World Cup 2026 Briefing: Semis Set, France Lead Odds
Rest day before the semifinals: France vs. Spain and England vs. Argentina markets move fast
World Cup 2026 Daily Briefing — July 13, 2026: Semifinal Week Begins
What the odds say
2026 FIFA World Cup
The quarterfinals are done.
Only four teams remain in the 2026 FIFA World Cup: France, Spain, England, and defending champion Argentina.
On Saturday, July 12, both sides of the bracket closed out in dramatic fashion.
England defeated Norway 2–1 and Argentina beat Switzerland 3–1 in the quarterfinals.
England won thanks to a brace from Jude Bellingham, while Argentina claimed a late victory against Switzerland, who were reduced to 10 men.
With no matches scheduled for July 13, today is the tournament's sole rest day ahead of the back-to-back semifinals.
France meets Spain on Tuesday, July 14 at 3 p.m. ET at AT&T Stadium in Dallas, followed by England vs. Argentina on Wednesday, July 15 at 3 p.m. ET at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.
The winner of each tie advances to
the final on Sunday, July 19, 2026, at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey.
All live title odds and semifinal markets are updated in real time at WeeBet's World Cup hub — /events/world-cup-2026.
- Tournament title favouriteFrance (+0)FanDuel, Jul 12
- Spain to win title+0FanDuel, Jul 12
- England to win title+0ESPN/FanDuel, Jul 12
- Argentina to win title+0ESPN/FanDuel, Jul 12
- France goals scored0Tournament total
- France goals conceded0Tournament total
Quarterfinal Recap: How the Final Four Got Here
The semifinal bracket is set after a quarterfinal round that saw France oust Morocco, Spain edge Belgium, England eliminate Norway, and Argentina defeat Switzerland.
Powered by goals from Kylian Mbappé and Ousmane Dembélé, France became the first team to punch its ticket to the semifinals with a 2-0 victory over Morocco on July 9.
Mbappé's eighth goal of the tournament combined with Dembélé's fifth to power Les Bleus through.
Spain had to sweat against Portugal in the round of 16, with Mikel Merino's 90th-minute strike earning a 1–0 win. Merino was again the hero off the bench in the quarterfinal, delivering the decisive touch in the 88th minute as Belgium fell 2–1 on July 10.
Two more goals from Jude Bellingham were enough to send Norway home in the quarterfinal on July 11.
England has now reached a fourth World Cup semifinal, including two semifinals in the last three World Cups for the first time.
Argentina's extra-time victory over Switzerland marked their 12th straight World Cup win, and La Albiceleste have now made consecutive semifinals for only the second time in their history.
The first time came in 1986 and 1990.
Title Odds: France Firm Favourites, Bracket a Sportsbook Nightmare
France and Spain remain atop the World Cup winner odds board. The French, who secured the first semifinals berth with a 2-0 win over Morocco, have taken control as the clear favourites, moving to +150 from +500 at the start of the tournament.
Spain have improved to +310 from +450 at tournament start
, while
England stands at +340 and Argentina at +360 ahead of Wednesday's match.
Because the top two teams on the odds board are playing each other in the semifinals, the winner of the France vs. Spain showdown will be the overwhelming favourite in the World Cup final.
That market structure is compressing prices across the board and creating meaningful value questions on the England–Argentina side of the bracket.
For sportsbooks, it is not a clean scenario.
BetMGM trading manager Seamus Magee confirmed: "We're rooting against France and Spain. We'll probably need one of those two to lose in the final, with the way the bracket is set up."
Track every odds movement live at /events/world-cup-2026 — positions update in real time as the semifinals approach.
Semifinal 1: France vs. Spain — Dallas, July 14
For the first time in World Cup history, all four of FIFA's top four-ranked teams entering the tournament have reached the semis.
The first matchup is the marquee event of this draw.
France have won all six of their games, scoring 16 goals and overpowering teams with the attacking brilliance of Kylian Mbappé, Ousmane Dembélé, and Michael Olise.
France are the first team since 2002 Brazil to have two players score five or more goals in a single World Cup.
Spain's route has been more methodical.
Slow progress has allowed players who were fitness doubts — like Rodri and Lamine Yamal — to find match rhythm, while the tournament's best defence has kept things drama-free.
France are favoured to advance at -148, with Spain priced at +120, while the match moneyline reads France +135, Draw +220, Spain +220.
