2026 US Open Day 5: Alcaraz Surges, Zverev Tested
Alcaraz hits 39% title probability after Faria win; Gauff, Zverev, Osaka headline Thursday's card
Day 5 Briefing: Second Round Rolls On at Flushing Meadows
September 3, 2026 | Day 5 of 14 | USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, New York
Wednesday's second-round action at the 2026 US Open delivered the tournament's clearest statement yet:
Carlos Alcaraz and Ben Shelton each advanced in four sets — Alcaraz overcoming Portugal's Jaime Faria, while Shelton outlasted big-server Hubert Hurkacz.
Daniil Medvedev, Frances Tiafoe, and Tommy Paul also moved through.
Now Thursday, September 3, shifts the spotlight to Arthur Ashe's evening session, where three marquee matches headline Day 5:
Arthur Ashe Stadium features a women's singles showdown between No. 13 seed Naomi Osaka and Olympic doubles champion Kateřina Siniaková.
Coco Gauff faces Spain's Paula Badosa in the evening session, with men's No. 1 seed Alexander Zverev set to face France's Quentin Halys.
Alexandra Eala, Felix Auger-Aliassime, and Gaël Monfils are also in action at Louis Armstrong Stadium.
In the title markets, Alcaraz has surged to tournament favourite status and the women's draw remains a genuine three-way battle. Track live odds and open positions at WeeBet's live hub → /events/us-open-tennis-2026.
- Men's title leaderAlcaraz2nd seed
- Alcaraz win prob.~0%Sept 2 data
- Women's title leaderSabalenka1st seed
- Sabalenka win prob.~0%Sept 2 data
- Prize pool$0MRecord 2026
- Tournament dayDay 0 / R2Sept 3
Wednesday's Key Results: What Happened on Day 4
Carlos Alcaraz looked stellar, defeating Jaime Faria; the defending champion entered the tournament on the heels of a four-month-long absence due to a wrist injury, yet alleviated fitness concerns quickly.
Though Alcaraz did not hit his serve at top speeds, he saved 5 of 6 break points and dominated at the net, winning 19 of 24 net points.
Stefanos Tsitsipas upset Arthur Fils in four sets, earning his first top-10 win at a major since 2022. Fils had entered off the heels of winning the Cincinnati Open and was considered a strong title contender; Tsitsipas played impressive tennis to prevail.
That result reshapes the top half of the men's draw meaningfully — Fils was one of the few players capable of threatening Alcaraz before a potential semifinal.
In the final men's match at Arthur Ashe Stadium, Ben Shelton defeated Tallon Griekspoor in four sets.
On the women's side,
No. 1 seed Aryna Sabalenka defeated Camila Osorio 6-2, 6-4
— a clean, efficient win that burned minimal energy heading into the deeper rounds.
The first-round shock of the tournament still echoes:
top-10 odds shortened sharply after first-round losses by three seeds, including No. 4 Novak Djokovic, who lost to Argentina's Mariano Navone — his first opening-round defeat in a Grand Slam in more than 20 years.
Title Market Update: Alcaraz Surges, Sabalenka Steady
The men's market has moved decisively since the draw was released.
Carlos Alcaraz strengthened his position as the US Open favourite, surging from 32% to 39% win probability after his second-round win over Jaime Faria.
Alcaraz now owns more than twice the probability of Alexander Zverev, who has slipped slightly to 21%. Ben Shelton remains at 12%, while Taylor Fritz has moved up to 9% and Rafael Jodar to 7%.
Daniil Medvedev has slipped from 6% to 5%, while Felix Auger-Aliassime sits at 4%.
The Tsitsipas-over-Fils result has not yet fully repriced in all markets — Fils's removal from the draw is a structural tailwind for anyone in Alcaraz's quarter, and the WeeBet hub at /events/us-open-tennis-2026 is reflecting those shifts in real time.
In the women's market, two-time defending champion Aryna Sabalenka sits at 25% win probability, with Coco Gauff right behind at 20% and Iga Swiatek dipping slightly to 15%.
Jessica Pegula holds steady at 10%, while Naomi Osaka now stands at 7%.
Elena Rybakina remains at 6% as the market continues to weigh concerns about her Achilles injury.
Men's Title Win Probability — As of September 2, 2026
| Player | Seed | Win Prob. | Move (24h) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Alcaraz | 2 | ~39% | ▲ +7pp |
| Alexander Zverev | 1 | ~21% | ▼ slight |
| Ben Shelton | 8 | ~12% | — |
| Taylor Fritz | 9 | ~9% | ▲ |
| Rafael Jodar | — | ~7% | — |
| Daniil Medvedev | 7 | ~5% | ▼ -1pp |
The Bigger Picture: What Alcaraz's Return Means
World No. 1 Jannik Sinner is absent due to a right knee injury, meaning Alcaraz returns for his first singles action since April as the de facto favourite.
The four-month absence generated genuine uncertainty heading in; those doubts are already evaporating. His 5-of-6 break-point save rate against Faria, combined with clean net dominance, indicates Alcaraz is close to peak physical condition.
The 2026 US Open is the 146th edition of the tournament and the fourth and final Grand Slam of the year, played on outdoor hard courts at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center in New York City.
The record $108 million prize pool adds further weight to every round.
The 2026 US Open offered a record $108 million in total player compensation — the largest package in tennis history, an increase of 21% from 2025.
