2026 US Open Day 7: Alcaraz Surges, Zverev Tests Today

2026 US Open — Day 7 Briefing: Third Round in Full Swing at Flushing Meadows

September 5, 2026 | Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, Queens, New York

Friday September 4 delivered the kind of statement tennis that tightens futures markets overnight.

Carlos Alcaraz dismantled Wu Yibing 6-3, 6-4, 6-1 to advance to the Round of 16

,

the defending champion advancing in straight sets despite uneven forehand consistency and a first-serve percentage that dipped through the match.

On the women's side,

Aryna Sabalenka defeated Kamilla Rakhimova in the third round, keeping her quest for a third consecutive US Open title alive.

Saturday's slate — today, September 5 — is headlined by top seed Alexander Zverev against Alejandro Tabilo on Arthur Ashe, Coco Gauff's third-round clash with Cristina Bucsa, and Iga Swiatek taking on Marie Bouzkova on the Grandstand.

Alcaraz's title win probability has surged to 53%, up six points from Thursday and now 30 points clear of Zverev at 23%.

Live odds and event contracts for every remaining match — men's and women's draws — are updated in real time at WeeBet's US Open hub: /events/us-open-tennis-2026. Bet responsibly. If gambling is affecting you or someone you know, call the National Problem Gambling Helpline at 1-800-522-4700.

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Tournament Context

The 2026 US Open is the 146th edition of tennis's US Open, being held on the outdoor hard courts at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center in New York City.

Carlos Alcaraz and Aryna Sabalenka are the men's and women's singles defending champions, respectively.

Main-draw action runs from August 30 through September 13.

The 2026 US Open offered a record $108 million in total player compensation, the largest package in tennis history and an increase of 21% from 2025.

The men's and women's singles champions each receive $5,500,000 — a 10% increase from the $5,000,000 awarded in 2025.

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Friday September 4: Key Results

The American charge at the US Open picked up considerable momentum Friday night, with Ben Shelton, Tommy Paul, and Frances Tiafoe each delivering important victories, keeping three of the country's most recognizable men's contenders moving forward in New York.

Daniil Medvedev (7) beat Arthur Rinderknech 6-4, 6-4, 6-4; Frances Tiafoe (11) beat Valentin Vacherot 6-4, 6-2, 6-4; Ben Shelton (8) beat Denis Shapovalov 7-6(3), 6-7(5), 6-3, 6-4; and Tommy Paul (20) beat Alexander Bublik (15) 6-4, 3-6, 6-7(4), 6-1, 6-3.

Sabalenka opened up her match in dominant fashion, winning her first 16 points on first serve, before Rakhimova settled into a rhythm in the second set, forcing Sabalenka to break at 4-4 to serve out the match.

The world No. 1 played trademark aggressive tennis, hitting 29 winners along with 10 aces.

Also on the women's side,

Jessica Pegula narrowly escaped a three-set thriller against Leylah Fernandez to move on to the Round of 16 for the fifth straight year.

And in a notable result,

Emma Navarro (26) upset Karolina Muchova (7) 6-3, 7-5.

Unseeded Stefanos Tsitsipas also made his presence felt:

Tsitsipas beat Jiří Lehečka (18) 2-6, 6-1, 7-6(3), 6-1

— a result that underlines the draw's depth in the men's bottom half.

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Odds Movement: How the Markets Shifted After Round 2

The men's title markets have moved dramatically since the draw began.

Novak Djokovic was ousted in the opening round of the tournament for the first time in his storied career, after entering with third-best +700 odds to win it all.

Arthur Fils and Rafael Jodar — tied for fifth-best tournament winner odds at 12-1 and both popular picks among the betting public — were also eliminated in the first round.

Alcaraz was a 27-cent contract on Kalshi on the eve of the tournament. Five days later, with two clean wins of his own and four seeds gone from the draw including Djokovic, the same contract asked 43 cents.

As of September 5,

Alcaraz has tightened his grip on the 2026 US Open odds, surging to 53% at DraftKings Predictions and opening up a massive gap over the rest of the men's field.

On the women's side the picture is more stable.

The women's market has continued to move much less dramatically. Two-time defending champion Aryna Sabalenka has edged up to 26%, Coco Gauff remains at 21%, and Iga Swiatek has slipped one point to 16%.

Jessica Pegula is unchanged at 10%, while Elena Rybakina has moved back into the top five at 7%.

Track every contract move live at WeeBet's US Open hub — markets reprice after every completed match.

Probability figures via DraftKings Predictions as of September 4–5, 2026. Event contracts on Kalshi prices noted separately. Always shop markets for the best position — WeeBet's hub aggregates live lines.

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Alcaraz: The Injury Caveat the Market Is Ignoring

Alcaraz was far from his best against Wu Yibing, struggling to stay consistent on his forehand and find his first serve — not a total surprise considering he is coming off a four-month layoff with a wrist injury.