Semifinal 1 Head-to-Head — France vs. Spain (tournament stats)
| Metric | France | Spain |
|---|---|---|
| Matches played | 6 | 6 |
| Goals scored | 16 | 11 |
| Goals conceded | 2 | 1 |
| Clean sheets (KO stage) | 3 | 2 |
| Title odds (FanDuel, Jul 12) | +150 | +310 |
| To advance odds | -148 | +120 |
Semifinal 2: England vs. Argentina — Atlanta, July 15
The England vs. Argentina moneyline reads: England +160, Draw +190, Argentina +210, with England priced to advance at -130 and Argentina at +106.
Lionel Messi has been one of the best players in the tournament, scoring eight goals and turning the clock back to the game dominance of his younger days.
But Argentina's resilience has come at a cost.
Against Egypt, Argentina were 2–0 down with barely 10 minutes remaining; two goals in four minutes via Cristian Romero and Messi levelled the tie before Enzo Fernández's 93rd-minute winner secured a 3–2 victory.
England carry momentum and fitness.
The Three Lions have a similar structure to Argentina, relying heavily on Harry Kane for offence, though Jude Bellingham has emerged as a strong secondary threat.
Bellingham's brace against Norway on July 11 was his third multi-goal knockout performance of the tournament.
Messi faces England for the first time at a World Cup
— a fact FIFA.com has highlighted prominently — making this the unambiguous narrative centrepiece of the semifinal week.
Storylines to Track on July 14–15
Mbappé's Golden Boot lead.
Kylian Mbappé is favoured to win both the Golden Boot and the Golden Ball, while Michael Olise leads the tournament in assists.
With eight goals through six games, Mbappé needs the semifinal to extend his lead.
Spain's defensive record.
France have reached the final four without conceding a goal in any of their three knockout-stage matches.
Spain have similarly been near-impenetrable at the back. Tuesday's match-up pits the tournament's two best defences against its two most prolific attacks.
Bellingham vs. Messi. The July 15 semi generates its own gravitational pull.
Bellingham has proven his worth once again
, and a clean tactical battle against Messi's Argentina — which has looked shaky defensively in every knockout match — sets up one of the most watchable individual contests in years.
Yamal's age record.
Spain's Unai Simón is favoured to win the Golden Glove and Lamine Yamal is favoured to win Young Player of the Tournament.
At 18, Yamal becoming the youngest player in World Cup semifinal history would make Tuesday's match historic regardless of the result.
The Broader Tournament Picture
This is the first World Cup to feature 48 teams and to be co-hosted by three countries — the United States, Canada, and Mexico.
The 2026 tournament features a record 104 matches in total.
All three tournament co-hosts were knocked out in the Round of 16: Canada lost to Morocco, Mexico fell to England, and the USMNT was eliminated by Belgium.
The United States was the largest liability for every major American sportsbook, making their elimination a net positive for books.
Forty-four teams have fallen by the wayside over the past month, including co-hosts Canada, Mexico, and the United States, as well as traditional powerhouses Brazil and Germany.
Brazil lost to Norway and Portugal were eliminated by Spain.
How to Follow and Where to Place
WeeBet's dedicated hub at /events/world-cup-2026 carries live-updating title winner markets, semifinal match event contracts, Golden Boot positions, and player prop markets for both upcoming matches. Odds on the France–Spain and England–Argentina ties are live now, with prices moving in real time as team news filters through on July 13.
All market positions are event contracts — not traditional wagering products — and are available in eligible jurisdictions. Please bet responsibly. If betting is available in your region, set a deposit limit before placing any positions. Support is available at BeGambleAware.org and the National Problem Gambling Helpline (1-800-522-4700).
Frequently Asked Questions
Who are the four remaining teams at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Forty-eight teams began the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Now only four remain: France, Spain, England, and defending champion Argentina.
When and where are the 2026 World Cup semifinals?
France vs. Spain kicks off on Tuesday, July 14 at 3 p.m. ET at AT&T Stadium in Dallas. England vs. Argentina follows on Wednesday, July 15 at 3 p.m. ET at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.
Who are the favourites to win the 2026 World Cup title?
As of July 12, 2026, France lead the title odds at +140, followed by England at +310, Spain at +330, and Argentina at +400
at FanDuel Sportsbook. Live odds are tracked at WeeBet's hub at /events/world-cup-2026.
Who is leading the Golden Boot race at the 2026 World Cup?
Kylian Mbappé leads with eight goals through France's six matches, while Ousmane Dembélé has five.
France are the first team since 2002 Brazil to have two players score five or more goals in a single World Cup.
Lionel Messi has also scored eight goals during Argentina's run
, making the Golden Boot race effectively a two-horse contest heading into the semifinals.
About the author
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