When does this market resolve

It is scheduled to resolve on October 5, 2026, at which point YES or NO pays out based on the platform's resolution source.

PolymarketPoliticsClosed☆ Watch

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

As of October 2026, Polymarket traders give “Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?” a 80% chance of resolving YES, down 7 points over the past 24 hours. $524.9k has traded in the last 24 hours, and it resolves on October 5, 2026. A YES price of 80% is the market-implied probability the event happens — not a guarantee. Verify the full resolution criteria on Polymarket before trading.

YES

80¢

down 7 points 24h

20¢

24h volume

$524.9k

Open interest

—

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Polymarket

as of Oct 15, 2026

80%

−7 pts(24h)

+25 pts(7d)

Rising momentum

YES probability for "Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?" moved from 52% to 80% across 1258 points. Current 80%. Data points: Sep 15: 52%, Sep 15: 52%, Sep 15: 52%, Sep 15: 52%, Sep 15: 52%, Sep 15: 52%, Sep 15: 52%, Sep 15: 53%, Sep 15: 53%, Sep 16: 53%, Sep 16: 54%, Sep 16: 53%, Sep 16: 53%, Sep 16: 53%, Sep 16: 53%, Sep 16: 55%, Sep 16: 55%, Sep 16: 55%, Sep 16: 54%, Sep 16: 55%, Sep 16: 55%, Sep 16: 55%, Sep 16: 55%, Sep 16: 55%, Sep 16: 55%, Sep 16: 55%, Sep 16: 54%, Sep 16: 54%, Sep 16: 54%, Sep 16: 54%, Sep 16: 54%, Sep 16: 54%, Sep 16: 54%, Sep 16: 54%, Sep 16: 55%, Sep 16: 55%, Sep 16: 55%, Sep 16: 55%, Sep 16: 54%, Sep 16: 54%, Sep 16: 54%, Sep 16: 54%, Sep 16: 54%, Sep 16: 54%, Sep 16: 54%, Sep 16: 54%, Sep 16: 54%, Sep 16: 54%, Sep 16: 54%, Sep 16: 54%, Sep 16: 54%, Sep 16: 54%, Sep 16: 54%, Sep 16: 54%, Sep 16: 54%, Sep 16: 54%, Sep 16: 54%, Sep 17: 54%, Sep 17: 54%, Sep 17: 54%, Sep 17: 54%, Sep 17: 54%, Sep 17: 54%, Sep 17: 54%, Sep 17: 54%, Sep 17: 54%, Sep 17: 54%, Sep 17: 54%, Sep 17: 54%, Sep 17: 54%, Sep 17: 54%, Sep 17: 54%, Sep 17: 54%, Sep 17: 55%, Sep 17: 55%, Sep 17: 54%, Sep 18: 54%, Sep 18: 54%, Sep 18: 55%, Sep 18: 54%, Sep 18: 55%, Sep 18: 55%, Sep 18: 55%, Sep 18: 55%, Sep 18: 55%, Sep 18: 55%, Sep 18: 55%, Sep 18: 55%, Sep 18: 55%, Sep 18: 55%, Sep 18: 55%, Sep 18: 55%, Sep 18: 55%, Sep 18: 55%, Sep 18: 55%, Sep 18: 55%, Sep 18: 55%, Sep 18: 55%, Sep 18: 55%, Sep 18: 55%, Sep 18: 55%, Sep 18: 56%, Sep 18: 56%, Sep 18: 55%, Sep 18: 56%, Sep 18: 56%, Sep 18: 56%, Sep 18: 57%, Sep 18: 56%, Sep 18: 56%, Sep 18: 56%, Sep 18: 56%, Sep 18: 56%, Sep 18: 56%, Sep 18: 56%, Sep 18: 56%, Sep 18: 56%, Sep 18: 56%, Sep 18: 56%, Sep 18: 56%, Sep 18: 56%, Sep 19: 57%, Sep 19: 56%, Sep 19: 57%, Sep 19: 57%, Sep 19: 57%, Sep 19: 57%, Sep 19: 57%, Sep 19: 57%, Sep 19: 57%, Sep 19: 57%, Sep 19: 57%, Sep 19: 57%, Sep 19: 57%, Sep 19: 57%, Sep 19: 57%, Sep 19: 57%, Sep 19: 57%, Sep 19: 57%, Sep 19: 57%, Sep 19: 57%, Sep 19: 57%, Sep 19: 57%, Sep 19: 57%, Sep 19: 57%, Sep 19: 57%, Sep 19: 57%, Sep 19: 57%, Sep 19: 57%, Sep 19: 57%, Sep 19: 57%, Sep 19: 57%, Sep 19: 57%, 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The WeeBet read

How we calculate this →

Implied probability: 80%
24h move: -7 pts
Liquidity: Deep
Fair value: 80%

Moved down 7 points in 24 hours — the market is repricing on something. Worth checking what news drove it before the price settles.

This market is closed

Trading has ended on this question. The price history above is the record of how the market read it.

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FAQ

What are the odds of Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election??: As of October 2026, the prediction market on Polymarket implies a 80% probability of YES (down 7 points in the last 24h).
Where can I trade Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election??: This contract trades on Polymarket. WeeBet links you to the source platform — we don't accept wagers.
When does this market resolve?: It is scheduled to resolve on October 5, 2026, at which point YES or NO pays out based on the platform's resolution source.

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