: 17%, Jul 19: 17%, Jul 19: 17%, Jul 19: 15%, Jul 19: 16%, Jul 19: 16%, Jul 19: 16%, Jul 19: 16%, Jul 20: 16%, Jul 20: 16%, Jul 20: 16%, Jul 20: 16%, Jul 20: 16%, Jul 20: 16%, Jul 20: 16%, Jul 20: 16%, Jul 20: 16%, Jul 20: 16%, Jul 20: 16%, Jul 20: 15%, Jul 20: 15%, Jul 20: 15%, Jul 20: 19%, Jul 20: 21%, Jul 20: 21%, Jul 20: 24%, Jul 20: 24%, Jul 20: 24%, Jul 20: 24%, Jul 20: 24%, Jul 20: 31%, Jul 20: 27%, Jul 20: 27%, Jul 20: 27%, Jul 20: 20%, Jul 20: 18%, Jul 20: 20%, Jul 20: 20%, Jul 20: 22%, Jul 20: 25%, Jul 20: 20%, Jul 20: 20%, Jul 20: 21%, Jul 20: 21%, Jul 20: 19%, Jul 20: 19%, Jul 20: 18%, Jul 20: 20%, Jul 20: 20%, Jul 20: 18%, Jul 20: 18%, Jul 20: 17%, Jul 20: 17%, Jul 20: 17%, Jul 21: 17%, Jul 21: 17%, Jul 21: 17%, Jul 21: 18%, Jul 21: 18%, Jul 21: 18%, Jul 21: 20%, Jul 21: 20%, Jul 21: 20%, Jul 21: 20%, Jul 21: 20%, Jul 21: 20%, Jul 21: 20%, Jul 21: 19%, Jul 21: 19%, Jul 21: 19%, Jul 22: 16%, Jul 23: 16%, Jul 23: 15%, Jul 23: 14%, Jul 23: 12%, Jul 23: 14%, Jul 23: 14%, Jul 23: 14%, Jul 23: 15%, Jul 23: 15%, Jul 23: 16%, Jul 23: 16%, Jul 23: 16%, Jul 23: 16%, Jul 23: 16%, Jul 23: 15%, Jul 23: 15%, Jul 23: 15%, Jul 23: 16%, Jul 23: 16%, Jul 23: 15%, Jul 23: 15%, Jul 23: 15%, Jul 23: 15%, Jul 23: 18%, Jul 23: 17%, Jul 23: 17%, Jul 23: 17%, Jul 23: 16%, Jul 23: 16%, Jul 23: 16%, Jul 23: 17%, Jul 23: 17%, Jul 23: 17%, Jul 23: 17%, Jul 23: 16%, Jul 23: 16%, Jul 23: 16%, Jul 23: 16%, Jul 23: 16%, Jul 24: 16%, Jul 24: 16%, Jul 24: 16%, Jul 24: 15%, Jul 24: 15%, Jul 24: 15%, Jul 24: 16%, Jul 24: 16%, Jul 24: 16%, Jul 24: 16%, Jul 24: 16%, Jul 24: 16%, Jul 24: 16%, Jul 24: 16%, Jul 24: 16%, Jul 24: 16%, Jul 24: 16%, Jul 24: 16%, Jul 24: 14%, Jul 24: 15%, Jul 24: 15%, Jul 24: 15%, Jul 24: 15%, Jul 24: 15%, Jul 24: 15%, Jul 24: 15%, Jul 24: 15%, Jul 24: 15%, Jul 24: 14%, Jul 24: 14%, Jul 24: 14%, Jul 24: 14%, Jul 24: 14%, Jul 24: 16%, Jul 24: 16%, Jul 24: 16%, Jul 24: 16%, Jul 24: 16%, Jul 24: 16%, Jul 24: 16%, Jul 24: 15%, Jul 24: 16%, Jul 24: 16%, Jul 24: 16%, Jul 24: 16%, Jul 24: 16%, Jul 24: 16%, Jul 24: 16%, Jul 25: 15%, Jul 25: 15%, Jul 25: 16%, Jul 25: 16%, Jul 25: 17%, Jul 25: 18%, Jul 25: 18%, Jul 25: 17%, Jul 25: 18%, Jul 25: 18%, Jul 25: 18%, Jul 25: 18%, Jul 25: 18%, Jul 25: 21%, Jul 25: 22%, Jul 25: 22%, Jul 25: 24%, Jul 25: 24%, Jul 25: 24%, Jul 25: 25%, Jul 25: 26%, Jul 25: 29%, Jul 25: 31%, Jul 25: 30%, Jul 25: 29%, Jul 25: 28%, Jul 25: 28%, Jul 25: 26%, Jul 25: 28%, Jul 25: 27%, Jul 25: 30%, Jul 25: 32%, Jul 25: 31%, Jul 25: 37%, Jul 25: 36%, Jul 25: 33%, Jul 25: 35%, Jul 25: 35%, Jul 25: 38%, Jul 25: 38%, Jul 25: 34%, Jul 25: 37%, Jul 25: 37%, Jul 25: 40%, Jul 25: 41%, Jul 26: 41%, Jul 26: 41%, Jul 26: 38%, Jul 26: 38%, Jul 26: 38%, Jul 26: 37%, Jul 26: 38%, Jul 26: 38%, Jul 26: 40%, Jul 26: 40%, Jul 26: 40%, Jul 26: 40%, Jul 26: 40%, Jul 26: 40%, Jul 26: 40%, Jul 26: 40%, Jul 26: 39%, Jul 26: 40%, Jul 26: 41%, Jul 26: 41%, Jul 26: 42%, Jul 26: 40%, Jul 26: 43%, Jul 26: 44%, Jul 26: 46%, Jul 26: 49%, Jul 26: 49%, Jul 26: 50%, Jul 26: 49%, Jul 26: 48%, Jul 26: 46%, Jul 26: 48%, Jul 26: 47%, Jul 26: 48%, Jul 26: 51%, Jul 26: 56%, Jul 26: 56%, Jul 26: 58%, Jul 26: 57%, Jul 26: 57%, Jul 26: 56%, Jul 26: 55%, Jul 26: 56%, Jul 26: 56%, Jul 26: 53%, Jul 26: 54%, Jul 26: 55%, Jul 26: 55%, Jul 27: 53%, Jul 27: 55%, Jul 27: 55%, Jul 27: 55%, Jul 27: 55%, Jul 27: 55%, Jul 27: 59%, Jul 27: 57%, Jul 27: 58%, Jul 27: 59%, Jul 27: 57%, Jul 27: 57%, Jul 27: 58%, Jul 27: 58%, Jul 27: 54%, Jul 27: 57%, Jul 27: 54%, Jul 27: 54%, Jul 27: 54%, Jul 27: 54%, Now: 54%
The WeeBet Angle
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31 on Polymarket
54% — Major repricing — something changed; check the news.
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FAQ
- What are the odds of US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31??
- As of July 2026, the prediction market on Polymarket implies a 54% probability of YES (up 14 points in the last 24h).
- Where can I trade US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31??
- This contract trades on Polymarket. WeeBet links you to the source platform — we don't accept wagers.
- When does this market resolve?
- It is scheduled to resolve on July 31, 2026, at which point YES or NO pays out based on the platform's resolution source.