The market has priced the Spaniard as if that injury is fully resolved. The scoreline (6-3, 6-4, 6-1) flatters; a deeper opponent in the Round of 16 will test whether the wrist holds under sustained rally pressure.

An AI panel following the draw read the same results and would not follow the crowd's price — eight models agreed Alcaraz is the favorite, but not one of them would pay 53 cents.

That gap between crowd sentiment and model consensus is the most interesting line in the men's event contracts right now.

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Today's Saturday September 5 Card: What to Watch

Arthur Ashe Stadium's evening programme opens with Taylor Fritz (9) vs. Francisco Cerundolo (24), followed by Cristina Bucsa vs. Coco Gauff (4), then Iva Jovic (14) vs. Alexandra Eala (17), and closes with Alexander Zverev (1) vs. Alejandro Tabilo (25).

Zverev vs. Tabilo (Ashe, ~1:00am ET): The world No. 1 has been quietly efficient but has yet to face a grinder of Tabilo's calibre. Zverev enters with 23% title probability and has the most to gain from a dominant performance. A laboured win could see his event contract edge down further against Alcaraz's surging position.

Gauff vs. Bucsa (Ashe, evening):

Bucsa beat Himeno Sakatsume in a gruelling three-set encounter 7-6, 6-7, 7-6

to get here and will arrive with confidence. Gauff at 21% title probability needs a clean, authoritative statement win to close the gap on Sabalenka in the women's market.

Swiatek vs. Bouzkova (Grandstand):

Swiatek has slipped to 16%

after an unconvincing second round. A Bouzkova upset here would dramatically reshape the women's draw and send Sabalenka's contract sharply higher.

On Louis Armstrong: Anastasia Potapova (24) meets Amanda Anisimova (10), Naomi Osaka (13) faces Elise Mertens (23), and Jakub Mensik (17) takes on Learner Tien (14).

The Mensik–Tien clash is the most underrated men's match of the day — both are Grand Slam debutants at this stage and either could be a fourth-round spoiler.

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Women's Draw: Sabalenka's Path Gets Clearer

Aryna Sabalenka is looking to win her third straight US Open title.

All four of Sabalenka's Grand Slam titles have come on hard courts, and this is the preferred surface for the top seed in women's tennis.

Muchova's exit, engineered by Navarro on Friday, removes one of the handful of players physically capable of out-hitting the Belarusian in a baseline exchange.

Sabalenka has appeared in each of the last three US Open finals, winning the last two tournaments

— a pattern of consistency that explains why her market has not moved as aggressively as Alcaraz's despite comparable dominance through two rounds.

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American Men: A Resurgent Storyline

Ben Shelton, Tommy Paul, and Frances Tiafoe each delivered important victories, keeping three of the country's most recognizable men's contenders moving forward. Their wins added energy to a tournament already leaning into the possibility of a deep American run. Shelton in particular continues to look comfortable under the brightest lights, while Paul and Tiafoe showed resolve against dangerous opponents.

Ben Shelton holds steady at 13% and Taylor Fritz has climbed three points to 12%

— collectively, American male contenders now account for roughly 25% of the total men's title probability.

No American man has won the US Open since Andy Roddick in 2003.

That drought makes Shelton, Fritz, Paul, and Tiafoe among the most bet-on storylines on WeeBet's hub. Track their individual match markets at /events/us-open-tennis-2026. Please gamble responsibly.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who is the current favourite to win the 2026 US Open men's singles?

As of September 5, 2026, Carlos Alcaraz leads the men's title market at 53% win probability on DraftKings Predictions, up six points from Thursday and 30 points clear of second-placed Alexander Zverev at 23%.

Alcaraz is also the top contract on Kalshi. Live positions are updated on WeeBet's event hub at /events/us-open-tennis-2026.

Who are the top women's title favourites as of September 5, 2026?

Aryna Sabalenka leads the women's market at 26% probability, followed by Coco Gauff at 21% and Iga Swiatek at 16%, with Jessica Pegula at 10% and Elena Rybakina re-entering the top five at 7%.

What is the prize money for winning the 2026 US Open?

The men's and women's singles champions each receive $5,500,000 — a 10% increase from the $5,000,000 awarded in 2025.

Total player compensation for 2026 stands at a record $108 million, the largest package in tennis history.

Where can I track live 2026 US Open odds and place event contracts?

WeeBet runs a live odds and markets hub at /events/us-open-tennis-2026, aggregating real-time event contract prices across the men's and women's draws, plus individual match markets and prop positions. Markets reprice within minutes of each completed set. Gambling should be entertaining. Bet only what you can afford to lose. For support, visit ncpgambling.org or call 1-800-522-4700.

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