2026 US Open: Draw Day Briefing — August 27
Sinner out, Alcaraz returns, Rybakina in doubt: the draw unfolds at Flushing Meadows
2026 US Open: Draw Day Briefing — August 27
The 2026 US Open is the biggest prize-money event in the sport's history, and the field is already reshaping before a single main-draw point is played. World No. 1 Jannik Sinner has withdrawn from the tournament due to a right knee injury,
sending Carlos Alcaraz's title probability soaring from 29% to 35% on Kalshi event contracts
. On the women's side,
Elena Rybakina has tumbled to 3% on Kalshi after retiring in the first set of her Cincinnati quarterfinal against Iga Świątek with an apparent Achilles injury
, making her participation uncertain. Today — Thursday, August 27 — is draw day:
the men's singles draw is made on Thursday, August 27
, revealing bracket paths for all 128 entrants. Qualifying wraps up today as well,
concluding at 11 a.m. EDT
, with 16 men and 16 women fighting for the final main-draw spots.
Main draw play begins on August 30
. The title odds, bracket markets, and qualifying result event contracts are all live now at WeeBet's US Open hub: /events/us-open-tennis-2026.
Tournament Context: Record Stakes, Maximum Disruption
The 2026 US Open is offering a record $108 million in total player compensation — a 20% increase from the previous record of $90 million in 2025 and the largest player compensation package in professional tennis history.
Of that $108 million total, $101 million is allocated to prize money, with a further $5 million in player stipends and $2 million to a new Player Support Program, split equally between the men's and women's tours.
The men's and women's singles champions each take home $5.5 million.
The financial backdrop has elevated every market on the board — and the player disruptions ahead of the draw have made the title contracts one of the most fluid in recent US Open history.
- Total Prize Pool$0MRecord 2026
- Singles Champion Payout$0.0MMen & Women
- Alcaraz Win Prob. (Kalshi)0%Post-Sinner WD
- Sabalenka Win Prob. (Kalshi)FavouriteWomen's draw
- Main Draw StartAug 0First serve
The Sinner Withdrawal: How the Men's Market Moved
The 2026 US Open odds have undergone a major shakeup with World No. 1 Jannik Sinner withdrawing from the tournament due to a right knee injury.
Sinner's absence leaves defending champion Carlos Alcaraz at the center of the men's futures market. Alcaraz confirmed he will make his first appearance since April after missing four months with a wrist injury.
French Open champion Alexander Zverev moved into the second spot, and four-time US Open champion Novak Djokovic is now at an 11% chance to win a record 25th Grand Slam title.
Americans Ben Shelton and Spanish teenager Rafael Jódar round out the top five.
Zverev, who won the French Open and finished as runner-up at Wimbledon, disappointed in Montreal and Cincinnati
, raising real questions about his hard-court form heading into Flushing Meadows.
Arthur Fils won in Cincinnati, but six players have shorter odds than the Frenchman ahead of the US Open — one of those being ascendant Spaniard Rafael Jódar.
Men's Singles — Pre-Draw Title Odds (as of August 27, 2026)
| Player | Odds (US) | Implied Prob. | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Alcaraz | +195 | ~34% | Wrist return |
| Alexander Zverev | +350 | ~22% | RG champion |
| Novak Djokovic | +700 | ~13% | 4x champion |
| Ben Shelton | +800 | ~11% | Home crowd |
| Rafael Jódar | +1200 | ~8% | Rising star |
| Taylor Fritz | +1400 | ~7% | Home hope |
Odds sourced from pre-draw aggregates as of August 27, 2026. Live, updated contracts at WeeBet's US Open hub. Betting involves risk — please gamble responsibly.
Women's Draw: Sabalenka Holds, Rybakina in Doubt
Two-time defending champion Aryna Sabalenka remains the favourite on Kalshi, with Iga Świątek now her biggest challenger.
Sabalenka opens at +340 across offshore books, Coco Gauff sits at +500 after a statement week in Cincinnati, Iga Świątek at +480, and Naomi Osaka — twice a champion in Queens — lurks at +1000.
Gauff, Naomi Osaka, and Mirra Andreeva round out the top five on the US Open odds board.
The women's draw is historically volatile:
seven consecutive majors have produced seven different champions.
Melbourne went to Elena Rybakina, and the Paris final was won by 19-year-old Mirra Andreeva.
Rybakina's status is the key variable.
She has tumbled to 3% on Kalshi after retiring in the first set of her Cincinnati quarterfinal with an apparent Achilles injury, and her US Open status is now uncertain.
Any confirmation of her withdrawal today — likely before or at the draw ceremony — will immediately reprice the top of the women's board.
Today's Slate: Draw Ceremony + Qualifying Finals (August 27)
August 27 is the most consequential pre-tournament day. Two things happen simultaneously:
Draw Ceremony — Men's and Women's Singles
The US Open draw ceremony is held on Thursday, August 27.
With Sinner already out and Rybakina's participation in doubt, bracket positioning matters more than usual. Watch where Alcaraz lands: a draw that avoids Zverev until the semifinals would be a meaningful market signal.
