The Odds Desk · live
What the markets are saying
Real probabilities for the events people are watching — priced across Polymarket and Kalshi, refreshed continuously, never paywalled.
Biggest movers · live
Polymarket▲ 51 pts
Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?
56%
Polymarket▲ 37 pts
Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 October 5-11?
38%
Polymarket▼ 33 pts
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 8?
24%
Polymarket▲ 30 pts
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?
34%
Polymarket▲ 26 pts
Israel military action against Lebanon on October 15?
92%
Polymarket▲ 24 pts
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?
25%
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Politics
See all politics →Polymarket$57k
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
66%YES▼2
resolves 27dTrade on Polymarket ↗
Economy
See all economy →Polymarket$107k
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
84%YES▬
resolves 21dTrade on Polymarket ↗
Polymarket$212k
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
16%YES▲1
resolves 21dTrade on Polymarket ↗
Sports
See all sports →Polymarket$256k
China Open: Jelena Ostapenko vs Elise Mertens
5%YES▼37
resolves 4dTrade on Polymarket ↗
World
See all world →Polymarket$65k
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
18%YES▲1
resolves 3moTrade on Polymarket ↗
All markets
Every active market, ranked by activity across both platforms.
49 markets
| Market | Platform | YES | 24h Vol | Resolves | Watch / alert |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HouseBalance of Power: 2026 Midterms | polymarket | 27% | $403k | 26d | |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseBalance of Power: 2026 Midterms | polymarket | 63%▼1 | $217k | 26d | |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Which party will win the Senate in 2026? | polymarket | 66%▼2 | $57k | 26d | |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseBalance of Power: 2026 Midterms | polymarket | 9%▲1 | $361k | 26d | |
| Buccaneers vs. CowboysBuccaneers vs. Cowboys | polymarket | 19%▼1 | $56k | 16h | |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Which party will win the House in 2026? | polymarket | 91%▼2 | $282k | 26d | |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Which party will win the House in 2026? | polymarket | 10%▲1 | $254k | 26d | |
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Which party will win the Senate in 2026? | polymarket | 36%▼2 | $109k | 26d | |
| Will North Carolina enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026?North Carolina enacts data center moratorium by...? | polymarket | 5%▼2 | $58k | 2mo | |
| Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?Indiana enacts data center moratorium by...? | polymarket | 9%▼5 | $91k | 14mo | |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta BravesLos Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves | polymarket | 94%▲44 | $1.3M | 5d | |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Diego PadresMilwaukee Brewers vs. San Diego Padres | polymarket | 16%▼29 | $1.2M | 5d | |
| Will Louisiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?Louisiana enacts data center moratorium by...? | polymarket | 19%▼13 | $88k | 14mo | |
| Will Missouri enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?Missouri enacts data center moratorium by...? | polymarket | 25%▼10 | $64k | 14mo | |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | polymarket | 16% | $285k | 2mo | |
| Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?Anthropic announces bankruptcy by...? | polymarket | 9% | $148k | 14mo | |
| China Open: Jelena Ostapenko vs Elise MertensChina Open: Jelena Ostapenko vs Elise Mertens | polymarket | 5%▼37 | $256k | 3d | |
| Shanghai Rolex Masters, Qualification: Hugo Gaston vs Liam DraxlShanghai Rolex Masters, Qualification: Hugo Gaston vs Liam Draxl | polymarket | 14% | $181k | 3d | |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Fed Decision in October? | polymarket | 84% | $107k | 20d | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | polymarket | 18%▲1 | $65k | 2mo | |
| Will Ohio enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026?Ohio enacts data center moratorium by...? | polymarket | 4%▼1 | $53k | 2mo | |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Diego PadresMilwaukee Brewers vs. San Diego Padres | polymarket | 95%▲52 | $619k | 6d | |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | polymarket | 6% | $54k | 2mo | |
| Villena: Francesco Maestrelli vs Oliver TarvetVillena: Francesco Maestrelli vs Oliver Tarvet | polymarket | 12%▼25 | $272k | 5d | |
| Palermo: Federico Arnaboldi vs Kalin IvanovskiPalermo: Federico Arnaboldi vs Kalin Ivanovski | polymarket | 14% | $206k | 4d | |
| Mouilleron-Le-Captif: Clement Tabur vs Sascha Gueymard-WayenburgMouilleron-Le-Captif: Clement Tabur vs Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg | polymarket | 4%▼45 | $290k | 1d | |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? | polymarket | 37%▲1 | $100k | 19d | |
| Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?UEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion | polymarket | 22%▲1 | $51k | 7mo | |
| Shanghai Rolex Masters: Mattia Bellucci vs Yi ZhouShanghai Rolex Masters: Mattia Bellucci vs Yi Zhou | polymarket | 16% | $469k | 5d | |
| China Open: Katie Volynets vs Elise MertensChina Open: Katie Volynets vs Elise Mertens | polymarket | 16%▼46 | $468k | 19h | |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Presidential Election Winner 2028 | polymarket | 20% | $182k | 25mo | |
| LoL: Natus Vincere vs JD Gaming (BO3) - Demacia Cup Global Invitational Group StageLoL: Natus Vincere vs JD Gaming (BO3) - Demacia Cup Global Invitational Group Stage | polymarket | 26% | $450k | 9h | |
| Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?Next French Presidential Election | polymarket | 13% | $82k | 6mo | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? | polymarket | 9%▼1 | $403k | 7d | |
| Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?Next French Presidential Election | polymarket | 43%▲1 | $66k | 6mo | |
| Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?Indiana enacts data center moratorium by...? | polymarket | 14%▼1 | $63k | 27mo | |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | polymarket | 5% | $53k | 2mo | |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Fed Decision in October? | polymarket | 16%▲1 | $212k | 20d | |
| Shanghai Rolex Masters: Marco Trungelliti vs Rei SakamotoShanghai Rolex Masters: Marco Trungelliti vs Rei Sakamoto | polymarket | 5% | $91k | 5d | |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 | polymarket | 7% | $102k | 25mo | |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Presidential Election Winner 2028 | polymarket | 14%▲1 | $52k | 25mo | |
| Will Bitcoin be above $99,999.99 by Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET? | kalshi | 33% | $7k | 2mo | |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 | polymarket | 15% | $76k | 25mo | |
| Will there be a recession in 2027? — Yes | kalshi | 18% | $42k | 16mo | |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Texas Senate Election Winner | polymarket | 66% | $57k | 26d | |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Texas Senate Election Winner | polymarket | 35%▼1 | $91k | 26d | |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Presidential Election Winner 2028 | polymarket | 7%▼1 | $186k | 25mo | |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Presidential Election Winner 2028 | polymarket | 5% | $71k | 25mo | |
| Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028?Anthropic announces bankruptcy by...? | polymarket | 20%▲3 | $144k | 27mo |
How to read this
A YES price ≈ the market-implied probability the outcome happens. 24h volume and open interest are liquidity proxies — thin markets move fast on small trades. Always read the full resolution criteria on the source platform before trading.