What are the odds of Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

As of October 2026, the prediction market on Polymarket implies a 16% probability of YES.

Where can I trade Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

This contract trades on Polymarket. WeeBet links you to the source platform — we don't accept wagers.

When does this market resolve

It is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027, at which point YES or NO pays out based on the platform's resolution source.

PolymarketWorld

☆ Watch

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

As of October 2026, Polymarket traders give “Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?” a 16% chance of resolving YES. $284.4k has traded in the last 24 hours, and it resolves on January 1, 2027. A YES price of 16% is the market-implied probability the event happens — not a guarantee. Verify the full resolution criteria on Polymarket before trading.

YES

16¢

84¢

24h volume

$284.4k

Open interest

—

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Polymarket

as of Oct 8, 2026

16%

+3 pts(7d)

Slight uptick

YES probability for "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?" moved from 15% to 16% across 1357 points. Current 16%. Data points: Sep 8: 15%, Sep 8: 15%, Sep 8: 15%, Sep 8: 16%, Sep 8: 16%, Sep 8: 15%, Sep 8: 16%, Sep 8: 16%, Sep 9: 16%, Sep 9: 15%, Sep 9: 15%, Sep 9: 15%, Sep 9: 15%, Sep 9: 14%, Sep 9: 14%, Sep 9: 14%, Sep 9: 14%, Sep 9: 14%, Sep 9: 14%, Sep 9: 14%, Sep 9: 14%, Sep 9: 14%, Sep 9: 14%, Sep 9: 14%, Sep 9: 14%, Sep 9: 14%, Sep 9: 15%, Sep 9: 15%, Sep 9: 15%, Sep 9: 14%, Sep 9: 14%, Sep 9: 14%, Sep 9: 14%, Sep 9: 14%, Sep 9: 14%, Sep 9: 14%, Sep 9: 14%, Sep 9: 14%, Sep 9: 14%, Sep 9: 14%, Sep 9: 14%, Sep 9: 14%, Sep 9: 15%, Sep 9: 15%, Sep 9: 15%, Sep 9: 15%, Sep 9: 14%, Sep 10: 15%, Sep 10: 15%, Sep 10: 14%, Sep 10: 14%, Sep 10: 14%, Sep 10: 14%, Sep 10: 14%, Sep 10: 14%, Sep 10: 14%, Sep 10: 14%, Sep 10: 14%, Sep 10: 14%, Sep 10: 14%, Sep 10: 14%, Sep 10: 14%, Sep 10: 15%, Sep 10: 15%, Sep 10: 14%, Sep 10: 14%, Sep 10: 14%, Sep 10: 15%, Sep 10: 15%, Sep 10: 15%, Sep 10: 16%, Sep 10: 16%, Sep 10: 16%, Sep 10: 16%, Sep 10: 16%, Sep 10: 16%, Sep 10: 15%, Sep 10: 15%, Sep 10: 16%, Sep 10: 16%, Sep 10: 15%, Sep 10: 15%, Sep 10: 16%, Sep 10: 16%, Sep 10: 16%, Sep 10: 16%, Sep 10: 16%, Sep 10: 16%, Sep 10: 16%, Sep 11: 16%, Sep 11: 15%, Sep 11: 15%, Sep 11: 16%, Sep 11: 16%, Sep 11: 16%, Sep 11: 16%, Sep 11: 16%, Sep 11: 16%, Sep 11: 16%, Sep 11: 16%, Sep 11: 17%, Sep 11: 17%, Sep 11: 16%, Sep 11: 17%, Sep 11: 16%, Sep 11: 16%, Sep 11: 16%, Sep 11: 16%, Sep 11: 15%, Sep 11: 15%, Sep 11: 15%, Sep 11: 16%, Sep 11: 16%, Sep 11: 16%, Sep 11: 16%, Sep 11: 15%, Sep 11: 15%, Sep 11: 15%, Sep 11: 15%, Sep 11: 