2026 US Open Day 6: Alcaraz Surges, Draw Shaken
Zverev survives five sets, Auger-Aliassime exits, and Alcaraz hits 53% title probability heading into R3.
Day 6 Briefing: Third Round Opens at Flushing Meadows
September 4, 2026 | USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, New York
Thursday's play at the 2026 US Open delivered two marquee results that reshaped the men's draw and sent at least one market-moving price on the move.
Top seed Alexander Zverev and American Taylor Fritz both advanced to the third round — Zverev surviving Quentin Halys in five sets while Fritz dispatched Mattia Bellucci in a dominant display.
The bigger stories came via upset:
Karen Khachanov took out third seed Felix Auger-Aliassime, and Botic van de Zandschulp stunned sixth seed Alex de Minaur.
On the women's side,
defending champion Aryna Sabalenka defeated Kamilla Rakhimova 6-3, 6-4
— clinical, controlled, title-form. Today, Friday September 4, is Day 6 and the third round kicks into full gear.
Arthur Ashe Stadium hosts a North American duel between No. 3 seed Jessica Pegula and Canadian Leylah Fernandez, followed by Carlos Alcaraz vs. Wu Yibing as the defending champion continues his comeback from an April wrist injury.
Ben Shelton's third-round showdown with Denis Shapovalov is also on the card.
Live odds for all matches update in real time at WeeBet's US Open hub — /events/us-open-tennis-2026.
- Alcaraz win probability0%DK Predictions, Sept 4
- Sabalenka win probability0%DK Predictions, Sept 4
- Coco Gauff0%Women's R3
- Zverev0%Men's R3
- Ben Shelton0%Home hope
- Prize money pool$0MTournament record
Yesterday's Results: Upsets, Five-Set Epics, and a Sabalenka Statement
Thursday September 3 delivered exactly the kind of Day 5 chaos that resets a Grand Slam draw.
Zverev's survival act against Halys went to five sets
— not the seamless progression markets had priced in for the French Open champion.
Zverev, seeded No. 1 at a Grand Slam for the first time in the absence of Jannik Sinner (knee), was expected to cruise deep into the second week.
A grinding five-setter this early is a fitness flag worth tracking.
The Khachanov-Auger-Aliassime result carries the most structural weight.
Khachanov ousted third seed Auger-Aliassime
, removing one of the draw's highest-ceiling players from the equation. Van de Zandschulp's dismissal of De Minaur — the sixth seed — clears another danger player from the top half of the men's bracket.
Through less than two rounds, the men's side has already experienced a handful of big upsets, headlined by Novak Djokovic's opening-round exit — the first time in his career he fell in the first round here.
The cumulative effect has concentrated value at the top of the surviving draw.
On the women's side, Sabalenka's 6-3, 6-4 win over Rakhimova was the performance of the session — minimal fuss, no dropped serve runs, clean ball-striking.
Sabalenka is seeking to become the third woman in the Open Era (since 1968) to three-peat at the US Open.
Title Markets: Alcaraz Surges, Women's Draw Holds Steady
The men's market moved decisively as of September 4.
Carlos Alcaraz has strengthened his position as the US Open favorite, surging from 47% to 53% after a four-set victory over Jaime Faria on Wednesday.
That six-point single-day jump is the sharpest move seen on the men's side so far.
Alcaraz now sits 30 points clear of Zverev, who remains unchanged at 23%.
Ben Shelton holds steady at 13%, while Taylor Fritz has climbed three points to 12%.
Daniil Medvedev holds at 8%, with Flavio Cobolli, Jakub Mensik, Frances Tiafoe, and Learner Tien each at 4%.
The women's market is comparatively quiet.
The women's market continues to move much less dramatically: Sabalenka sits at 26%, Coco Gauff remains at 21%, Iga Swiatek has slipped to 16%, Jessica Pegula is unchanged at 10%, and Elena Rybakina has moved back into the top five at 7%.
Track every live price movement at WeeBet — /events/us-open-tennis-2026. Markets update point-by-point across all courts.
Men's Title Market — As of September 4, 2026
| Player | Win Probability | 24h Move |
|---|---|---|
| Carlos Alcaraz | 53% | +6pts |
| Alexander Zverev | 23% | flat |
| Ben Shelton | 13% | flat |
| Taylor Fritz | 12% | +3pts |
| Daniil Medvedev | 8% | flat |
Today's Key Matches: September 4 Order of Play
Arthur Ashe Stadium
Pegula vs. Fernandez (Women's R3):
Arthur Ashe Stadium opens with a North American duel — No. 3 seed Jessica Pegula vs. Canadian US Open finalist Leylah Fernandez.
