Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?
As of July 2026, Polymarket traders give “Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?” a 64% chance of resolving YES, down 19 points over the past 24 hours. $805.1k has traded in the last 24 hours, and it resolves on December 31, 2026. A YES price of 64% is the market-implied probability the event happens — not a guarantee. Verify the full resolution criteria on Polymarket before trading.
YES
64¢
down 19 points 24h
NO
36¢
24h volume
$805.1k
Open interest
—
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?
PolymarketYES probability for "Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?" moved from 80% to 64% across 51 points. Current 64%. Data points: Jul 30: 80%, Jul 30: 91%, Jul 31: 89%, Jul 31: 87%, Jul 31: 87%, Jul 31: 86%, Jul 31: 87%, Jul 31: 86%, Jul 31: 91%, Jul 31: 88%, Jul 31: 84%, Jul 31: 85%, Jul 31: 91%, Jul 31: 90%, Jul 31: 90%, Jul 31: 93%, Jul 31: 94%, Jul 31: 88%, Jul 31: 86%, Jul 31: 92%, Jul 31: 91%, Jul 31: 89%, Jul 31: 88%, Jul 31: 88%, Jul 31: 90%, Jul 31: 88%, Jul 31: 90%, Jul 31: 92%, Jul 31: 88%, Jul 31: 88%, Jul 31: 89%, Jul 31: 89%, Jul 31: 92%, Jul 31: 92%, Jul 31: 93%, Jul 31: 92%, Jul 31: 92%, Jul 31: 92%, Jul 31: 90%, Jul 31: 89%, Jul 31: 88%, Jul 31: 84%, Jul 31: 59%, Jul 31: 63%, Jul 31: 60%, Jul 31: 60%, Jul 31: 60%, Jul 31: 61%, Jul 31: 62%, Jul 31: 64%, Now: 64%
The WeeBet Angle
Hamas agree to disarm by December 31 on Polymarket
64% — Major repricing — something changed; check the news.
Trade this market
WeeBet doesn't accept wagers — you'll trade on Polymarket directly. Standard affiliate disclosure applies.
Open on Polymarket →- Licensed (CFTC-regulated DCM)
- No min deposit
- Since 2021
Advertising disclosure: WeeBet earns a commission if you sign up via this link — it doesn't affect our rating. 18+/21+ · Gamble responsibly.
More other markets
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
FAQ
- What are the odds of Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31??
- As of July 2026, the prediction market on Polymarket implies a 64% probability of YES (down 19 points in the last 24h).
- Where can I trade Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31??
- This contract trades on Polymarket. WeeBet links you to the source platform — we don't accept wagers.
- When does this market resolve?
- It is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026, at which point YES or NO pays out based on the platform's resolution source.