Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
As of October 2026, Polymarket traders give “Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?” a 96% chance of resolving YES, up 67 points over the past 24 hours. $537.7k has traded in the last 24 hours, and it resolves on October 5, 2026. A YES price of 96% is the market-implied probability the event happens — not a guarantee. Verify the full resolution criteria on Polymarket before trading.
YES
96¢
up 67 points 24h
NO
5¢
24h volume
$537.7k
Open interest
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Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
PolymarketYES probability for "Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?" moved from 23% to 96% across 134 points. Current 96%. Data points: Sep 25: 23%, Sep 25: 24%, Sep 25: 25%, Sep 25: 25%, Sep 25: 25%, Sep 25: 25%, Sep 25: 25%, Sep 25: 25%, Sep 25: 25%, Sep 25: 25%, Sep 25: 24%, Sep 25: 24%, Sep 25: 24%, Sep 25: 23%, Sep 25: 23%, Sep 25: 24%, Sep 25: 24%, Sep 25: 24%, Sep 25: 24%, Sep 25: 24%, Sep 25: 24%, Sep 25: 24%, Sep 25: 24%, Sep 25: 25%, Sep 25: 25%, Sep 25: 26%, Sep 25: 25%, Oct 1: 29%, Oct 1: 29%, Oct 1: 29%, Oct 1: 29%, Oct 1: 29%, Oct 1: 29%, Oct 1: 29%, Oct 1: 29%, Oct 1: 29%, Oct 1: 29%, Oct 1: 29%, Oct 1: 29%, Oct 1: 29%, Oct 1: 30%, Oct 1: 30%, Oct 1: 30%, Oct 2: 24%, Oct 2: 24%, Oct 2: 25%, Oct 2: 25%, Oct 2: 26%, Oct 2: 25%, Oct 2: 26%, Oct 2: 26%, Oct 2: 26%, Oct 3: 26%, Oct 3: 25%, Oct 3: 25%, Oct 3: 26%, Oct 3: 26%, Oct 3: 26%, Oct 3: 27%, Oct 3: 27%, Oct 3: 27%, Oct 3: 27%, Oct 3: 26%, Oct 3: 26%, Oct 3: 26%, Oct 3: 26%, Oct 3: 26%, Oct 3: 26%, Oct 3: 26%, Oct 3: 25%, Oct 3: 25%, Oct 3: 25%, Oct 3: 26%, Oct 3: 26%, Oct 3: 27%, Oct 3: 27%, Oct 3: 26%, Oct 3: 26%, Oct 3: 28%, Oct 3: 28%, Oct 3: 28%, Oct 3: 28%, Oct 3: 28%, Oct 3: 27%, Oct 3: 27%, Oct 3: 29%, Oct 3: 28%, Oct 3: 42%, Oct 3: 35%, Oct 4: 39%, Oct 4: 39%, Oct 4: 39%, Oct 4: 40%, Oct 4: 38%, Oct 4: 35%, Oct 4: 33%, Oct 4: 39%, Oct 4: 40%, Oct 4: 40%, Oct 4: 40%, Oct 4: 40%, Oct 4: 40%, Oct 4: 38%, Oct 4: 40%, Oct 4: 39%, Oct 4: 39%, Oct 4: 39%, Oct 4: 38%, Oct 4: 39%, Oct 4: 38%, Oct 4: 38%, Oct 4: 38%, Oct 4: 38%, Oct 4: 37%, Oct 4: 37%, Oct 4: 37%, Oct 4: 37%, Oct 4: 36%, Oct 4: 34%, Oct 4: 35%, Oct 4: 36%, Oct 4: 34%, Oct 4: 35%, Oct 4: 30%, Oct 4: 28%, Oct 4: 30%, Oct 4: 30%, Oct 4: 34%, Oct 4: 34%, Oct 4: 42%, Oct 4: 85%, Oct 4: 89%, Oct 4: 96%, Now: 96%
The WeeBet Angle
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election on Polymarket
96% — Major repricing — something changed; check the news.
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FAQ
- What are the odds of Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election??
- As of October 2026, the prediction market on Polymarket implies a 96% probability of YES (up 67 points in the last 24h).
- Where can I trade Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election??
- This contract trades on Polymarket. WeeBet links you to the source platform — we don't accept wagers.
- When does this market resolve?
- It is scheduled to resolve on October 5, 2026, at which point YES or NO pays out based on the platform's resolution source.