15%, Sep 11: 15%, Sep 11: 15%, Sep 11: 15%, Sep 11: 16%, Sep 11: 15%, Sep 11: 16%, Sep 11: 16%, Sep 11: 15%, Sep 11: 16%, Sep 11: 15%, Sep 11: 16%, Sep 11: 15%, Sep 11: 16%, Sep 11: 16%, Sep 11: 16%, Sep 11: 16%, Sep 11: 16%, Sep 12: 16%, Sep 12: 15%, Sep 12: 15%, Sep 12: 15%, Sep 12: 15%, Sep 12: 15%, Sep 12: 15%, Sep 12: 15%, Sep 12: 16%, Sep 12: 15%, Sep 12: 15%, Sep 12: 16%, Sep 12: 16%, Sep 12: 16%, Sep 12: 16%, Sep 12: 15%, Sep 12: 15%, Sep 12: 15%, Sep 12: 15%, Sep 12: 15%, Sep 12: 15%, Sep 12: 15%, Sep 12: 16%, Sep 12: 16%, Sep 12: 16%, Sep 12: 16%, Sep 12: 16%, Sep 12: 16%, Sep 12: 16%, Sep 12: 16%, Sep 12: 16%, Sep 12: 15%, Sep 12: 15%, Sep 12: 17%, Sep 12: 17%, Sep 12: 16%, Sep 12: 16%, Sep 12: 17%, Sep 12: 17%, Sep 12: 17%, Sep 12: 17%, Sep 12: 16%, Sep 12: 16%, Sep 12: 16%, Sep 12: 16%, Sep 12: 16%, Sep 12: 16%, Sep 12: 16%, Sep 13: 16%, Sep 13: 16%, Sep 13: 16%, Sep 13: 16%, Sep 13: 16%, Sep 13: 16%, Sep 13: 17%, Sep 13: 16%, Sep 13: 16%, Sep 13: 16%, Sep 13: 17%, Sep 13: 17%, Sep 13: 17%, Sep 13: 16%, Sep 13: 16%, Sep 13: 17%, Sep 13: 17%, Sep 13: 17%, Sep 13: 17%, Sep 13: 17%, Sep 13: 16%, Sep 13: 16%, Sep 13: 16%, Sep 13: 16%, Sep 13: 16%, Sep 13: 16%, Sep 13: 16%, Sep 13: 16%, Sep 13: 16%, Sep 13: 16%, Sep 13: 16%, Sep 13: 16%, Sep 13: 16%, Sep 13: 16%, Sep 13: 16%, Sep 13: 17%, Sep 13: 16%, Sep 13: 16%, Sep 13: 16%, Sep 13: 16%, Sep 13: 16%, Sep 13: 17%, Sep 13: 17%, Sep 13: 16%, Sep 13: 16%, Sep 13: 16%, Sep 14: 16%, Sep 14: 16%, Sep 14: 16%, Sep 14: 16%, Sep 14: 16%, Sep 14: 16%, Sep 14: 16%, Sep 14: 16%, Sep 14: 16%, Sep 14: 16%, Sep 14: 16%, Sep 14: 16%, Sep 14: 16%, Sep 14: 16%, Sep 14: 16%, Sep 14: 16%, Sep 14: 16%, Sep 14: 16%, Sep 14: 16%, Sep 14: 16%, Sep 14: 16%, Sep 14: 16%, Sep 14: 16%, Sep 14: 16%, Sep 14: 17%, Sep 14: 16%, Sep 14: 16%, Sep 14: 16%, Sep 14: 16%, Sep 14: 16%, Sep 14: 16%, Sep 14: 17%, Sep 14: 17%, Sep 14: 17%, Sep 14: 17%, Sep 14: 17%, Sep 14: 17%, Sep 14: 17%, Sep 14: 17%, Sep 14: 16%, Sep 14: 16%, Sep 14: 16%, Sep 14: 17%, Sep 14: 17%, Sep 14: 17%, Sep 14: 17%, Sep 14: 16%, Sep 14: 17%, Sep 15: 17%, Sep 15: 17%, Sep 15: 17%, Sep 15: 17%, Sep 15: 16%, Sep 15: 16%, Sep 15: 16%, Sep 15: 16%, Sep 15: 16%, Sep 15: 16%, Sep 15: 16%, Sep 15: 16%, Sep 15: 16%, Sep 15: 16%, Sep 15: 16%, Sep 15: 16%, Sep 15: 16%, Sep 15: 17%, Sep 15: 17%, Sep 15: 16%, Sep 15: 16%, Sep 15: 16%, Sep 15: 16%, Sep 15: 16%, Sep 15: 16%, Sep 15: 16%, Sep 15: 16%, Sep 15: 16%, Sep 15: 16%, Sep 15: 16%, Sep 15: 16%, Sep 15: 16%, Sep 15: 16%, Sep 15: 16%, Sep 15: 16%, Sep 15: 17%, Sep 15: 17%, Sep 15: 17%, Sep 15: 17%, Sep 15: 17%, Sep 15: 16%, Sep 15: 16%, Sep 15: 16%, Sep 15: 16%, Sep 15: 16%, Sep 15: 16%, Sep 15: 16%, Sep 15: 17%, Sep 16: 17%, Sep 16: 16%, Sep 16: 16%, Sep 16: 16%, Sep 16: 16%, Sep 16: 16%, Sep 16: 17%, Sep 