News
Latest from the desk
Daily reporting on regulation, launches, and market moves across prediction markets, crypto, sweepstakes, and DFS — curated, never reposted.
Ex-Senator Who Opposed Kalshi Now Lobbies for It
Former Arkansas Senator Blanche Lincoln once opposed Kalshi; she now lobbies for it. The shift reveals Kalshi's aggressive Washington strategy.
2 min read
Prediction2d agoStarkWare Launches OffMarket for Private Polymarket Trades
StarkWare opened OffMarket on Oct 14, 2026, letting Polymarket users trade privately via ZK proofs. Fee details remain undisclosed.
2 min read
Prediction2d agoCFTC Moves to Classify Sports Contracts as Swaps
The CFTC proposed rules this week to designate sports event contracts as swaps, tightening federal oversight of prediction market platforms.
2 min read
Prediction2d agoKalshi CEO: Prediction Markets Deter Insider Trading
Kalshi's CEO defended prediction markets against insider trading concerns this week, calling transparency a built-in deterrent to illicit activity.
2 min read
More headlines
5 more
Prediction2d agoKalshi CEO: State Oversight Would Kill U.S. Prediction Markets
Prediction5d agoNFL Backs States Against Kalshi at Supreme Court
BreakingPrediction6d agoKalshi Probes $173 Bets Set to Pay $9,600 on Press Pick
BreakingPredictionOct 9NFL, 39 States Back NJ Push for SCOTUS Kalshi Review
BreakingPredictionOct 8NFL Tells Supreme Court Kalshi Contracts Are Gambling
Prediction desk
Where Polymarket and Kalshi disagree — weekly.
The biggest cross-venue price gaps, the markets repricing on news, and the WeeBet Edge read. Straight to your inbox each Friday.
Free. Unsubscribe in one click. We'll never sell your email.
Earlier this month
41 more
PredictionOct 8Illinois Judge Backs Kalshi, Calls Contracts Swaps
An Illinois federal judge ruled this week that Kalshi's sports contracts are likely swaps, stripping state regulators of licensing authority over the platform.
2 min read
PredictionOct 7Global Regulators Push Supreme Court to Hear Kalshi Case
IAGR and NAGRA filed a joint amicus brief Oct. 2, 2026, urging SCOTUS to hear NJ's case against Kalshi's federal preemption claim.
2 min read
PredictionOct 7Polymarket CEO Slams 100x Token Chasing as Irrational
Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan called 100x token chasing 'irrational exuberance,' pitching prediction markets as the disciplined alternative.
2 min read
PredictionOct 6Kalshi Kills Volume Rewards After Wash Trade Heat
Kalshi filed to terminate its volume rewards program by October 13 after facing wash trading allegations in its ether perpetual futures market.
2 min read
PredictionOct 6Polymarket V2 Swaps Gnosis Setup for ERC-1155 and pUSD
Polymarket replaced its Gnosis-based architecture with a single ERC-1155 contract and pUSD collateral on Oct 6, 2026. Lower gas costs and standardised margin are the headline benefits.
2 min read
PredictionOct 6Polymarket Launches Protocol V2 Smart Contract Overhaul
Polymarket has started its Protocol V2 rollout, with all new prediction markets moving to the upgraded smart contracts in November 2026. Existing V1 positions remain unaffected during the transition.
1 min read
PredictionOct 6Underdog Revenue Doubles as IG Group Q3 Stumbles
Underdog Fantasy grew revenue 100% year-on-year in Q3 2026 while acquirer IG Group posted a quarterly decline. Deal completion details are imminent.
1 min read
PredictionOct 5Federal Court Backs CFTC and Kalshi Against Illinois
Judge Martha Pacold granted preliminary injunctions blocking Illinois from regulating CFTC-registered prediction market operators. The Oct. 2 ruling is a rare win for the sector in 2026.
