Guide
How to read prediction-market odds as probability
A prediction-market price IS the probability. A contract trading at 64¢ means the market prices that outcome at roughly a 64% chance — the price (0–100¢) maps directly to a 0–100% implied probability. Unlike sportsbook odds, there's no conversion needed and no built-in bookmaker margin baked into a single number. Here's how to read the price, what the spread tells you, and where it differs from bookmaker odds.
Tools to track the markets
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Price = implied probability
On venues like Polymarket and Kalshi, a YES contract pays $1 if the event happens and $0 if it doesn't. So a price of 64¢ means traders collectively price a ~64% chance. To read any market: the cents are the percent. A move from 64¢ to 71¢ is the market raising the implied probability by 7 points.
What the bid/ask spread tells you
The gap between the best buy (bid) and sell (ask) price reflects liquidity and uncertainty. A tight spread on a deep market is a confident, tradable price; a wide spread means thin liquidity — treat the midpoint as a rough estimate, not a precise probability.
Why this differs from sportsbook odds
Sportsbook odds (e.g. -150 or 2.50) embed the book's margin (the 'vig'), so the implied probabilities across outcomes sum to more than 100%. Prediction-market prices for a clean YES/NO market sit close to true probability because they're set by traders, not a house margin. When comparing the two, strip the vig from sportsbook odds first — our odds converter does this.
FAQ
Does a 64¢ price mean a 64% chance?
Roughly, yes. On a YES/NO prediction market the price in cents equals the market-implied probability in percent. It's the crowd's money-weighted estimate, not a guarantee — and thin markets are noisier.
How are prediction-market odds different from betting odds?
Prediction-market prices map directly to probability and carry no built-in house margin, so they're often a cleaner probability estimate. Sportsbook odds embed the vig, so their implied probabilities sum to over 100%.
Can I trust the price as the 'true' probability?
On deep, liquid markets the price is a strong, hard-to-beat estimate. On thin markets with a wide spread, treat it as approximate. Liquidity is the tell.