Explainer · prediction
What is Kalshi?
What is Kalshi?
Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated event contract exchange where U.S. traders can buy and sell positions on the outcomes of real-world events — from Federal Reserve interest rate decisions to hurricane landfalls — using real money.
Founded by Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara, Kalshi launched publicly in October 2021 after receiving CFTC designation as a Designated Contract Market (DCM) in November 2020, making it the first federally regulated prediction market in the United States. As of May 2026, the platform is legal and accessible in all 50 U.S. states, distinguishing it from offshore prediction markets like Polymarket, which face U.S. regulatory restrictions. Kalshi's primary competitors include PredictIt (which operates under a CFTC no-action letter with strict limits) and Polymarket (blockchain-based, not available to U.S. users).
How Kalshi Works
Kalshi offers binary event contracts — each contract resolves at either $1 (Yes wins) or $0 (No wins). Traders buy Yes or No positions at prices between $0.01 and $0.99, which reflect the market's implied probability of an event occurring. If you pay $0.62 for a Yes contract and the event happens, you collect $1.00 — a $0.38 profit per contract.
Funding and withdrawal are handled via ACH bank transfer, with no cryptocurrency required. As of May 2026, Kalshi imposes no fees on deposits or withdrawals, and charges a trading fee typically ranging from 7% to 14% of winnings depending on market liquidity.
What You Can Trade
Kalshi organizes its markets into several categories:
- Economics — CPI prints, Fed rate decisions, unemployment figures
- Politics — Election outcomes, legislative votes, executive actions
- Weather & Climate — Hurricane categories, seasonal temperature records
- Finance — S&P 500 daily moves, Treasury yield thresholds
- Sports — Game outcomes, championship winners
- Science & Tech — FDA approvals, AI benchmark milestones
As of May 2026, Kalshi lists several hundred active markets at any given time.
Regulation and Legal Status
Since its November 2020 CFTC designation, Kalshi operates under federal oversight as a Designated Contract Market — the same legal category as the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. This classification means Kalshi is not governed by state gambling laws, which is why it can legally operate in all 50 states, including states that prohibit sports betting platforms. CFTC oversight requires Kalshi to maintain market integrity standards, segregate customer funds, and report trading activity to regulators.
Kalshi vs. Competitors
| Platform | CFTC-Regulated | U.S. Legal | Real-Money | Crypto Required |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | Yes (DCM) | All 50 states | Yes (ACH) | No |
| PredictIt | No-action letter | Most states | Yes | No |
| Polymarket | No | Blocked for U.S. users | Yes | Yes (USDC) |
Account Limits and Minimums
As of May 2026, Kalshi requires a minimum deposit of $1 and sets a minimum trade size of $1. Position limits vary by market; politically sensitive markets have historically carried per-account caps. There is no maximum account balance disclosed publicly. Verification requires a valid U.S. government ID and Social Security Number for identity confirmation under standard KYC requirements.
FAQ
Is Kalshi legal in my state? As of May 2026, Kalshi is available to residents in all 50 U.S. states. Because Kalshi is regulated federally as a CFTC Designated Contract Market, it is not subject to individual state gambling statutes that restrict other prediction or sports-trading platforms.
Is Kalshi gambling? Kalshi is classified by the CFTC as an event contract exchange, not a gambling operator. Legally and regulatorily, trading on Kalshi is treated as financial derivatives trading, not wagering, which is why it operates under federal commodities law rather than state gaming law.
How does Kalshi make money? Kalshi charges a trading fee on winning positions, typically between 7% and 14% of profits depending on the market. As of May 2026, there are no deposit fees, withdrawal fees, or subscription charges.
How do I withdraw money from Kalshi? Withdrawals are processed via ACH transfer directly to a linked U.S. bank account. As of May 2026, Kalshi does not support wire transfers, checks, or cryptocurrency withdrawals, and ACH transfers typically settle within 3–5 business days.
What happens if Kalshi shuts down? Because Kalshi holds customer funds in segregated accounts under CFTC rules, trader balances are legally protected from Kalshi's own operating funds. In the event of insolvency, segregated funds are not available to creditors and must be returned to customers, similar to protections at other CFTC-regulated exchanges.
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