2 min read
PredictionOct 5Polymarket Appeals €420K KSA Fine in The Hague
Polymarket is challenging a €420,000 KSA penalty in The Hague after being blacklisted in the Netherlands for unlicensed gambling. A ruling could reshape EU prediction-market rules.
2 min read
PredictionOct 3European Lotteries Pushes for Framework-Based Rules
European Lotteries wants EU regulators to govern prediction markets by legal function, not terminology. The move targets a compliance gap hurting licensed lottery operators.
2 min read
PredictionOct 2Crypto Billions Return, But the Premiums Are Gone
Kalshi seeks a $40B valuation and Blockchain.com pursues an IPO, but crypto treasury companies can no longer command bull-era premiums.
2 min read
BreakingPredictionOct 2Czech Republic Moves to Block Kalshi by Mid-October
Czech authorities added Kalshi to its unauthorised operator blacklist on 30 Sept 2026. ISPs must block the platform within 15 days.
1 min read
BreakingPredictionOct 1NCPG Chief Resigns After Kalshi Partnership Fallout
Heather Maurer resigned as NCPG executive director this week after member agencies quit over the council's Kalshi partnership. Leadership vacuum arrives as prediction markets expand.
2 min read
PredictionOct 1EL Warns Europe: Don't Regulate Prediction Markets Blindly
European Lotteries issued a formal caution in October 2026, warning regulators not to take prediction markets at face value when drafting policy.
2 min read
PredictionOct 1Kalshi Kills Volume Rewards Program Nearly a Year Early
Kalshi is terminating its Volume Incentive Program early per a Sept. 28 CFTC filing. Market makers and high-volume traders face immediate payout disruption.
2 min read
PredictionOct 1Kalshi Loses Sixth Circuit Appeal, Faces State Bans
The Sixth Circuit ruled against Kalshi on Sept 26 2026, clearing Ohio and Tennessee to ban its sports contracts. It's the platform's sixth appellate loss.
2 min read
BreakingPredictionOct 1New York Adds Polymarket to Its Prediction Market Crackdown
New York has extended its legal campaign against prediction markets to Polymarket, joining Kalshi as a target of state enforcement action.
2 min read
BreakingPredictionSep 30Kalshi Kills Incentive Program After Wash Trading Claims
Kalshi ends its liquidity incentive program amid wash trading allegations. September 2026 volume hit a record $52.98B, per The Block.
2 min read
BreakingPredictionSep 30CFTC Probes Kinzinger's Kalshi Bets on Own Pardon
The CFTC is investigating Adam Kinzinger for betting on Kalshi markets tied to his own pardon. He reported an $823 gain and denied holding inside information.
2 min read
BreakingPredictionSep 30Kalshi Eyes $40B Valuation in New Funding Round
Kalshi is in advanced talks to raise at a $40B valuation, up from $22B just four months ago. The round signals surging institutional confidence in regulated prediction markets.
2 min read
PredictionSep 29WSJ: Polymarket CEO Told Staff to Ignore Fraud
Polymarket's CEO directed staff to overlook payment fraud to keep growing, per the WSJ. The move puts users and regulators on high alert.
2 min read
BreakingPredictionSep 28New York Sues Polymarket Over Illegal Gambling Claim
New York sued Polymarket this week, alleging the crypto prediction market runs an illegal gambling operation. A court injunction could block platform access statewide.
2 min read
BreakingPredictionSep 26Kalshi Loses Appeal, Eyes Supreme Court Showdown
The 6th Circuit ruled against Kalshi in September 2026, backing state gambling laws. A Supreme Court petition now looms.
2 min read
BreakingPredictionSep 26Sixth Circuit Rules Kalshi Sports Contracts Aren't Swaps
The Sixth Circuit ruled Kalshi's sports contracts aren't swaps, removing CFTC cover. States now control regulatory oversight of those products.
2 min read
PredictionSep 25Kalshi Denies Accusations of Fake Crypto Perp Volume
Kalshi this week denied accusations it inflated crypto perpetual futures volume. The dispute poses serious reputational risk for the regulated prediction-market platform.