16: 17%, Sep 16: 16%, Sep 16: 17%, Sep 16: 17%, Sep 16: 17%, Sep 16: 16%, Sep 16: 16%, Sep 16: 16%, Sep 16: 16%, Sep 16: 16%, Sep 16: 18%, Sep 16: 18%, Sep 16: 17%, Sep 16: 17%, Sep 16: 17%, Sep 16: 17%, Sep 16: 17%, Sep 16: 18%, Sep 16: 17%, Sep 16: 17%, Sep 16: 17%, Sep 16: 18%, Sep 16: 17%, Sep 16: 17%, Sep 16: 17%, Sep 16: 17%, Sep 16: 17%, Sep 16: 16%, Sep 16: 16%, Sep 16: 16%, Sep 16: 16%, Sep 16: 18%, Sep 16: 18%, Sep 16: 18%, Sep 16: 17%, Sep 16: 17%, Sep 16: 17%, Sep 16: 17%, Sep 16: 17%, Sep 16: 17%, Sep 16: 17%, Sep 17: 17%, Sep 17: 16%, Sep 17: 16%, Sep 17: 16%, Sep 17: 16%, Sep 17: 16%, Sep 17: 16%, Sep 17: 16%, Sep 17: 16%, Sep 17: 16%, Sep 17: 16%, Sep 17: 16%, Sep 17: 16%, Sep 17: 16%, Sep 17: 16%, Sep 17: 16%, Sep 17: 16%, Sep 17: 16%, Sep 17: 16%, Sep 17: 16%, Sep 17: 16%, Sep 17: 16%, Sep 17: 16%, Sep 17: 16%, Sep 17: 16%, Sep 17: 16%, Sep 17: 16%, Sep 17: 16%, Sep 17: 16%, Sep 17: 16%, Sep 17: 16%, Sep 17: 17%, Sep 17: 17%, Sep 17: 16%, Sep 17: 16%, Sep 17: 17%, Sep 17: 17%, Sep 17: 16%, Sep 17: 16%, Sep 17: 16%, Sep 17: 16%, Sep 17: 16%, Sep 17: 16%, Sep 17: 17%, Sep 17: 17%, Sep 17: 17%, Sep 17: 17%, Sep 17: 17%, Sep 18: 17%, Sep 18: 16%, Sep 18: 17%, Sep 18: 16%, Sep 18: 16%, Sep 18: 17%, Sep 18: 17%, Sep 18: 16%, Sep 18: 16%, Sep 18: 16%, Sep 18: 16%, Sep 18: 16%, Sep 18: 16%, Sep 18: 16%, Sep 18: 16%, Sep 18: 16%, Sep 18: 16%, Sep 18: 16%, Sep 18: 16%, Sep 18: 17%, Sep 18: 16%, Sep 18: 16%, Sep 18: 17%, Sep 18: 17%, Sep 18: 16%, Sep 18: 17%, Sep 18: 16%, Sep 18: 16%, Sep 18: 16%, Sep 18: 16%, Sep 18: 16%, Sep 18: 16%, Sep 18: 16%, Sep 18: 16%, Sep 18: 17%, Sep 18: 17%, Sep 18: 16%, Sep 18: 16%, Sep 18: 17%, Sep 18: 16%, Sep 18: 15%, Sep 18: 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17%, Oct 7: 17%, Oct 7: 15%, Oct 7: 15%, Oct 7: 15%, Oct 8: 15%, Oct 8: 15%, Oct 8: 15%, Oct 8: 16%, Oct 8: 15%, Oct 8: 15%, Oct 8: 16%, Oct 8: 16%, Oct 8: 16%, Oct 8: 16%, Oct 8: 17%, Oct 8: 17%, Oct 8: 17%, Oct 8: 15%, Oct 8: 16%, Now: 16%

The WeeBet Angle

the U.S. invade Iran before 2027 on Polymarket

16% — Drifting on a well-backed number.

16%

Implied

$284.4k

Liquidity

+3pts

7-day momentum

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FAQ

What are the odds of Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027??: As of October 2026, the prediction market on Polymarket implies a 16% probability of YES.
Where can I trade Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027??: This contract trades on Polymarket. WeeBet links you to the source platform — we don't accept wagers.
When does this market resolve?: It is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027, at which point YES or NO pays out based on the platform's resolution source.

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