Prices on the top eight typically tighten within hours once sections are visible.
Qualifying Finals — Last Tickets Punched
Qualifying runs through August 27, with play starting at 11:00 AM ET. 128 men and 128 women each chase one of just 16 qualifying spots per gender in the main draw.
Frenchman Arthur Gea entered as the top seed in the men's qualifying draw.
Any notable qualifier earning a main-draw slot — particularly big servers who can exploit Flushing Meadows' hard-court bounce — deserves a look in the long-shot markets.
Mixed Doubles Championship
The mixed doubles championship ran from August 24–26
, wrapping up just ahead of the main draw era.
Henry Patten defeated Novak Djokovic and Aryna Sabalenka in the mixed doubles event, while Lloyd Glasspool lost to Serena Williams and Carlos Alcaraz.
What the Odds Movement Means for the Title Markets
Sinner's withdrawal is not a superficial shift. He was the No. 1 ranked player in the world and, as 2024 US Open champion, carried significant market weight.
Uncertainty over Alcaraz's health and Sinner's absence means the men's draw is wide open.
Brazilian starlet João Fonseca is also sidelined through injury
, further thinning the elite tier.
Alcaraz at +195 is a compressed price for a player who has not competed since April and is returning from a wrist injury that cost him four months of the season.
Alcaraz is playing for the first time since mid-April, when he suffered a right-wrist injury in Barcelona.
The market is pricing his talent and the absence of competition above his physical readiness — a tension that opens genuine value on Zverev (+350) and Djokovic (+700) in the event Alcaraz's wrist is tested by a deep run.
On the women's side,
Victoria Mboko is the only seeded player to have withdrawn from the women's draw
(Rybakina is still listed pending confirmation). That draw is relatively intact — Sabalenka's +340 reflects her status as the only player in the field who has defended a US Open title in the Open Era.
Track every odds move as the draw bracket is revealed at WeeBet's live US Open hub: /events/us-open-tennis-2026.
Players to Watch Beyond the Favourites
Rafael Jódar (+1200):
The ascendant Spaniard registered deep runs in Washington and Montreal ahead of the US Open.
At 19 years old, Jódar won the 2024 US Open boys' singles and now arrives as a genuine outright threat at a venue where he has a documented comfort level.
Coco Gauff (+500): A statement Cincinnati week has Gauff entering as the in-form American, carrying heavy crowd support at a venue she has reached the final at before. Her price represents one of the cleaner value propositions on the women's board.
Naomi Osaka (+1000):
Osaka, twice a champion in Queens, lurks at +1000.
Her serve is built for this surface, and her two US Open titles (2018, 2020) make the long-shot price worth consideration.
Arthur Fils (+1600):
Fils won in Cincinnati
— the nearest hard-court warm-up event to Flushing Meadows — and arrives as the hottest player in the men's field by recent form. Six players carry shorter odds, but none of them won the week before New York.
Tournament Structure and Schedule at a Glance
The 2026 US Open runs through Sunday, September 13 at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center in Flushing Meadows, Queens, New York City.
The men's and women's singles main draws both begin on Sunday, August 30, with 128 players in each draw.
The women's singles final is on Saturday, September 12, and the men's singles final on Sunday, September 13.
With 22 days of competition and entertainment, including eight days of free grounds admission, this is the largest event schedule and most competition days in the US Open's near-150-year history.
Fan Week (August 23–29) combines qualifying matches, player practices, the revamped Mixed Doubles Championship, and family-friendly events including the traditional Arthur Ashe Kids' Day.
All markets — title outrights, set betting, player head-to-heads, and live in-match contracts — are updated in real time at WeeBet: /events/us-open-tennis-2026. Please bet responsibly. Set limits before you play.
Frequently Asked Questions
Has Jannik Sinner officially withdrawn from the 2026 US Open?
Yes. As of August 2026,
Jannik Sinner officially withdrew from the 2026 US Open due to a right knee injury.
His absence is confirmed and already reflected in all current title markets.
Is Carlos Alcaraz fit to compete?
Defending champion Carlos Alcaraz confirmed he will participate, making his first appearance since April after missing four months with a wrist injury.
He enters as the outright favourite but carries genuine fitness uncertainty heading into the main draw.
When does the 2026 US Open main draw begin?
The main draw begins on August 30.
Today, August 27, is the draw ceremony day, meaning bracket paths will be revealed by end of day. Qualifying also concludes today.
What is the prize money for the 2026 US Open singles champions?
A total of $108 million is on offer for all competing players across all events, with the men's and women's singles champions each taking home $5.5 million.
This is a 20% increase from the previous record of $90 million set in 2025.
About the author
WeeBet's editorial desk: daily news, weekly analysis, and operator reviews across prediction markets, crypto gambling, sweepstakes, and DFS. Bylined collectively for cross-vertical perspective.
Related analyses
WeeBet Weekly
The week's biggest market move, in 4 minutes.
Every Friday: the top Polymarket and Kalshi price shift, one regulatory story that actually matters, and one chart. No fluff, no promo. Free.
Free. Unsubscribe in one click. We'll never sell your email.