What are the odds of Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

As of October 2026, the prediction market on Polymarket implies a 18% probability of YES.

Where can I trade Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

This contract trades on Polymarket. WeeBet links you to the source platform — we don't accept wagers.

When does this market resolve

It is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027, at which point YES or NO pays out based on the platform's resolution source.

PolymarketWorld

☆ Watch

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

As of October 2026, Polymarket traders give “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?” a 18% chance of resolving YES. $123.7k has traded in the last 24 hours, and it resolves on January 1, 2027. A YES price of 18% is the market-implied probability the event happens — not a guarantee. Verify the full resolution criteria on Polymarket before trading.

YES

18¢

82¢

24h volume

$123.7k

Open interest

—

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Polymarket

as of Oct 9, 2026

18%

−2 pts(7d)

Slight downtick

YES probability for "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?" moved from 19% to 18% across 1012 points. Current 18%. Data points: Sep 9: 19%, Sep 9: 19%, Sep 9: 20%, Sep 9: 19%, Sep 9: 19%, Sep 9: 19%, Sep 9: 20%, Sep 9: 20%, Sep 9: 20%, Sep 9: 20%, Sep 9: 21%, Sep 9: 21%, Sep 9: 21%, Sep 9: 20%, Sep 9: 21%, Sep 9: 20%, Sep 9: 19%, Sep 9: 20%, Sep 9: 19%, Sep 9: 20%, Sep 9: 20%, Sep 9: 20%, Sep 9: 20%, Sep 9: 19%, Sep 9: 20%, Sep 9: 20%, Sep 9: 18%, Sep 9: 18%, Sep 9: 18%, Sep 9: 19%, Sep 9: 19%, Sep 9: 19%, Sep 9: 19%, Sep 9: 19%, Sep 9: 19%, Sep 9: 19%, Sep 10: 19%, Sep 10: 19%, Sep 10: 19%, Sep 10: 18%, Sep 10: 18%, Sep 10: 18%, Sep 10: 18%, Sep 10: 18%, Sep 10: 18%, Sep 10: 18%, Sep 10: 18%, Sep 10: 18%, Sep 10: 18%, Sep 10: 18%, Sep 10: 18%, Sep 10: 18%, Sep 10: 18%, Sep 10: 18%, Sep 10: 18%, Sep 10: 18%, Sep 10: 16%, Sep 10: 16%, Sep 10: 14%, Sep 10: 14%, Sep 10: 14%, Sep 10: 16%, Sep 10: 15%, Sep 10: 17%, Sep 10: 16%, Sep 10: 15%, Sep 10: 16%, Sep 10: 17%, Sep 10: 17%, Sep 10: 17%, Sep 10: 17%, Sep 10: 17%, Sep 10: 17%, Sep 10: 16%, Sep 10: 16%, Sep 10: 16%, Sep 10: 16%, Sep 10: 16%, Sep 10: 16%, Sep 10: 16%, Sep 10: 15%, Sep 10: 15%, Sep 10: 15%, Sep 10: 16%, Sep 11: 16%, Sep 11: 16%, Sep 11: 16%, Sep 11: 17%, Sep 11: 17%, Sep 11: 17%, Sep 11: 15%, Sep 11: 15%, Sep 11: 15%, Sep 11: 16%, Sep 11: 17%, Sep 11: 17%, Sep 11: 17%, Sep 11: 16%, Sep 11: 18%, Sep 11: 18%, Sep 11: 19%, Sep 11: 19%, Sep 11: 19%, Sep 11: 19%, Sep 11: 19%, Sep 11: 19%, Sep 11: 19%, Sep 11: 19%, Sep 11: 19%, Sep 11: 18%, Sep 11: 18%, Sep 11: 18%, Sep 11: 19%, Sep 11: 19%, Sep 11: 19%, Sep 11: 19%, Sep 11: 19%, Sep 11: 19%, Sep 11: 19%, Sep 11: 19%, Sep 11: 18%, Sep 11: 18%, Sep 11: 18%, Sep 11: 19%, Sep 11: 19%, Sep 11: 19%, Sep 11: 19%, Sep 11: 19%, Sep 11: 19%, Sep 11: 20%, Sep 11: 20%, Sep 11: 20%, Sep 12: 20%, Sep 12: 20%, Sep 12: 20%, Sep 12: 20%, Sep 12: 20%, Sep 12: 20%, Sep 12: 18%, Sep 12: 19%, Sep 12: 19%, Sep 12: 19%, Sep 12: 19%, Sep 12: 19%, Sep 12: 19%, Sep 12: 19%, Sep 12: 19%, Sep 12: 19%, Sep 12: 19%, Sep 12: 19%, Sep 12: 19%, Sep 12: 20%, Sep 12: 20%, Sep 12: 20%, Sep 12: 20%, Sep 12: 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17%, Sep 15: 18%, Sep 16: 18%, Sep 16: 18%, Sep 16: 18%, Sep 16: 18%, Sep 16: 18%, Sep 16: 18%, Sep 16: 18%, Sep 16: 18%, Sep 16: 18%, Sep 16: 18%, Sep 16: 18%, Sep 16: 18%, Sep 16: 18%, Sep 16: 18%, Sep 16: 18%, Sep 16: 17%, Sep 16: 17%, Sep 16: 17%, Sep 16: 17%, Sep 16: 17%, Sep 16: 18%, Sep 16: 18%, Sep 16: 18%, Sep 16: 18%, Sep 16: 17%, Sep 16: 17%, Sep 16: 17%, Sep 20: 18%, Sep 20: 18%, Sep 20: 18%, Sep 21: 18%, Sep 21: 18%, Sep 21: 18%, Sep 21: 18%, Sep 21: 18%, Sep 21: 18%, Sep 21: 19%, Sep 21: 19%, Sep 21: 19%, Sep 21: 19%, Sep 21: 19%, Sep 21: 19%, Sep 21: 19%, Sep 21: 19%, Sep 21: 19%, Sep 21: 19%, Sep 21: 19%, Sep 21: 19%, Sep 21: 19%, Sep 21: 19%, Sep 21: 19%, Sep 21: 19%, Sep 21: 19%, Sep 21: 20%, Sep 21: 20%, Sep 21: 20%, Sep 21: 20%, Sep 21: 20%, Sep 21: 20%, Sep 21: 19%, Sep 21: 19%, Sep 21: 19%, Sep 21: 19%, Sep 21: 19%, Sep 21: 19%, Sep 21: 20%, Sep 21: 19%, Sep 21: 20%, Sep 21: 20%, Sep 21: 20%, Sep 21: 20%, Sep 21: 19%, Sep 21: 19%, Sep 21: 19%, Sep 21: 19%, Sep 21: 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The WeeBet Angle

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31 on Polymarket

18% — Drifting on a well-backed number.

18%

Implied

$123.7k

Liquidity

−2pts

7-day momentum

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FAQ

What are the odds of Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31??: As of October 2026, the prediction market on Polymarket implies a 18% probability of YES.
Where can I trade Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31??: This contract trades on Polymarket. WeeBet links you to the source platform — we don't accept wagers.
When does this market resolve?: It is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027, at which point YES or NO pays out based on the platform's resolution source.

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