Pegula enters at 10% title probability and cannot afford a slip with Sabalenka lurking in her projected quarter. A Fernandez upset here would be the women's equivalent of the Van de Zandschulp result.
Alcaraz vs. Wu Yibing (Men's R3):
Alcaraz's third-round match against Wu Yibing follows as the Spaniard continues his comeback from a wrist injury sustained in April.
Alcaraz has not played an official match since April, leaving significant questions about fitness and match sharpness
— but his jump to 53% suggests the market is rapidly discounting those concerns. A clean straight-sets win today seals the narrative.
Shelton vs. Shapovalov (Men's R3):
Ben Shelton's third-round showdown with Canadian Denis Shapovalov
is the evening centrepiece.
Shelton is aiming to become the first American man to win a Grand Slam since Andy Roddick won here in 2003.
His serve on Ashe with the home crowd behind him is a genuine weapon.
Women's Doubles Storyline
Serena and Venus Williams take centre stage in the first round of women's doubles action, facing Chan Hao-Ching and Maya Joint.
It adds a ceremonial dimension to Friday's card without altering the singles markets.
What the Upsets Mean: Reading the Revised Draw
The exits of Auger-Aliassime (R2), De Minaur (R2), and Djokovic (R1) have systematically cleared dangerous opponents from the draw's upper half. Khachanov and Van de Zandschulp are accomplished players but neither carries the title probability of those they eliminated.
For Zverev, the five-set exertion against Halys matters.
Zverev has put together an outstanding 2026 season, winning Roland Garros before reaching the Wimbledon final
— but accumulated fatigue across best-of-five sets compounds across a fortnight. Markets have kept him flat at 23% as of September 4 rather than shortening him on the back of opponents' exits: a signal that sharp money sees the fitness risk.
For Alcaraz, the calculus is the opposite. Each clean, short match restores confidence in his wrist and extends his runway. His 53% probability as of September 4 reflects a field rapidly being cleared around him.
Women's Draw: Sabalenka's Path to History
Sabalenka enters her three-peat bid in shaky pre-tournament form after losing in the Round of 16 at both the National Bank Open and Cincinnati Open.
But her 6-3, 6-4 second-round win showed no carry-over rust.
She is not expected to face major challenges until the Round of 16, where a potential matchup against Diana Shnaider looms — the player who stunned Sabalenka in the 2026 French Open quarterfinal.
Coco Gauff at 21% is the most credible challenger based on market structure.
Gauff and Swiatek have moved into the next two market spots
as Elena Rybakina's position softened following injury concerns in the lead-up.
Pegula vs. Fernandez today is essentially a preview of the competitive pressure arriving in the quarters. A loss for Pegula collapses one of the tighter title clusters in the women's draw.
Tournament Snapshot: Prize Money and Context
The 2026 US Open offers a record $108 million in total player compensation — the largest package in tennis history, up 21% from 2025. The men's and women's singles champions each receive $5.5 million, a 10% increase from 2025.
This is the 146th edition of the US Open, held on the outdoor hard courts at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center in New York City.
The women's singles final is scheduled for Saturday, September 12 at 4 p.m. Eastern; the men's singles final is Sunday, September 13, not before 2 p.m. Eastern.
Where to Follow Live Odds
Every market referenced in this briefing — match-winner, set betting, and outright tournament prices — updates live at WeeBet's 2026 US Open hub: /events/us-open-tennis-2026. Prices move point-by-point. The hub also carries same-game markets for each match on the Day 6 card.
Please bet responsibly. Set a deposit limit before placing any wager. Support is available at BeGambleAware.org or by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (US).
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is the favourite to win the 2026 US Open men's singles title?
Carlos Alcaraz holds a commanding 53% title probability as of September 4, sitting 30 points clear of second-placed Alexander Zverev at 23%.
Alcaraz's position has strengthened each day of the tournament.
Is Novak Djokovic still in the 2026 US Open?
No. Djokovic was ousted in the opening round — the first time in his career he has exited the US Open in the first round.
He entered with +700 pre-tournament odds and is no longer a factor in the draw.
Who are the biggest upset threats in the men's draw on September 4?
Karen Khachanov demonstrated his capacity for an upset by beating third seed Auger-Aliassime on Thursday
, and he remains in the draw. Ben Shelton, though a home favourite, faces an unpredictable Denis Shapovalov who can produce world-class tennis on a fast hard court.
Can Sabalenka win a third consecutive US Open title?
Sabalenka is seeking to become the third woman in the Open Era (since 1968) to three-peat at the US Open.
She leads the women's market at 26% as of September 4, with Coco Gauff her closest pursuer at 21%. The projected quarter-final against Diana Shnaider —
who stunned Sabalenka in the 2026 French Open quarter-final
— represents the clearest obstacle on her path to history.
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