Women's Draw: Sabalenka's Three-Peat Bid and the Threats Closing In
Aryna Sabalenka is the two-time defending champion and No. 1 seed for an eighth straight major. A third title in a row would make her the first woman to three-peat in New York since Serena Williams in 2012, 2013, and 2014.
The challenge is real, though.
Diana Shnaider stunned Sabalenka in the 2026 French Open quarterfinal and enters the US Open in impressive form.
Shnaider advanced her first-round match on Wednesday, keeping that projected rematch firmly on track.
Sabalenka will likely need to navigate 2026 Wimbledon champion Linda Noskova and No. 3 seed Jessica Pegula just to reach the final.
Coco Gauff's 20% probability — up from 19% after her first-round win — sets up Thursday's match against Paula Badosa as a critical temperature check. Gauff has played some of her best tennis in New York's late-summer heat, and a straightforward win tonight would likely push her probability above Sabalenka's for the first time this tournament. Watch the markets move in real time at WeeBet → /events/us-open-tennis-2026.
Thursday's Matches to Watch — September 3
Naomi Osaka vs. Kateřina Siniaková — Arthur Ashe Stadium (Day Session)
Arthur Ashe Stadium opens Thursday with an enticing women's singles showdown between No. 13 seed Naomi Osaka and Olympic doubles champion Kateřina Siniaková.
Osaka now stands at 7% in the title markets
— a meaningful position for a former champion. Siniaková is a specialist doubles player whose all-court game makes her a dangerous floater in singles.
Coco Gauff vs. Paula Badosa — Arthur Ashe Stadium (Evening)
The higher-stakes women's match of the day. Gauff enters as clear favourite, and this is one of the marquee evening sessions at Ashe. A dominant win here would cement her case as the most credible challenger to Sabalenka.
Alexander Zverev vs. Quentin Halys — Arthur Ashe Stadium (Evening)
The 2026 US Open continues Thursday, with top seed Alexander Zverev among those in action.
Zverev's first-round five-setter against Lorenzo Sonego raised eyebrows.
Zverev himself said it was "the longest first-round match I've ever played"
— a concerning note for a player who needs deep reserves over two weeks. Halys is a capable hard-court competitor who will test Zverev's serve return early. Markets have Zverev at ~21%; a laboured win or a dropped set will push that number down further.
Felix Auger-Aliassime & Gaël Monfils — Louis Armstrong Stadium
Canadian star Felix Auger-Aliassime and French icon Gaël Monfils are also in action at Louis Armstrong Stadium as second-round play in both singles draws progresses.
Monfils, in what many expect to be his final US Open, will draw a large and vocal crowd at Armstrong.
Tournament Context: Prize Money and the Stakes
The men's and women's singles champions each receive $5,500,000 — a 10% increase from the $5,000,000 awarded in 2025, while runners-up receive $2,800,000.
First-round singles players received $140,000 — an increase of 27.3% from 2025.
The prize structure matters for draw narratives: players already banking six-figure sums from early exits have less financial pressure to play through injury — which may explain Rybakina's continued participation despite the Achilles concern that has trimmed her market position.
The women's singles final is scheduled for Saturday, September 12, at 4 p.m. Eastern, while the men's singles final takes place Sunday, September 13, not before 2 p.m. Eastern.
Ten days of draw compression remain.
How to Follow Live Odds and Open Positions
Every title market, second-round match contract, and player prop discussed in this briefing is live at WeeBet's 2026 US Open hub → /events/us-open-tennis-2026. The hub updates in real time as matches conclude and positions shift. Odds on Zverev, Gauff, and Osaka will be among the most active movers on Day 5. If you're new to event contracts on prediction markets, the hub also carries an explainer on how match and tournament winner markets are settled.
Please bet responsibly. Set a deposit limit before you play and visit BeGambleAware.org if you need support.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is the favourite to win the 2026 US Open men's singles?
Carlos Alcaraz has surged to approximately 39% win probability
— the highest of any player in either draw — making him the clear men's favourite as of September 2, 2026.
Alcaraz now owns more than twice the probability of second-placed Alexander Zverev at ~21%.
Is Novak Djokovic still in the 2026 US Open?
No.
Djokovic lost to Argentina's Mariano Navone in the first round — his first opening-round defeat in a Grand Slam in more than 20 years.
He is out of the tournament.
Is Jannik Sinner playing at the 2026 US Open?
World No. 1 Jannik Sinner is absent from the 2026 US Open due to a right knee injury.
His withdrawal elevated Carlos Alcaraz to the top of the title market.
Can Aryna Sabalenka win a third consecutive US Open title?
A third title in a row would make Sabalenka the first woman to three-peat in New York since Serena Williams did it in 2012, 2013, and 2014.
As of September 2, 2026, she holds a 25% win probability — the highest in the women's field — but faces projected clashes with Wimbledon champion Linda Noskova, No. 3 seed Jessica Pegula, and potentially Diana Shnaider, who beat her at Roland-Garros in June.
About the author
WeeBet's editorial desk: daily news, weekly analysis, and operator reviews across prediction markets, crypto gambling, sweepstakes, and DFS. Bylined collectively for cross-vertical perspective.
Related analyses
WeeBet Weekly
The week's biggest market move, in 4 minutes.
Every Friday: the top Polymarket and Kalshi price shift, one regulatory story that actually matters, and one chart. No fluff, no promo. Free.
Free. Unsubscribe in one click. We'll never sell your email.