2 min read
PredictionSep 25Polymarket Pushes EU Regulators for Finance Status
Polymarket has launched a European lobbying push to gain financial services status. Success would open restricted EU markets and reshape prediction market regulation.
2 min read
BreakingPredictionSep 24New York Sues to Ban Polymarket as Illegal Gambling
New York filed a lawsuit this week to ban Polymarket, labelling it an illegal gambling operation lacking state licensure. The case could set a national precedent for prediction market regulation.
2 min read
- PredictionSep 24
NCPG Chief Defends Kalshi Deal as Members Quit
NCPG board president Derek Longmeier defended the Kalshi partnership this week as staff resigned and member groups quit. The split threatens NCPG's regulatory credibility.
2 min read
PredictionSep 23Kalshi Denies CFTC Probe Into Ether Perpetual Trading
Kalshi denied a CFTC investigation into its ether perpetual market, citing liquidity incentives. The denial comes as scrutiny of crypto prediction products intensifies.
2 min read
PredictionSep 23Kalshi Loses Again at Ninth Circuit as CA Tribes Win
The Ninth Circuit ruled against Kalshi again this week, siding with California tribes challenging its sports contracts. The loss deepens Kalshi's legal troubles in western U.S. markets.
2 min read
PredictionSep 22Kalshi Crypto Volumes Dominated by Repetitive Trades
A single $5,499 clip drove 57% of sampled ether-perpetual volume on Kalshi, raising market integrity questions. CoinDesk Markets published the findings September 22, 2026.
2 min read
PredictionSep 22Polymarket Lobbies Europe for Financial Service Status
Polymarket is lobbying UK and European regulators to classify its products as financial services, not gambling. The firm has already been banned in Italy, France, and the Netherlands.
2 min read
PredictionSep 21Prediction Markets Week 1: Bitcoin Rebounds, Senate Slips
Bitcoin rebound and Senate setback contracts led prediction-market volatility this week. Tanner Lux launches a recurring PokerNews movers series.
2 min read
BreakingPredictionSep 21Kalshi Faces Fake Volume Allegations on Ether Futures
A critic on X alleges Kalshi inflated ether perpetual futures volumes using identical $5,500 trades. Kalshi's crypto chief has responded publicly.
2 min read
BreakingPredictionSep 20Polymarket Hit by $10M Fraud Bid Amid Compliance Gaps
Polymarket faced a $10M fraud attempt and a 500-account hack as leadership deprioritised compliance, per WSJ and The Block.
2 min read
PredictionSep 19Kalshi Files for US Stock Perpetual Futures
Kalshi has filed to offer perpetual futures on individual US stocks, joining Coinbase and Bitnomial in seeking regulatory approval for the product.
2 min read
PredictionSep 18US Open: Did Kalshi's Prediction Markets Get It Right?
PokerNews analyzed Kalshi's pre-match probabilities across 254 US Open singles matches. The results test whether regulated prediction markets produce genuine price discovery.
2 min read
PredictionSep 18Ninth Circuit Backs Tribes Against Kalshi Sports Contracts
The Ninth Circuit ruled this week two California tribes will likely win their claim that Kalshi's sports contracts violate IGRA. The decision threatens Kalshi's broader US expansion.
2 min read
BreakingPredictionSep 17Genius Sports Launches Prediction.com Market Hub
Genius Sports launched Prediction.com, a prediction market comparison site built on its $1.2bn Legend acquisition. The platform aggregates prices across major operators.
2 min read
BreakingPredictionSep 17South Korea Charges 26 Polymarket Users for Illegal Gambling
South Korean police charged 26 Polymarket users under gambling law weeks after regulators blocked the platform. On-chain activity was traced to identifiable residents.
2 min read
BreakingPredictionSep 17Lithuania Blocks Polymarket in EU Prediction Market First
Lithuania's LPT has blocked Polymarket, the first prediction market restricted by the regulator. The move signals rising EU compliance risk for the sector.
2 min read